Competition among Sellers in Securities Auctions

We study simultaneous security-bid second-price auctions with competition among sellers for potential bidders. The sellers compete by designing ordered sets of securities that the bidders can offer as payment for the assets. Upon observing auction designs, potential bidders decide which auctions to enter. We characterize all symmetric equilibria and show that there always exist equilibria in which auctions are in standard securities or their combinations. In large markets the unique equilibrium is auctions in pure cash. We extend the model for competition in reserve prices and show that binding reserve prices never constitute equilibrium as long as equilibrium security designs are not call options. (JEL D44, D82, G10)

Application of Key Events Analysis to Chemical Carcinogens and Noncarcinogens

The existence of thresholds for toxicants is a matter of debate in chemical risk assessment and regulation. Current risk assessment methods are based on the assumption that, in the absence of sufficient data, carcinogenesis does not have a threshold, while noncarcinogenic endpoints are assumed to be thresholded. Advances in our fundamental understanding of the events that underlie toxicity are providing opportunities to address these assumptions about thresholds. A key events dose-response analytic framework was used to evaluate three aspects of toxicity. The first section illustrates how a fundamental understanding of the mode of action for the hepatic toxicity and the hepatocarcinogenicity of chloroform in rodents can replace the assumption of low-dose linearity. The second section describes how advances in our understanding of the molecular aspects of carcinogenesis allow us to consider the critical steps in genotoxic carcinogenesis in a key events framework. The third section deals with the case of endocrine disrupters, where the most significant question regarding thresholds is the possible additivity to an endogenous background of hormonal activity. Each of the examples suggests that current assumptions about thresholds can be refined. Understanding inter-individual variability in the events involved in toxicological effects may enable a true population threshold(s) to be identified

PolyTB: a genomic variation map for Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is the second major cause of death from an infectious disease worldwide. Recent advances in DNA sequencing are leading to the ability to generate whole genome information in clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis complex (MTBC). The identification of informative genetic variants such as phylogenetic markers and those associated with drug resistance or virulence will help barcode Mtb in the context of epidemiological, diagnostic and clinical studies. Mtb genomic datasets are increasingly available as raw sequences, which are potentially difficult and computer intensive to process, and compare across studies. Here we have processed the raw sequence data (>1500 isolates, eight studies) to compile a catalogue of SNPs (n = 74,039, 63% non-synonymous, 51.1% in more than one isolate, i.e. non-private), small indels (n = 4810) and larger structural variants (n = 800). We have developed the PolyTB web-based tool (http://pathogenseq.lshtm.ac.uk/polytb) to visualise the resulting variation and important meta-data (e.g. in silico inferred strain-types, location) within geographical map and phylogenetic views. This resource will allow researchers to identify polymorphisms within candidate genes of interest, as well as examine the genomic diversity and distribution of strains. PolyTB source code is freely available to researchers wishing to develop similar tools for their pathogen of interest

Appropriate disclosure of a diagnosis of dementia : identifying the key behaviours of 'best practice'

Background: Despite growing evidence that many people with dementia want to know their diagnosis, there is wide variation in attitudes of professionals towards disclosure. The disclosure of the diagnosis of dementia is increasingly recognised as being a process rather than a one-off behaviour. However, the different behaviours that contribute to this process have not been comprehensively defined. No intervention studies to improve diagnostic disclosure in dementia have been reported to date. As part of a larger study to develop an intervention to promote appropriate disclosure, we sought to identify important disclosure behaviours and explore whether supplementing a literature review with other methods would result in the identification of new behaviours. Methods: To identify a comprehensive list of behaviours in disclosure we conducted a literature review, interviewed people with dementia and informal carers, and used a consensus process involving health and social care professionals. Content analysis of the full list of behaviours was carried out. Results: Interviews were conducted with four people with dementia and six informal carers. Eight health and social care professionals took part in the consensus panel. From the interviews, consensus panel and literature review 220 behaviours were elicited, with 109 behaviours over-lapping. The interviews and consensus panel elicited 27 behaviours supplementary to the review. Those from the interviews appeared to be self-evident but highlighted deficiencies in current practice and from the panel focused largely on balancing the needs of people with dementia and family members. Behaviours were grouped into eight categories: preparing for disclosure; integrating family members; exploring the patient's perspective; disclosing the diagnosis; responding to patient reactions; focusing on quality of life and well-being; planning for the future; and communicating effectively. Conclusion: This exercise has highlighted the complexity of the process of disclosing a diagnosis of dementia in an appropriate manner. It confirms that many of the behaviours identified in the literature (often based on professional opinion rather than empirical evidence) also resonate with people with dementia and informal carers. The presence of contradictory behaviours emphasises the need to tailor the process of disclosure to individual patients and carers. Our combined methods may be relevant to other efforts to identify and define complex clinical practices for further study.This project is funded by UK Medical Research Council, Grant reference number G0300999

Dietary supplementation with inulin-propionate ester or inulin improves insulin sensitivity in adults with overweight and obesity with distinct effects on the gut microbiota, plasma metabolome and systemic inflammatory responses: a randomised cross-over trial

Objective: To investigate the underlying mechanisms behind changes in glucose homeostasis with delivery of propionate to the human colon by comprehensive and coordinated analysis of gut bacterial composition, plasma metabolome and immune responses. Design: Twelve non-diabetic adults with overweight and obesity received 20 g/day of inulin-propionate ester (IPE), designed to selectively deliver propionate to the colon, a high-fermentable fibre control (inulin) and a low-fermentable fibre control (cellulose) in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over design. Outcome measurements of metabolic responses, inflammatory markers and gut bacterial composition were analysed at the end of each 42-day supplementation period. Results: Both IPE and inulin supplementation improved insulin resistance compared with cellulose supplementation, measured by homeostatic model assessment 2 (mean±SEM 1.23±0.17 IPE vs 1.59±0.17 cellulose, p=0.001; 1.17±0.15 inulin vs 1.59±0.17 cellulose, p=0.009), with no differences between IPE and inulin (p=0.272). Fasting insulin was only associated positively with plasma tyrosine and negatively with plasma glycine following inulin supplementation. IPE supplementation decreased proinflammatory interleukin-8 levels compared with cellulose, while inulin had no impact on the systemic inflammatory markers studied. Inulin promoted changes in gut bacterial populations at the class level (increased Actinobacteria and decreased Clostridia) and order level (decreased Clostridiales) compared with cellulose, with small differences at the species level observed between IPE and cellulose. Conclusion: These data demonstrate a distinctive physiological impact of raising colonic propionate delivery in humans, as improvements in insulin sensitivity promoted by IPE and inulin were accompanied with different effects on the plasma metabolome, gut bacterial populations and markers of systemic inflammation

Impact of life stage and duration of exposure on arsenic-induced proliferative lesions and neoplasia in C3H mice

Epidemiological studies suggest that chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic is associated with cancer of the skin, urinary bladder and lung as well as the kidney and liver. Previous experimental studies have demonstrated increased incidence of liver, lung, ovary, and uterine tumors in mice exposed to 85 ppm (∼8 mg/kg) inorganic arsenic during gestation. To further characterize age susceptibility to arsenic carcinogenesis we administered 85 ppm inorganic arsenic in drinking water to C3H mice during gestation, prior to pubescence and post-pubescence to compare proliferative lesion and tumor outcomes over a one-year exposure period. Inorganic arsenic significantly increased the incidence of hyperplasia in urinary bladder (48%) and oviduct (36%) in female mice exposed prior to pubescence (beginning on postnatal day 21 and extending through one year) compared to control mice (19 and 5%, respectively). Arsenic also increased the incidence of hyperplasia in urinary bladder (28%) of female mice continuously exposed to arsenic (beginning on gestation day 8 and extending though one year) compared to gestation only exposed mice (0%). In contrast, inorganic arsenic significantly decreased the incidence of tumors in liver (0%) and adrenal glands (0%) of male mice continuously exposed from gestation through one year, as compared to levels in control (30 and 65%, respectively) and gestation only (33 and 55%, respectively) exposed mice. Together, these results suggest that continuous inorganic arsenic exposure at 85 ppm from gestation through one year increases the incidence and severity of urogenital proliferative lesions in female mice and decreases the incidence of liver and adrenal tumors in male mice. The paradoxical nature of these effects may be related to altered lipid metabolism, the effective dose in each target organ, and/or the shorter one-year observational period

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

A natural mutation in Pisum sativum L. (pea) alters starch assembly and improves glucose homeostasis in humans

Elevated postprandial glucose (PPG) is a significant risk factor for non-communicable diseases globally. Currently, there is a limited understanding of how starch structures within a carbohydrate-rich food matrix interact with the gut luminal environment to control PPG. Here, we use pea seeds (Pisum sativum) and pea flour, derived from two near-identical pea genotypes (BC1/19RR and BC1/19rr) differing primarily in the type of starch accumulated, to explore the contribution of starch structure, food matrix and intestinal environment to PPG. Using stable isotope 13C-labelled pea seeds, coupled with synchronous gastric, duodenal and plasma sampling in vivo, we demonstrate that maintenance of cell structure and changes in starch morphology are closely related to lower glucose availability in the small intestine, resulting in acutely lower PPG and promotion of changes in the gut bacterial composition associated with long-term metabolic health improvements