Individual differences in causal learning and decision making

This is an accepted author manuscript of an article subsequently published by Elsevier. The final published version can be found here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2005.04.003In judgment and decision making tasks, people tend to neglect the overall frequency of base-rates when they estimate the probability of an event; this is known as the base-rate fallacy. In causal learning, despite people s accuracy at judging causal strength according to one or other normative model (i.e., Power PC, DP), they tend to misperceive base-rate information (e.g., the cause density effect). The present study investigates the relationship between causal learning and decision making by asking whether people weight base-rate information in the same way when estimating causal strength and when making judgments or inferences about the likelihood of an event. The results suggest that people differ according to the weight they place on base-rate information, but the way individuals do this is consistent across causal and decision making tasks. We interpret the results as reflecting a tendency to differentially weight base-rate information which generalizes to a variety of tasks. Additionally, this study provides evidence that causal learning and decision making share some component processes

Trait urgency and gambling problems in young people by age: The mediating role of decision-making processes

Although the personality trait of urgency has been linked to problem gambling, less is known about psychological mechanisms that mediate the relationship between urgency and problem gambling. One individual variable of potential relevance to impulsivity and addictive disorders is age. The aims of this study were to examine: (i) a theoretical model associating urgency and gambling problems, (ii) the mediating effects of decision-making processes (operationalized as preference for small/immediate rewards and lower levels of deliberative decision-making); and (iii) age differences in these relationships. Participants comprised 986 students (64% male; mean age=19.51 years; SD=2.30) divided into three groups: 16-17 years, 18-21 years, and 22-25 years. All participants completed measures of urgency, problem gambling, and a delay-discounting questionnaire involving choices between a smaller amount of money received immediately and a larger amount of money received later. Participants were also asked to reflect on their decision-making process. Compared to those aged 16-17 years and 22-25 years, participants aged 18-21 years had a higher level of gambling problems and decreased scores on lower levels of deliberative decision-making. Higher levels of urgency were associated with higher levels of gambling problems. The association was mediated by a lower level of deliberative decision-making and preference for an immediate/small reward. A distinct pathway was observed for lower levels of deliberative decision-making. Young people who tend to act rashly in response to extreme moods, had lower levels of deliberative decision-making, that in turn were positively related to gambling problems. This study highlights unique decision-making pathways through which urgency trait may operate, suggesting that those developing prevention and/or treatment strategies may want to consider the model’s variables, including urgency, delay discounting, and deliberative decision-making

Crime as risk taking

Engagement in criminal activity may be viewed as risk-taking behaviour as it has both benefits and drawbacks that are probabilistic. In two studies, we examined how individuals' risk perceptions can inform our understanding of their intentions to engage in criminal activity. Study 1 measured youths' perceptions of the value and probability of the benefits and drawbacks of engaging in three common crimes (i.e. shoplifting, forgery, and buying illegal drugs), and examined how well these perceptions predicted youths' forecasted engagement in these crimes, controlling for their past engagement. We found that intentions to engage in criminal activity were best predicted by the perceived value of the benefits that may be obtained, irrespective of their probabilities or the drawbacks that may also be incurred. Study 2 specified the benefit and drawback that youth thought about and examined another crime (i.e. drinking and driving). The findings of Study 1 were replicated under these conditions. The present research supports a limited rationality perspective on criminal intentions, and can have implications for crime prevention/intervention strategies

New insights on structure and stratigraphic interpretation for assessing the hydrocarbon potentiality of the offshore Nile Delta basin, Egypt

The study area lies around the petroleum provinces of the Egyptian Offshore Nile Delta basin. The existing exploration data are sparse, and any effort made on the strati-structural interpretation is challenging for exploratory drilling campaigns, even with meager well control. Keeping in view the issues and major challenges, the authors propose new methodologies, tools and new insights into the interpretation of the existing data and information, to make the study area more attractive for investors and detailed exploration studies. The published geological work existing within the vicinity of the study area is an added value to the new insights of current interpretation and knowledge acquisition. Pliocene–Pleistocene section is the main target in the study area, since it has quality reservoirs, holding commercial hydrocarbons. Pre-salt source rocks may have charged the reservoirs in the study area. Structural complexities and heterogeneities at target levels are likely to impact the seismic wavelet property intricacies and thus the data processing qualities. Post- and pre-salt tectonics in the northern part of Sinai, the Nile Cone, and how they affect the structural framework and the seismic interpretation work in the study area are described. For the purpose of understanding the combinational trapping mechanism, stratigraphic features and the structural geology are integrated using new tools and technologies. Several strati-structural plays are interpreted in the study area that support the detailed exploration campaigns, and the existing major hydrocarbon plays associated within shelf, slope and deep-marine geological events in nearby offshore regions. Diapir salt, rotated fault blocks and growth faults within syn-sediment systems are other plays to be investigated. The study is an effort of compiled work from many published sources, putting all ideas into a positive perspective and has better understanding of new opportunities, leads and prospects for investment purposes in the Nile Delta offshore basin

Impact of atrial fibrillation on clinical outcomes among patients with coronary artery disease undergoing revascularisation with drug-eluting stents

Coronary artery disease (CAD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are major determinants of morbidity and mortality. A combined treatment with antiplatelet agents and vitamin K antagonists limits the risk of stent thrombosis and stroke while increasing the rate of bleeding. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on long-term clinical outcomes in patients with CAD undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents (DES)

Long-Term Survival in a Large Cohort of Patients with Venous Thrombosis: Incidence and Predictors

Linda Flinterman and colleagues report on the long-term mortality rate for individuals who have experienced a first venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. They describe an ongoing elevated risk of death for individuals who had experienced a venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism as compared to controls, for up to eight years after the event

People’s understanding of verbal risk descriptors in patient information leaflets : a cross-sectional national survey of 18- to 65-year-olds in England

Introduction Evidence suggests the current verbal risk descriptors used to communicate side effect risk in patient information leaflets (PILs) are overestimated. Objectives The aim was to establish how people understand the verbal risk descriptors recommended for use in PILs by the European Commission (EC), and alternative verbal risk descriptors, in the context of mild and severe side effects. Methods A cross-sectional online survey was carried out by a market research company recruiting participants aged between 18 and 65 years living in England. Data were collected between 18 March and 1 April 2016. Participants were given a hypothetical scenario regarding the risk of mild or severe medication side effects and asked to estimate how many out of 10,000 people would be affected for each of the verbal risk descriptors being tested. Results A total of 1003 participants were included in the final sample. The risks conveyed by the EC recommended verbal risk descriptors were greatly overestimated by participants. Two distinct distributions were apparent for participant estimates of side effect risks: those for ‘high risk’ verbal descriptors (e.g. ‘common’, ‘likely’, ‘high chance’) and those for ‘low risk’ verbal descriptors (e.g. ‘uncommon’, ‘unlikely’, ‘low chance’). Within these two groups, the distributions were near to identical regardless of what adverb (e.g. very, high, fair) or adjective (e.g. common, likely, chance) was used. The EC recommended verbal risk descriptors were more likely to be understood in accordance with their intended meanings when describing severe side effects. Very few demographic or psychological factors were consistently associated with how well participants understood the EC recommended verbal risk descriptors. Discussion The current verbal risk descriptors used in PILs are ineffective at best and misleading at worst. Discontinuing the use of verbal risk descriptors would limit the likelihood of people overestimating the risk of side effects

Long-Lasting Inhibitory Effects of Fetal Liver Mesenchymal Stem Cells on T-Lymphocyte Proliferation

Human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSC) are multipotent progenitor cells that have transient immunomodulatory properties on Natural Killer (NK) cells, Dendritic Cells (DC), and T cells. This study compared the use of MSC isolated from bone marrow and fetal liver (FL-MSC) to determine which displayed the most efficient immunosuppressive effects on T cell activation. Although both types of MSC exhibit similar phenotype profile, FL-MSC displays a much more extended in vitro life-span and immunomodulatory properties. When co-cultured with CD3/CD28-stimulated T cells, both BM-MSC and FL-MSC affected T cell proliferation by inhibiting their entry into the cell cycle, by inducing the down-regulation of phospho-retinoblastoma (pRb), cyclins A and D1, as well as up-regulating p27kip1expression. The T cell inhibition by MSC was not due to the soluble HLA-G5 isoform, but to the surface expression of HLA-G1, as shown by the need of cell-cell contact and by the use of neutralizing anti-HLA-G antibodies. To note, in a HLA-G-mediated fashion, MSC facilitated the expansion of a CD4low/CD8low T subset that had decreased secretion of IFN-γ, and an induced secretion of the immunomodulatory cytokine IL-10. Because of their longer lasting in vitro immunosuppressive properties, mainly mediated by HLA-G, and their more efficient induction of IL-10 production and T cell apoptosis, fetal liver MSC could be considered a new tool for MSC therapy to prevent allograft rejection

A role for pharmacists in community-based post-discharge warfarin management: protocol for the 'the role of community pharmacy in post hospital management of patients initiated on warfarin' study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Shorter periods of hospitalisation and increasing warfarin use have placed stress on community-based healthcare services to care for patients taking warfarin after hospital discharge, a high-risk period for these patients. A previous randomised controlled trial demonstrated that a post-discharge service of 4 home visits and point-of-care (POC) International Normalised Ratio (INR) testing by a trained pharmacist improved patients' outcomes. The current study aims to modify this previously trialled service model to implement and then evaluate a sustainable program to enable the smooth transition of patients taking warfarin from the hospital to community setting.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The service will be trialled in 8 sites across 3 Australian states using a prospective, controlled cohort study design. Patients discharged from hospital taking warfarin will receive 2 or 3 home visits by a trained 'home medicines review (HMR)-accredited' pharmacist in their 8 to 10 days after hospital discharge. Visits will involve a HMR, comprehensive warfarin education, and POC INR monitoring in collaboration with patients' general practitioners (GPs) and community pharmacists. Patient outcomes will be compared to those in a control, or 'usual care', group. The primary outcome measure will be the proportion of patients experiencing a major bleeding event in the 90 days after discharge. Secondary outcome measures will include combined major bleeding and thromboembolic events, death, cessation of warfarin therapy, INR control at 8 days post-discharge and unplanned hospital readmissions from any cause. Stakeholder satisfaction will be assessed using structured postal questionnaire mailed to patients, GPs, community pharmacists and accredited pharmacists at the completion of their study involvement.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study design incorporates several aspects of prior interventions that have been demonstrated to improve warfarin management, including POC INR testing, warfarin education and home visits by trained pharmacists. It faces several potential challenges, including the tight timeframe for patient follow-up in the post-discharge period. Its strengths lie in a strong multidisciplinary team and the utilisation of existing healthcare frameworks. It is hoped that this study will provide the evidence to support the national roll-out of the program as a new Australian professional community pharmacy service.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Number <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?ID=82959">12608000334303</a>.</p