Modelling the evolution of distributions : an application to major league baseball

We develop Bayesian techniques for modelling the evolution of entire distributions over time and apply them to the distribution of team performance in Major League baseball for the period 1901-2000. Such models offer insight into many key issues (e.g. competitive balance) in a way that regression-based models cannot. The models involve discretizing the distribution and then modelling the evolution of the bins over time through transition probability matrices. We allow for these matrices to vary over time and across teams. We find that, with one exception, the transition probability matrices (and, hence, competitive balance) have been remarkably constant across time and over teams. The one exception is the Yankees, who have outperformed all other teams

Programmable Oscillator

A programmable oscillator is a frequency synthesizer with an output phase that tracks an arbitrary function. An offset, phase-locked loop circuit is used in combination with an error control feedback loop to precisely control the output phase of the oscillator. To down-convert the received signal, several stages of mixing may be employed with the compensation for the time-base distortion of the carrier occurring at any one of those stages. In the Goldstone Solar System Radar (GSSR), the compensation occurs in the mixing from an intermediate frequency (IF), whose value is dependent on the station and band, to a common IF used in the final stage of down-conversion to baseband. The programmable oscillator (PO) is used in the final stage of down-conversion to generate the IF, along with a time-varying phase component that matches the time-base distortion of the carrier, thus removing it from the final down-converted signal

Revenue divergence and competitive balance in a divisional sports league

The North American model of resource allocation in professional sports leagues is adapted for English (association) football. The theoretical relationship between revenue and competitive balance is shown to be robust with respect to changes in teams’ objectives and labour market conditions. Empirical revenue functions are reported for 1926-1999. These indicate a shift in the composition of demand favouring big-city teams and an increase in the sensitivity of revenue to performance. An analysis of match results in the FA Cup competition suggests an increase in competitive imbalance between teams at different levels of the league’s divisional hierarchy, as the theory suggests

Secular Evolution of Galaxy Morphologies

Today we have numerous evidences that spirals evolve dynamically through various secular or episodic processes, such as bar formation and destruction, bulge growth and mergers, sometimes over much shorter periods than the standard galaxy age of 10-15 Gyr. This, coupled to the known properties of the Hubble sequence, leads to a unique sense of evolution: from Sm to Sa. Linking this to the known mass components provides new indications on the nature of dark matter in galaxies. The existence of large amounts of yet undetected dark gas appears as the most natural option. Bounds on the amount of dark stars can be given since their formation is mostly irreversible and requires obviously a same amount of gas.Comment: 8 pages, Latex2e, crckapb.sty macros, 1 Postscript figure, replaced with TeX source; To be published in the proceeedings of the "Dust-Morphology" conference, Johannesburg, 22-26 January, 1996, D. Block (ed.), (Kluwer Dordrecht

Modeling the R2* relaxivity of blood at 1.5 Tesla

BOLD (Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent) imaging is used in fMRI to show differences in activation of the brain based on the relative changes of the T2* (= 1/R2*) signal of the blood. However, quantification of blood oxygenation level based on the T2* signal has been hindered by the lack of a predictive model which accurately correlates the T2* signal to the oxygenation level of blood. The T2* signal decay in BOLD imaging is generated due to blood containing paramagnetic deoxyhemoglobin (in comparison to diamagnetic oxyhemoglobin). This generates local field inhomogeneities, which cause protons to experience different phase shifts, leading to dephasing and the MR signal decay. The blood T2* signal has been shown to decay with a complex behavior1, termed Non-Lorenztian, and thus is not adequately described by the traditional model of simplemono-exponential decay. Theoretical calculations show that diffusion narrowing substantially affects signal loss in our data. Over the past decade, several theoretical models have been proposed to describe this Non-Lorenztian behavior in the blood T2* signal in BOLD fMRI imaging. The goal of this project was to investigate different models which have been proposed over the years and determine a semi-phenomenological model for the T2* behaviorusing actual MR blood data

Piecewise Parabolic Method on a Local Stencil for Magnetized Supersonic Turbulence Simulation

Stable, accurate, divergence-free simulation of magnetized supersonic turbulence is a severe test of numerical MHD schemes and has been surprisingly difficult to achieve due to the range of flow conditions present. Here we present a new, higher order-accurate, low dissipation numerical method which requires no additional dissipation or local "fixes" for stable execution. We describe PPML, a local stencil variant of the popular PPM algorithm for solving the equations of compressible ideal magnetohydrodynamics. The principal difference between PPML and PPM is that cell interface states are evolved rather that reconstructed at every timestep, resulting in a compact stencil. Interface states are evolved using Riemann invariants containing all transverse derivative information. The conservation laws are updated in an unsplit fashion, making the scheme fully multidimensional. Divergence-free evolution of the magnetic field is maintained using the higher order-accurate constrained transport technique of Gardiner and Stone. The accuracy and stability of the scheme is documented against a bank of standard test problems drawn from the literature. The method is applied to numerical simulation of supersonic MHD turbulence, which is important for many problems in astrophysics, including star formation in dark molecular clouds. PPML accurately reproduces in three-dimensions a transition to turbulence in highly compressible isothermal gas in a molecular cloud model. The low dissipation and wide spectral bandwidth of this method make it an ideal candidate for direct turbulence simulations.Comment: 28 pages, 18 figure

A physical activity intervention for children with type 1 diabetes- steps to active kids with diabetes (STAK-D): a feasibility study

Background This study describes the development and feasibility evaluation of a physical activity intervention for children with type 1 diabetes called ‘Steps to Active Kids with Diabetes’ (STAK-D). It aims to explore the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention and study design. Methods Thirteen children aged 9-11 years and their parents were recruited from one paediatric diabetes clinic. A process evaluation was conducted alongside a two-arm randomised feasibility trial, including assessment of rate of recruitment, adherence, retention, data completion and burden, implementation fidelity and adverse events. Qualitative interviews with children (n=9), parents (n=8), healthcare professionals (n=3) and STAK-D volunteers (n=8) explored intervention acceptability. Interviews were analysed thematically. Results Rate of recruitment was 25%, with 77% retention at 3-month follow-up. Study burden was low, data completion was high and the intervention was delivered as per protocol. No serious adverse event was reported. Engagement with intervention materials was generally good, but attendance at group activity sessions was low due to logistical barriers. Interview analysis identified preferred methods of recruitment, motivations for recruitment, barriers and facilitators to adherence, the experience of data collection, experience of the STAK-D programme and its perceived benefits. Conclusions STAK-D was feasible and acceptable to children, their parents and healthcare professionals, but group sessions may present logistical issues. Recruitment and retention may be improved with a clinic-wide approach to recruitment. Trial registration This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02144337 (16/01/2014). Keywords Children, feasibility study, intervention, paediatric diabetes, physical activity, process evaluation, self-efficacy, type 1 diabete

The Relationship between Therapeutic Alliance and Service User Satisfaction in Mental Health Inpatient Wards and Crisis House Alternatives: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background Poor service user experiences are often reported on mental health inpatient wards. Crisis houses are an alternative, but evidence is limited. This paper investigates therapeutic alliances in acute wards and crisis houses, exploring how far stronger therapeutic alliance may underlie greater client satisfaction in crisis houses. Methods and Findings Mixed methods were used. In the quantitative component, 108 crisis house and 247 acute ward service users responded to measures of satisfaction, therapeutic relationships, informal peer support, recovery and negative events experienced during the admission. Linear regressions were conducted to estimate the association between service setting and measures, and to model the factors associated with satisfaction. Qualitative interviews exploring therapeutic alliances were conducted with service users and staff in each setting and analysed thematically. Results We found that therapeutic alliances, service user satisfaction and informal peer support were greater in crisis houses than on acute wards, whilst self-rated recovery and numbers of negative events were lower. Adjusted multivariable analyses suggest that therapeutic relationships, informal peer support and negative experiences related to staff may be important factors in accounting for greater satisfaction in crisis houses. Qualitative results suggest factors that influence therapeutic alliances include service user perceptions of basic human qualities such as kindness and empathy in staff and, at service level, the extent of loss of liberty and autonomy. Conclusions and Implications We found that service users experience better therapeutic relationships and higher satisfaction in crisis houses compared to acute wards, although we cannot exclude the possibility that differences in service user characteristics contribute to this. This finding provides some support for the expansion of crisis house provision. Further research is needed to investigate why acute ward service users experience a lack of compassion and humanity from ward staff and how this could be changed

The Gas Content in Galactic Disks: Correlation with Kinematics

We consider the relationship between the total HI mass in late-type galaxies and the kinematic properties of their disks. The mass $M_HI$ for galaxies with a wide variety of properties, from dwarf dIrr galaxies with active star formation to giant low-brightness galaxies, is shown to correlate with the product $V_c R_0$ ($V_c$ is the rotational velocity, and $R_0$ is the radial photometric disks scale length), which characterizes the specific angular momentum of the disk. This relationship, along with the anticorrelation between the relative mass of HI in a galaxy and $V_c$, can be explained in terms of the previously made assumption that the gas density in the disks of most galaxies is maintained at a level close to the threshold (marginal) stability of a gaseous layer to local gravitational perturbations. In this case, the regulation mechanism of the star formation rate associated with the growth of local gravitational instability in the gaseous layer must play a crucial role in the evolution of the gas content in the galactic disk.Comment: revised version to appear in Astronomy Letters, 8 pages, 5 EPS figure