Why Quantum Theory is Possibly Wrong

Quantum theory is a tremendously successful physical theory, but nevertheless suffers from two serious problems: the measurement problem and the problem of interpretational underdetermination. The latter, however, is largely overlooked as a genuine problem of its own. Both problems concern the doctrine of realism, but pull, quite curiously, into opposite directions. The measurement problem can be captured such that due to scientific realism about quantum theory common sense anti-realism follows, while theory underdetermination usually counts as an argument against scientific realism. I will also consider the more refined distinctions of ontic and epistemic realism and demonstrate that quantum theory in its most viable interpretations conflicts with at least one of the various realism claims. A way out of the conundrum is to come to the bold conclusion that quantum theory is, possibly, wrong (in the realist sense)

Martens in the matrix: the importance of nonforested habitats for forest carnivores in fragmented landscapes

The intervening landscape between patches of forest (i.e., matrix) has enormous potential to mitigate the negative effects of forest fragmentation. However, to release this potential requires understanding of how individual species perceive matrix. Here we investigated use of matrix by pine martens (Martes martes) in a region with low forest cover (Scotland). We radiotracked 11 martens to determine their habitat preferences, then combined our data with those published from 5 additional Scottish landscapes to examine how home-range size (i.e., population density) and diet of martens varied with forest edge density (i.e., fragmentation). Our tracking showed that although mature forest was the most preferred habitat, certain matrix habitats (scrub and tussock grassland) also were consistently selected. These 2 habitats provided martens with fundamental resources that are of limited availability within intensively managed plantation forests: den sites and primary prey (Microtus agrestis). Our synthesis of data across landscapes indicated martens benefit from supplemental resources in matrix habitats; consumption of small mammals increased with fragmentation and coincided with an initial increase in marten population densities. However, population densities of martens decreased once fragmentation passed a threshold level. Our results demonstrate that habitat complementation at the landscape-scale is essential for some forest-associated species. Resource supplementation from matrix habitats may be particularly important in regions with a long history of low-forest cover or where forest cover is now dominated by afforested plantations, which may lack essential resources

Balloon-borne radiometer measurement of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude stratospheric HNO3 profiles spanning 12 years

Low-resolution atmospheric thermal emission spectra collected by balloon-borne radiometers over the time span of 1990–2002 are used to retrieve vertical profiles of HNO3, CFC-11 and CFC-12 volume mixing ratios between approximately 10 and 35 km altitude. All of the data analyzed have been collected from launches from a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude site, during late summer, when stratospheric dynamic variability is at a minimum. The retrieval technique incorporates detailed forward modeling of the instrument and the radiative properties of the atmosphere, and obtains a best fit between modeled and measured spectra through a combination of onion-peeling and global optimization steps. The retrieved HNO3 profiles are consistent over the 12-year period, and are consistent with recent measurements by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier transform spectrometer satellite instrument. This suggests that, to within the errors of the 1990 measurements, there has been no significant change in the HNO3 summer mid-latitude profile

Ullemar's formula for the Jacobian of the complex moment mapping

The complex moment sequence m(P) is assigned to a univalent polynomial P by the Cauchy transform of the P(D), where D is the unit disk. We establish the representation of the Jacobian det dm(P) in terms of roots of the derivative P'. Combining this result with the special decomposition for the Hurwitz determinants, we prove a formula for the Jacobian which was previously conjectured by C. Ullemar. As a consequence, we show that the boundary of the class of all locally univalent polynomials in $U$ is contained in the union of three irreducible algebraic surfaces.Comment: 14 pages, submitted for "Complex Variables. Theory and Application

Machine Learning and Irresponsible Inference: Morally Assessing the Training Data for Image Recognition Systems

Just as humans can draw conclusions responsibly or irresponsibly, so too can computers. Machine learning systems that have been trained on data sets that include irresponsible judgments are likely to yield irresponsible predictions as outputs. In this paper I focus on a particular kind of inference a computer system might make: identification of the intentions with which a person acted on the basis of photographic evidence. Such inferences are liable to be morally objectionable, because of a way in which they are presumptuous. After elaborating this moral concern, I explore the possibility that carefully procuring the training data for image recognition systems could ensure that the systems avoid the problem. The lesson of this paper extends beyond just the particular case of image recognition systems and the challenge of responsibly identifying a person’s intentions. Reflection on this particular case demonstrates the importance (as well as the difficulty) of evaluating machine learning systems and their training data from the standpoint of moral considerations that are not encompassed by ordinary assessments of predictive accuracy

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an ecosystem approach:a stress-testing case study for the UK

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses

Explaining Evidence Denial as Motivated Pragmatically Rational Epistemic Irrationality

This paper introduces a model for evidence denial that explains this behavior as a manifestation of rationality and it is based on the contention that social values (measurable as utilities) often underwrite these sorts of responses. Moreover, it is contended that the value associated with group membership in particular can override epistemic reason when the expected utility of a belief or belief system is great. However, it is also true that it appears to be the case that it is still possible for such unreasonable believers to reverse this sort of dogmatism and to change their beliefs in a way that is epistemically rational. The conjecture made here is that we should expect this to happen only when the expected utility of the beliefs in question dips below a threshold where the utility value of continued dogmatism and the associated group membership is no longer sufficient to motivate defusing the counter-evidence that tells against such epistemically irrational beliefs

Fur and faeces: an experimental assessment of non-invasive DNA sampling for the European pine marten

Non-invasive genetic sampling using materials such as faeces or hair can be used to monitor wildlife populations, although DNA quality is often poor. Improving sampling efficiency and minimising factors that reduce DNA quality are therefore critical. After a severe decline, the European pine marten, Martes martes, has reclaimed much of its former range in Scotland, UK. Recording this rapid range expansion requires developing techniques for accurate monitoring, but this is hampered by the species' elusive behaviour. We tested two sampling methods, hair collected from hair tubes and faeces (scat) collected along tracks, to assess the effects of key environmental and sampling variables on DNA quality and sampling efficiency. For hair, we tested the influence of hair tube location (distance from forest tracks) on collection rate and sex ratio of animals successfully sampled. For scats, we assessed the effect of time since defecation (1 to 16days) on genotyping error rates and success under two contrasting environmental conditions (exposed to rainfall or sheltered). We found no bias in the collection rate or sex ratio of animals detected by hair samples with differing proximity to forest tracks. DNA amplification failure for scats exposed to rainfall increased from 28 to 65% over the 16-day experimental period. During periods of low rainfall, the length of collection sessions could therefore be extended to increase sample number without risk of DNA degradation. Lack of bias in hair collection rates with proximity to forest tracks provides justification for tube placement close to tracks, as this reduces survey effort. These findings provide guidance for the development of efficient and cost-effective non-invasive sampling of Scottish pine martens

Diversionary feeding: an effective management strategy for conservation conflict?

Human population growth has led to increased contact between people and wildlife, with adverse impacts for both, such as damage to economic crops and wildlife persecution. Diversionary feeding, where food is used to draw animals away from problem activities or locations, is sometimes proposed as a socially acceptable conservation action, but little information exists on its success or what influences its efficacy. Here, we review literature on diversionary feeding and evaluate factors contributing to its success or failure. Success varied greatly among studies and successful uptake of diversionary food did not consistently produce outcomes that met stakeholder objectives. Studies often failed to report results in sufficient detail to allow a quantitative evaluation of efficiency. Of 30 trials presented in 21 studies, 13 enabled assessment of outcomes related to the ultimate objective of reducing conflict (related to threatened prey density, crop yield or nuisance reports) and only five of these were considered successful by the researchers conducting the study. A grand mean increase of 15% in respective measures of success at the outcome stage was found across all studies. Although diversionary feeding is considered expensive, cost-effectiveness analyses were rarely conducted. Only a third of studies reported information on costs and benefits that could be used to inform future management actions. We propose a decision-making framework that incorporates ecological knowledge, financial costs and evidence from previous studies to aid the planning and implementation of diversionary feeding in an adaptive format. Future studies of diversionary feeding should clearly report objectives, results, costsand effort to allow the return-on-investment to be calculated for different levels of management effort