FACTORS INFLUENCING BEST ANNUAL RACING TIME IN FINNISH HORSES

The fixed effects of year of race, season of race, sex, method of start, annual number of starts, length of race and racetrack were evaluated on best annual racing time in Finnish Horses. Data included 1,378 records for 554 horses by 206 sires. Five models were assumed within the age groups from 3 to 6 yr. The annual number of starts, method of start and season of race effects were interrelated. An increase in number of starts was associated with considerable improvement in a horse\u27s best annual racing time. Records should not, however, be adjusted for effect of annual number of starts because it would simultaneously account for part of genetic differences among horses. The largest estimates of heritability were obtained for best annual racing time when the model included the fixed year-season and sex effects. Corresponding to this model, the estimate of repeatability for best annual racing time over the four age groups was .60 ± .03. An example of best linear unbiased predictions of sires\u27 breeding values based on progeny records in one or several ages is presented

Examination of aerosol distributions and radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea region during ICARB using satellite data and a general circulation model

In this paper we analyse aerosol loading and its direct radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) regions for the Integrated Campaign on Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB) undertaken during 2006, using satellite data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, the Aerosol Index from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite, and the European-Community Hamburg (ECHAM5.5) general circulation model extended by Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM). By statistically comparing with large-scale satellite data sets, we firstly show that the aerosol properties measured during the ship-based ICARB campaign and simulated by the model are representative for the BoB and AS regions and the pre-monsoon season. In a second step, the modelled aerosol distributions were evaluated by a comparison with the measurements from the ship-based sunphotometer, and the satellite retrievals during ICARB. It is found that the model broadly reproduces the observed spatial and temporal variability in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over BoB and AS regions. However, AOD was systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the BoB leg. We show that this underprediction of AOD is mostly because of the deficiencies in the coarse mode, where the model shows that dust is the dominant component. The analysis of dust AOD along with the OMI Aerosol Index indicate that missing dust transport that results from too low dust emission fluxes over the Thar Desert region in the model caused this deficiency. Thirdly, we analysed the spatio-temporal variability of AOD comparing the ship-based observations to the large-scale satellite observations and simulations. It was found that most of the variability along the track was from geographical patterns, with a minor influence by single events. Aerosol fields were homogeneous enough to yield a good statistical agreement between satellite data at a 1° spatial, but only twice-daily temporal resolution, and the ship-based sunphotometer data at a much finer spatial, but daily-average temporal resolution. Examination of the satellite data further showed that the year 2006 is representative for the five-year period for which satellite data were available. Finally, we estimated the clear-sky solar direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF). We found that the cruise represents well the regional-seasonal mean forcings. Constraining simulated forcings using the observed AOD distributions yields a robust estimate of regional-seasonal mean DARF of −8.6, −21.4 and +12.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface (SUR) and in the atmosphere (ATM), respectively, for the BoB region, and over the AS, of, −6.8, −12.8, and +6 W m<sup>−2</sup> at TOA, SUR, and ATM, respectively

Guerrero Accelerograph Array: Status and Selected Results

This paper summarizes the history and rational for installation of the Guerrero accelerograph array. The array is producing unprecedented quantities of high quality digital strong motion data. Recent research using the array data has included studies on attenuation, site effects, scaling of spectra with magnitude, the ratio of vertical to horizontal accelerations, and the source of the September 19, 1985 earthquake

Social-economic drivers in (political) TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. Here, we use Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2014. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBMF will have to address socio- economic driving forces more explicitly

Epigenetic Drifts during Long-Term Intestinal Organoid Culture

Organoids retain the morphological and molecular patterns of their tissue of origin, are self-organizing, relatively simple to handle and accessible to genetic engineering. Thus, they represent an optimal tool for studying the mechanisms of tissue maintenance and aging. Long-term expansion under standard growth conditions, however, is accompanied by changes in the growth pattern and kinetics. As a potential explanation of these alterations, epigenetic drifts in organoid culture have been suggested. Here, we studied histone tri-methylation at lysine 4 (H3K4me3) and 27 (H3K27me3) and transcriptome profiles of intestinal organoids derived from mismatch repair (MMR)-deficient and control mice and cultured for 3 and 20 weeks and compared them with data on their tissue of origin. We found that, besides the expected changes in short-term culture, the organoids showed profound changes in their epigenomes also during the long-term culture. The most prominent were epigenetic gene activation by H3K4me3 recruitment to previously unmodified genes and by H3K27me3 loss from originally bivalent genes. We showed that a long-term culture is linked to broad transcriptional changes that indicate an ongoing maturation and metabolic adaptation process. This process was disturbed in MMR-deficient mice, resulting in endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and Wnt activation. Our results can be explained in terms of a mathematical model assuming that epigenetic changes during a long-term culture involve DNA demethylation that ceases if the metabolic adaptation is disturbed

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response

Temperature change and Baltic sprat: from observations to ecological-economic modelling

Temperature effects on Baltic sprat are many and include both direct and indirect effects. Increasing temperature is thought to increase the survival of all early life stages, resulting in increased recruitment success. We quantified the spatially resolved temperature trend for major spawning grounds and depth layers being most relevant for sprat eggs and larvae, using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for 1979–2005. Results confirmed an underlying positive temperature trend. Next, we tested these time-series as new explanatory variables in an existing temperature-dependent recruitment function and applied these recruitment predictions in an agestructured ecological–economic optimization model, maximizing for profit. Economic optimal solutions depended upon variability in temperature trajectories. Under climate-change scenarios, mean optimal fishing mortality and related yields and profits increased. The extent of the increase was limited by the general shape of the stock–recruitment model and the assumption of density-dependence. This highlights the need to formulate better environmentally sensitive stock recruitment models. Under the current knowledge of Baltic sprat recruitment, the tested climate-change scenarios would result in a change in management targets. However, to serve as a quantitative management advice tool, models will have to address the above-mentioned concern

Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation

Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define properly. Here we argue that fast feedbacks should be included because they act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Based on our results, we recommend RFP as a valid option to compare different forcing agents, and to compare the effects of particular forcing agents in different models

Kleene Algebras and Semimodules for Energy Problems

With the purpose of unifying a number of approaches to energy problems found in the literature, we introduce generalized energy automata. These are finite automata whose edges are labeled with energy functions that define how energy levels evolve during transitions. Uncovering a close connection between energy problems and reachability and B\"uchi acceptance for semiring-weighted automata, we show that these generalized energy problems are decidable. We also provide complexity results for important special cases