Meteorology and Cimatology: On-Line Weather Studies

Through the Virginia Earth Science Collaborative (VESC), a partnership of nine institutes of higher education, non-profit organizations, and eighty-three school divisions, a 3-credit, graduate-level meteorology course was offered six times between Spring 2006 and Fall 2007. The course, entitled Meteorology, was offered at three locations (Richmond, Abingdon, and Harrisonburg), and a local instructor facilitated each section. Funding for the course development, instructor stipends, and participant expenses (including travel, meals, and tuition) was provided through a competitive Mathematics and Science Partnership (MSP) grant funded through the federal No Child Left Behind legislation of 2001. The framework of the course was the American Meteorological Society\u27s Online Weather Studies program, which provides meteorological content and laboratory investigations, and relies heavily on the use of Internet-accessed, real-time weather data to teach meteorological topics in a distance learning format. The 115 teacher participants were required to complete text readings and written assignments, conduct laboratory investigations, design projects using real—time meteorological data, complete exams, and attend three face-to-face meetings. For the purpose of the VESC grant evaluation, pre-test and post-test data were collected on 110 of the participants which indicated an average 14.7% increase in participants‘ content knowledge and use of real-time meteorological products (weather maps, satellite images, station models, etc.) in their instructional delivery

Ozone Response to Aircraft Emissions: Sensitivity Studies with Two-dimensional Models

Our first intercomparison/assessment of the effects of a proposed high-speed civil transport (HSCT) fleet on the stratosphere is presented. These model calculations should be considered more as sensitivity studies, primarily designed to serve the following purposes: (1) to allow for intercomparison of model predictions; (2) to focus on the range of fleet operations and engine specifications giving minimal environmental impact; and (3) to provide the basis for future assessment studies. The basic scenarios were chosen to be as realistic as possible, using the information available on anticipated developments in technology. They are not to be interpreted as a commitment or goal for environmental acceptability

Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

Identifying the processes that determine avian migratory strategies in different environmental contexts is imperative to understanding the constraints to survival and reproduction faced by migratory birds across the planet. We compared the spring migration strategies of Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) that breed at south‐temperate latitudes (i.e., austral migrants) vs. tropical latitudes (i.e., intratropical migrants) in South America. We hypothesized that austral migrant flycatchers are more time‐selected than intratropical migrants during spring migration. As such, we predicted that austral migrants, which migrate further than intratropical migrants, will migrate at a faster rate and that the rate of migration for austral migrants will be positively correlated with the onset of spring migration. We attached light‐level geolocators to Fork‐tailed Flycatchers at two tropical breeding sites in Brazil and at two south‐temperate breeding sites in Argentina and tracked their movements until the following breeding season. Of 286 geolocators that were deployed, 37 were recovered ~1 year later, of which 28 provided useable data. Rate of spring migration did not differ significantly between the two groups, and only at one site was there a significantly positive relationship between date of initiation of spring migration and arrival date. This represents the first comparison of individual migratory strategies among conspecific passerines breeding at tropical vs. temperate latitudes and suggests that austral migrant Fork‐tailed Flycatchers in South America are not more time‐selected on spring migration than intratropical migrant conspecifics. Low sample sizes could have diminished our power to detect differences (e.g., between sexes), such that further research into the mechanisms underpinning migratory strategies in this poorly understood system is necessary.Fil: Jahn, Alex. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Cereghetti, Joaquín. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Cueto, Víctor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagóica. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Esquel. Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagónica; ArgentinaFil: Hallworth, Michael T.. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Levey, Douglas J.. National Science Foundation; Estados UnidosFil: Marini, Miguel Â.. Universidade do Brasília; BrasilFil: Masson, Diego. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; ArgentinaFil: Pizo, Marco A.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Sarasola, José Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Tuero, Diego Tomas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Evolution of breeding plumages in birds: A multiple-step pathway to seasonal dichromatism in New World warblers (Aves: Parulidae)

Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Many species of birds show distinctive seasonal breeding and nonbreeding plumages. A number of hypotheses have been proposed for the evolution of this seasonal dichromatism, specifically related to the idea that birds may experience variable levels of sexual selection relative to natural selection throughout the year. However, these hypotheses have not addressed the selective forces that have shaped molt, the underlying mechanism of plumage change. Here, we examined relationships between life-history variation, the evolution of a seasonal molt, and seasonal plumage dichromatism in the New World warblers (Aves: Parulidae), a family with a remarkable diversity of plumage, molt, and life-history strategies. We used phylogenetic comparative methods and path analysis to understand how and why distinctive breeding and nonbreeding plumages evolve in this family. We found that color change alone poorly explains the evolution of patterns of biannual molt evolution in warblers. Instead, molt evolution is better explained by a combination of other life-history factors, especially migration distance and foraging stratum. We found that the evolution of biannual molt and seasonal dichromatism is decoupled, with a biannual molt appearing earlier on the tree, more dispersed across taxa and body regions, and correlating with separate life-history factors than seasonal dichromatism. This result helps explain the apparent paradox of birds that molt biannually but show breeding plumages that are identical to the nonbreeding plumage. We find support for a two-step process for the evolution of distinctive breeding and nonbreeding plumages: That prealternate molt evolves primarily under selection for feather renewal, with seasonal color change sometimes following later. These results reveal how life-history strategies and a birds\u27 environment act upon multiple and separate feather functions to drive the evolution of feather replacement patterns and bird coloration

Ozone loss derived from balloon-borne tracer measurements in the 1999/2000 Arctic winter

Balloon-borne measurements of CFC11 (from the DIRAC in situ gas chromatograph and the DESCARTES grab sampler), ClO and O3 were made during the 1999/2000 Arctic winter as part of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 campaign, based in Kiruna (Sweden). Here we present the CFC11 data from nine flights and compare them first with data from other instruments which flew during the campaign and then with the vertical distributions calculated by the SLIMCAT 3D CTM. We calculate ozone loss inside the Arctic vortex between late January and early March using the relation between CFC11 and O3 measured on the flights. The peak ozone loss (~1200ppbv) occurs in the 440-470K region in early March in reasonable agreement with other published empirical estimates. There is also a good agreement between ozone losses derived from three balloon tracer data sets used here. The magnitude and vertical distribution of the loss derived from the measurements is in good agreement with the loss calculated from SLIMCAT over Kiruna for the same days

Using δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 to constrain Arctic methane emissions

We present a global methane modelling study assessing the sensitivity of Arctic atmospheric CH4 mole fractions, δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 to uncertainties in Arctic methane sources. Model simulations include methane tracers tagged by source and isotopic composition and are compared with atmospheric data at four northern high-latitude measurement sites. We find the model's ability to capture the magnitude and phase of observed seasonal cycles of CH4 mixing ratios, δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 at northern high latitudes is much improved using a later spring kick-off and autumn decline in northern high-latitude wetland emissions than predicted by most process models. Results from our model simulations indicate that recent predictions of large methane emissions from thawing submarine permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf region could only be reconciled with global-scale atmospheric observations by making large adjustments to high-latitude anthropogenic or wetland emission inventories

Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Nino warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C)/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly, through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg(CH4)/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. There remain many uncertainties in the emission and oxidation of isoprene which may affect the exact size of this effect, but its magnitude is large enough that it should remain important

Methane Mitigation:Methods to Reduce Emissions, on the Path to the Paris Agreement

The atmospheric methane burden is increasing rapidly, contrary to pathways compatible with the goals of the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement. Urgent action is required to bring methane back to a pathway more in line with the Paris goals. Emission reduction from “tractable” (easier to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as the fossil fuel industries and landfills is being much facilitated by technical advances in the past decade, which have radically improved our ability to locate, identify, quantify, and reduce emissions. Measures to reduce emissions from “intractable” (harder to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as agriculture and biomass burning have received less attention and are also becoming more feasible, including removal from elevated-methane ambient air near to sources. The wider effort to use microbiological and dietary intervention to reduce emissions from cattle (and humans) is not addressed in detail in this essentially geophysical review. Though they cannot replace the need to reach “net-zero” emissions of CO2, significant reductions in the methane burden will ease the timescales needed to reach required CO2 reduction targets for any particular future temperature limit. There is no single magic bullet, but implementation of a wide array of mitigation and emission reduction strategies could substantially cut the global methane burden, at a cost that is relatively low compared to the parallel and necessary measures to reduce CO2, and thereby reduce the atmospheric methane burden back toward pathways consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels