671 research outputs found

    Comparison of numerical methods for evidence calculation

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    Weltraum-Mikrobiologie

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    Purpose Approaches in environmental risk assessment for pesticides are becoming more and more realistic. Thereby, risk assessment has to be protective in a way that no long-lasting (adverse) effects on populations will occur in the environment. Since this imperative includes species generally showing high population vulnerability due to their life history traits, prospective risk assessment should be based on realistic worst cases. Based on life history traits, the purpose of the current study was to verify whether a worst case combination of low potential for intrinsic recovery and low ability for recolonisation can be found in the field. Methods Combinations of traits related to dispersal ability and reproduction of macroinvertebrates were investigated using monitoring data from edge of field water bodies in Germany. The relative distribution of traits was analyzed across different agricultural regions and across sites of different potential for exposure to pesticides. Species were sorted in a tiered approach in order to gain a list of realistic worst case species. Results Life history traits were found equally distributed across different regions. Thereby, dispersal ability and voltinism were not randomly combined. Within the data analysed, low dispersal ability was found to be exclusive to semivoltine taxa. Owing to their appearance in reference sites, poor dispersal ability and a long time reproduction, three species were considered potentially worst case. Conclusions The trait approach was found to be suitable in comparing trait distributions within different regions and in compiling a list of critical taxa for consideration in environmental risk assessment

    Mapping manifestations of parametric uncertainty in projected pelagic oxygen concentrations back to contemporary local model fidelity

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    Pelagic biogeochemical models (BGCMs) have matured into generic components of Earth System Models. BGCMs mimic the effects of marine biota on oceanic nutrient, carbon and oxygen cycles. They rely on parameters that are adjusted to match observed conditions. Such parameters are key to determining the models’ responses to changing environmental conditions. However, many of these parameters are difficult to constrain and constitute a major source of uncertainty in BGCM projections. Here we use, for the first time, variance-based sensitivity analyses to map BGCM parameter uncertainties onto their respective local manifestation in model entities (such as oceanic oxygen concentrations) for both contemporary climate and climate projections. The mapping effectively relates local uncertainties of projections to the uncertainty of specific parameters. Further, it identifies contemporary benchmarking regions, where the uncertainties of specific parameters manifest themselves, thereby facilitating an effective parameter refinement and a reduction of the associated uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that the parameters that are linked to uncertainties in projections may differ from those parameters that facilitate model conformity with present-day observations. In summary, we present a practical approach to the general question of where present-day model fidelity may be indicative for reliable projections

    Rotating Nuclear Rings and Extreme Starbursts in Ultraluminous Galaxies

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    New high resolution interferometer data of 10 IR ultraluminous galaxies shows the molecular gas is in rotating nuclear rings or disks with radii 300 to 800 pc. Most of the CO flux comes from a moderate-density, warm, intercloud medium rather than self-gravitating clouds. Gas masses of ~ 5 x 10^9 Msun, 5 times lower than the standard method are derived from a model of the molecular disks. The ratio of molecular gas to dynamical mass, is M_gas/M_dyn ~ 1/6 with a maximum ratio of gas to total mass surface density of 1/3. For the galaxies VIIZw31, Arp193, and IRAS 10565+24, there is good evidence for rotating molecular rings with a central gap. In addition to the rotating rings a new class of star formation region is identified which we call an Extreme Starburst. They have a characteristic size of only 100 pc., about 10^9 Msun of gas and an IR luminosity of ~3 x 10^11 Lsun. Four extreme starbursts are identified in the 3 closest galaxies in the sample Arp220, Arp193 and Mrk273. They are the most prodigious star formation events in the local universe, each representing about 1000 times as many OB stars as 30 Doradus. In Arp220, the CO and 1.3 mm continuum maps show the two ``nuclei'' embedded in a central ring or disk and a fainter structure extending 3 kpc to the east, normal to the nuclear disk. There is no evidence that these sources really are the pre-merger nuclei. They are compact, extreme starburst regions containing 10^9 Msun of dense molecular gas and new stars, but no old stars. Most of the dust emission and HCN emission arises in the two extreme starbursts. The entire bolometric luminosity of Arp~220 comes from starbursts, not an AGN. In Mrk231, the disk geometry shows that the molecular disk cannot be heated by the AGN; the far IR luminosity of Mrk~231 is powered by a starburst, not the AGN. (Abridged)Comment: 97 pages Latex with aasms.sty, including 29 encapsulated Postscript figures. Figs 18 and 23 are GIFs. 31 figures total. Text and higher quality versions of figures available at http://sbastk.ess.sunysb.edu/www/RINGS_ESB_PREPRINT.html To be published in Ap. J., 10 Nov. 199

    Особливості управлінння персоналом в сучасних організаціях

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    Головним ресурсом підприємства є люди. Саме від персоналу залежить якість продукції, рівень обслуговування, загальний ріст і розвиток компанії. Система управління персоналом підприємства представляє собою сукупність прийомів, методів, управлінських дій спрямованих на організації роботи з персоналом. При формуванні системи управління персоналом організації необхідно враховувати такі моменти: організація є відкритою системою і на її діяльність впливають фактори зовнішнього середовища, такі, як ринкова кон’юнктура, ринок праці, правові норми, потреби споживачів, конкуренти; внутрішнє середовище організації характеризується такими складовими, як: місія організації, ціль діяльності, задачі, люди, організаційна структура та корпоративна культура; результат діяльності організації залежить від кваліфікації, досвіду, компетенцій персоналу організації; конкурентоздатність організації залежить не лише від конкурентоздатності продукції чи послуг, а і від конкурентоздатності персоналу організації

    Constraints on the origin of the massive, hot, and rapidly rotating magnetic white dwarf RE J 0317-853 from an HST parallax measurement

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    We use the parallax measurements of RE J 0317-853 to determine its mass, radius, and cooling age and thereby constrain its evolutionary origins. We observed RE J 0317-853 with the the Hubble Space Telescope's Fine Guidance System to measure the parallax of RE J 0317-853 and its binary companion, the non-magnetic white dwarf LB 9802. In addition, we acquired spectra of comparison stars with the Boller & Chivens spectrograph of the SMARTS telescope to correct the parallax zero point. For the corrected parallax, we determine the radius, mass, and the cooling age with the help of evolutionary models from the literature. The properties of RE J 0317-853 are constrained using the parallax information. We discuss the different cases of the core composition and the uncertain effective temperature. We confirm that RE J 0317-853 is close to the Chandrasekhar's mass limit in all cases and almost as old as its companion LB 9802. The precise evolutionary history of RE J 0317-853 depends on our knowledge of its effective temperature. It is possible that it had a single star progenitor possible if we assume that the effective temperature is at the cooler end of the possible range from 30000 to 50000; if T_eff is instead at the hotter end, a binary-merger scenario for RE J 0317-853 becomes more plausible.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures; language revised edition with added references. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

    Cosmic Swarms: A search for Supermassive Black Holes in the LISA data stream with a Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm

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    We describe a hybrid evolutionary algorithm that can simultaneously search for multiple supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) inspirals in LISA data. The algorithm mixes evolutionary computation, Metropolis-Hastings methods and Nested Sampling. The inspiral of SMBHBs presents an interesting problem for gravitational wave data analysis since, due to the LISA response function, the sources have a bi-modal sky solution. We show here that it is possible not only to detect multiple SMBHBs in the data stream, but also to investigate simultaneously all the various modes of the global solution. In all cases, the algorithm returns parameter determinations within 5σ5\sigma (as estimated from the Fisher Matrix) of the true answer, for both the actual and antipodal sky solutions.Comment: submitted to Classical & Quantum Gravity. 19 pages, 4 figure
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