Performance of the model for end-stage liver disease score for mortality prediction and the potential role of etiology

Background & Aims: Although the discriminative ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discriminative performance and calibration of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; and MELD-UNOS, used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We also explored recalibrating and updating the model. Methods: In total, 776 patients who underwent elective TIPS (TIPS cohort) and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses. Results: In the TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts, the etiology of liver disease was viral in 402/188, alcoholic in 185/130, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in 65/33; mean follow-up±SD was 25±9/19±21 months; and the number of deaths at 3-6-12 months was 57-102-142/31-47-99, respectively. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in the non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used to update the MELD. Conclusions: In this validation study, the performance of the MELD score was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for an update to the MELD score are proposed. Lay summary: While the discriminative performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in 2 independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. Thus, we propose a recalibration and suggest candidate variables for an update to the model

Prevalence, Outcome, and Prevention of Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection in Neonates Born to Women with Preconception Immunity (CHILd Study)

Background: Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the leading infectious cause of congenital disabilities. We designed a prospective study to investigate the rate, outcome, and risk factors of congenital CMV (cCMV) infection in neonates born to immune women, and the potential need and effectiveness of hygiene recommendations in this population. Methods: The study was composed of 2 sequential parts: an epidemiology (part 1) and a prevention (part 2) study. Performance of part 2 depended upon a cCMV rate >0.4%. Women enrolled in part 1 did not receive hygiene recommendations. Newborns were screened by HCMV DNA testing in saliva and cCMV was confirmed by urine testing. Results: Saliva swabs were positive for HCMV DNA in 45/9661 newborns and cCMV was confirmed in 18 cases. The rate of cCMV was. 19% (95% confidence interval [CI]:. 11-.29%), and 3 out of 18 infants with cCMV had symptoms of CMV at birth. Age, nationality, occupation, and contact with children were similar between mothers of infected and noninfected newborns. Twin pregnancy (odds ratio [OR]: 7.2; 95% CI: 1.7-32.2; P =. 037) and maternal medical conditions (OR: 3.9; 95% CI: 1.5-10.1; P =. 003) appeared associated with cCMV. Given the rate of cCMV was lower than expected, the prevention part of the study was cancelled. Conclusions: Newborns from women with preconception immunity have a low rate of cCMV, which appears to be mostly due to reactivation of the latent virus. Therefore, serological screening in childbearing age would be pivotal to identify HCMV-seropositive women, whose newborns have a low risk of cCMV. Clinical trials registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03973359)

Microbial Preparations (Probiotics) for the Prevention of Clostridium difficile Infection in Adults and Children: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis of 6,851 Participants.

OBJECTIVETo determine whether probiotic prophylaxes reduce the odds of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in adults and children.DESIGNIndividual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), adjusting for risk factors.METHODSWe searched 6 databases and 11 grey literature sources from inception to April 2016. We identified 32 RCTs (n=8,713); among them, 18 RCTs provided IPD (n=6,851 participants) comparing probiotic prophylaxis to placebo or no treatment (standard care). One reviewer prepared the IPD, and 2 reviewers extracted data, rated study quality, and graded evidence quality.RESULTSProbiotics reduced CDI odds in the unadjusted model (n=6,645; odds ratio [OR] 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.55) and the adjusted model (n=5,074; OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.23-0.55). Using 2 or more antibiotics increased the odds of CDI (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.11-4.37), whereas age, sex, hospitalization status, and high-risk antibiotic exposure did not. Adjusted subgroup analyses suggested that, compared to no probiotics, multispecies probiotics were more beneficial than single-species probiotics, as was using probiotics in clinical settings where the CDI risk is ≥5%. Of 18 studies, 14 reported adverse events. In 11 of these 14 studies, the adverse events were retained in the adjusted model. Odds for serious adverse events were similar for both groups in the unadjusted analyses (n=4,990; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89-1.26) and adjusted analyses (n=4,718; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89-1.28). Missing outcome data for CDI ranged from 0% to 25.8%. Our analyses were robust to a sensitivity analysis for missingness.CONCLUSIONSModerate quality (ie, certainty) evidence suggests that probiotic prophylaxis may be a useful and safe CDI prevention strategy, particularly among participants taking 2 or more antibiotics and in hospital settings where the risk of CDI is ≥5%.TRIAL REGISTRATIONPROSPERO 2015 identifier: CRD42015015701Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2018;771-781

How do cardiologists select patients for dual antiplatelet therapy continuation beyond 1 year after a myocardial infarction? Insights from the EYESHOT Post-MI Study

Background: Current guidelines suggest to consider dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) continuation for longer than 12 months in selected patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Hypothesis: We sought to assess the criteria used by cardiologists in daily practice to select patients with a history of MI eligible for DAPT continuation beyond 1 year. Methods: We analyzed data from the EYESHOT Post-MI, a prospective, observational, nationwide study aimed to evaluate the management of patients presenting to cardiologists 1 to 3 years from the last MI event. Results: Out of the 1633 post-MI patients enrolled in the study between March and December 2017, 557 (34.1%) were on DAPT at the time of enrolment, and 450 (27.6%) were prescribed DAPT after cardiologist assessment. At multivariate analyses, a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with multiple stents and the presence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) resulted as independent predictors of DAPT continuation, while atrial fibrillation was the only independent predictor of DAPT interruption for patients both at the second and the third year from MI at enrolment and the time of discharge/end of the visit. Conclusions: Risk scores recommended by current guidelines for guiding decisions on DAPT duration are underused and misused in clinical practice. A PCI with multiple stents and a history of PAD resulted as the clinical variables more frequently associated with DAPT continuation beyond 1 year from the index MI

A Low Voltage 12-GHz Silicon-Germanium Static frequency divider with a Selectable Division Ratio

An integrated 12-GHz static frequency divider with a selectable division ratio (16/1, 64/1) realised in a Silicon Germanium technology dedicated for high volume production, is presented. It operates at low bias voltage (2.7-3.6V) providing balanced output signals on 50-ohm loads. The chosen architecture, the adopted design approach and used technology led to a good trade-off among maximum input frequency, input sensitivity, noise floor, power consumption, division ratioes and die size compared with the current high frequency dividers. The circuit features make itself a versatile block for high frequency PLL systems, while the circuit core can be used as a macrocell for the design of totally integrated fast PLL’s

Puerperio: conoscenze da parte delle ostetriche e informazione alle donne sul self-care

Il puerperio \ue8 il periodo di tempo che inizia subito dopo l'espulsione o estrazione della placenta e termina con la ripresa dell'attivit\ue0 ciclica ovarica. Convenzionalmente si assegna al puerperio una durata di 6-8 settimane, poich\ue9 in tale intervallo nonnalmente si completa la regressione della maggior parte delle modificazioni gravidiche a carico dei vari organi e apparati. Questo lavoro si prefigge l'obbiettivo di verificare le conoscenze che le ostetriche e le donne del puerperio hanno riguardo al self-care e di constatare la comunicazione di tali informazioni. \uc8 molto importante che la donna riceva dei consigli che la rendano autonoma rispetto a tutte le tematiche che riguardano il self-care in puerperio, quali: igiene, lochi, rapporti sessuali, contraccezione, allattamento, abitudini e allattamento, attivita' fisica, ginnastica perineale e psicologia. L'analisi conoscitiva \ue8 stata effettuata tramite somministrazione di questionari in forma anonima a 12 ostetriche e 76 puerpere dei due puerperi (fisiologico e a solvenza) della clinica Mangiagalli di Milano. I questionari erano costituiti da domande a risposta multipla in cui bisognava indicare le frasi corrette per gli argomenti sopra citati. La conoscenza delle ostetriche \ue8 risultata buona rispetto alla maggior parte degli argomenti presi in analisi e non sono state evidenziate particolari differenze tra ostetriche del puerperio fisiologico e ostetriche del puerperio a solvenza. Per quanto riguarda le puerpere, queste hanno delle conoscenze che possono essere definite insufficienti ad eccezione di due argomenti: allattamento e igiene personale. Quasi tutte le ostetriche affennano di educare la donna sulla maggior parte degli argomenti considerati, mentre le donne affermano che l'ostetrica non \ue8 un'importante fonte di informazione. La maggior parte di queste, infatti, afferma di non ricevere indicazioni durante la degenza in puerperio riguardo al self-care. L'unico argomento in cui le puerpere riconoscono un ruolo come educatrice all'ostetrica \ue8 l'igiene personale mentre l' allattamento viene trattato soprattutto dalla puericultrice