Deep learning with electronic health records for short-term fracture risk identification : crystal bone algorithm development and validation

Background: Fractures as a result of osteoporosis and low bone mass are common and give rise to significant clinical, personal, and economic burden. Even after a fracture occurs, high fracture risk remains widely underdiagnosed and undertreated. Common fracture risk assessment tools utilize a subset of clinical risk factors for prediction, and often require manual data entry. Furthermore, these tools predict risk over the long term and do not explicitly provide short-term risk estimates necessary to identify patients likely to experience a fracture in the next 1-2 years. Objective: The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate an algorithm for the identification of patients at risk of fracture in a subsequent 1- to 2-year period. In order to address the aforementioned limitations of current prediction tools, this approach focused on a short-term timeframe, automated data entry, and the use of longitudinal data to inform the predictions. Methods: Using retrospective electronic health record data from over 1,000,000 patients, we developed Crystal Bone, an algorithm that applies machine learning techniques from natural language processing to the temporal nature of patient histories to generate short-term fracture risk predictions. Similar to how language models predict the next word in a given sentence or the topic of a document, Crystal Bone predicts whether a patient’s future trajectory might contain a fracture event, or whether the signature of the patient’s journey is similar to that of a typical future fracture patient. A holdout set with 192,590 patients was used to validate accuracy. Experimental baseline models and human-level performance were used for comparison. Results: The model accurately predicted 1- to 2-year fracture risk for patients aged over 50 years (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.81). These algorithms outperformed the experimental baselines (AUROC 0.67) and showed meaningful improvements when compared to retrospective approximation of human-level performance by correctly identifying 9649 of 13,765 (70%) at-risk patients who did not receive any preventative bone-health-related medical interventions from their physicians. Conclusions: These findings indicate that it is possible to use a patient’s unique medical history as it changes over time to predict the risk of short-term fracture. Validating and applying such a tool within the health care system could enable automated and widespread prediction of this risk and may help with identification of patients at very high risk of fracture

Cross-system interactions for positive tipping cascades

Positive tipping points are promising leverage points in social systems for accelerated progress towards climate and sustainability targets. Besides their impact in specific social systems such as energy, food, or social norms and values, positive tipping dynamics may in some cases spread across different systems, amplifying the impact of tipping interventions. However, the cross-system interactions that can create such tipping cascades are sparsely examined. Here, we review interactions across sociotechnical, socioecological, socioeconomic, and sociopolitical systems that can lead to tipping cascades based on the emerging and relevant past evidence. We show that there are several feedback mechanisms where a strategic input can trigger secondary impacts for a disproportionately large positive response, and various agents that can trigger such cascades. This review of cross-system interactions facilitates the quantification and analysis of positive tipping cascades in future studies

Associations of lifetime concussion history and repetitive head impact exposure with resting-state functional connectivity in former collegiate American football players: An NCAA 15-year follow-up study

The objective of this study was to examine associations of lifetime concussion history (CHx) and an advanced metric of lifetime repetitive head impact exposure with resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) across the whole-brain and among large-scale functional networks (Default Mode; Dorsal Attention; and Frontoparietal Control) in former collegiate football players. Individuals who completed at least one year of varsity collegiate football were eligible to participate in this observational cohort study (n = 48; aged 36-41 years; 79.2% white/ Caucasian; 12.5±4.4 years of football played; all men). Individuals were excluded if they reported history/suspicion of psychotic disorder with active symptoms, contraindications to participation in study procedures (e.g., MRI safety concern), or inability to travel. Each participant provided concussion and football playing histories. Self-reported concussion history was analyzed in two different ways based on prior research: dichotomous "High"(≥3 concussions; n = 28) versus "Low"(<3 concussions; n = 20); and four ordinal categories (0-1 concussion [n = 19]; 2-4 concussions [n = 8]; 5-7 concussions [n = 9]; and ≥8 concussions [n = 12]). The Head Impact Exposure Estimate (HIEE) was calculated from football playing history captured via structured interview. Resting-state fMRI and T1-weighted MRI were acquired and preprocessed using established pipelines. Next, rsFC was calculated using the Seitzman et al., (2020) 300-ROI functional atlas. Whole-brain, within-network, and between-network rsFC were calculated using all ROIs and network-specific ROIs, respectively. Effects of CHx and HIEE on rsFC values were examined using separate multivariable linear regression models, with a-priori α set to 0.05. We observed no statistically significant associations between rsFC outcomes and either CHx or HIEE (ps ≥ .12). Neither CHx nor HIEE were associated with neural signatures that have been observed in studies of typical and pathological aging. While CHx and repetitive head impacts have been associated with changes in brain health in older former athletes, our preliminary results suggest that associations with rsFC may not be present in early midlife former football players

Numerical study of neutron beam divergence in a beam-fusion scenario employing laser driven ions

The most established route to create a laser-based neutron source is by employing laser accelerated, low atomic number ions in fusion reactions. In addition to benefiting from the high reaction cross-sections at moderate energies of the projectile ions, the anisotropy in the neutron emission is another important feature of beam-fusion reactions. Using a simple numerical model based on neutron generation in a pitcher-catcher scenario, anisotropy in the neutron emission was studied for the deuterium-deuterium fusion reaction. Simulation results are consistent with the narrow divergence ( 70 full width at half maximum) neutron beam recently obtained from an experiment employing multi-MeV deuteron beams of narrow divergence (upto 30 FWHM depending on the ion energy) accelerated by a subpetawatt laser pulse from thin deuterated plastic foils via the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration mechanism. By varying the input ion beam parameters, simulations show that a further improvement in the neutron beam directionality (i.e. reduction in the beam divergence) can be obtained by increasing the projectile ion beam temperature and cut-off energy, as expected from the interactions with higher power lasers at upcoming facilities

Single Spin Asymmetry ANA_N in Polarized Proton-Proton Elastic Scattering at s=200\sqrt{s}=200 GeV

We report a high precision measurement of the transverse single spin asymmetry $A_N$ at the center of mass energy $\sqrt{s}=200$ GeV in elastic proton-proton scattering by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The $A_N$ was measured in the four-momentum transfer squared $t$ range $0.003 \leqslant |t| \leqslant 0.035$ \GeVcSq, the region of a significant interference between the electromagnetic and hadronic scattering amplitudes. The measured values of $A_N$ and its $t$-dependence are consistent with a vanishing hadronic spin-flip amplitude, thus providing strong constraints on the ratio of the single spin-flip to the non-flip amplitudes. Since the hadronic amplitude is dominated by the Pomeron amplitude at this $\sqrt{s}$, we conclude that this measurement addresses the question about the presence of a hadronic spin flip due to the Pomeron exchange in polarized proton-proton elastic scattering.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Longitudinal double-spin asymmetry and cross section for inclusive neutral pion production at midrapidity in polarized proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV

We report a measurement of the longitudinal double-spin asymmetry A_LL and the differential cross section for inclusive Pi0 production at midrapidity in polarized proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV. The cross section was measured over a transverse momentum range of 1 < p_T < 17 GeV/c and found to be in good agreement with a next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculation. The longitudinal double-spin asymmetry was measured in the range of 3.7 < p_T < 11 GeV/c and excludes a maximal positive gluon polarization in the proton. The mean transverse momentum fraction of Pi0's in their parent jets was found to be around 0.7 for electromagnetically triggered events.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (RC

High pTp_{T} non-photonic electron production in pp+pp collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 200 GeV

We present the measurement of non-photonic electron production at high transverse momentum ($p_T >$ 2.5 GeV/$c$) in $p$ + $p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV using data recorded during 2005 and 2008 by the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The measured cross-sections from the two runs are consistent with each other despite a large difference in photonic background levels due to different detector configurations. We compare the measured non-photonic electron cross-sections with previously published RHIC data and pQCD calculations. Using the relative contributions of B and D mesons to non-photonic electrons, we determine the integrated cross sections of electrons ($\frac{e^++e^-}{2}$) at 3 GeV/$c < p_T <~$10 GeV/$c$ from bottom and charm meson decays to be ${d\sigma_{(B\to e)+(B\to D \to e)} \over dy_e}|_{y_e=0}$ = 4.0$\pm0.5$({\rm stat.})$\pm1.1$({\rm syst.}) nb and ${d\sigma_{D\to e} \over dy_e}|_{y_e=0}$ = 6.2$\pm0.7$({\rm stat.})$\pm1.5$({\rm syst.}) nb, respectively.Comment: 17 pages, 17 figure

Longitudinal scaling property of the charge balance function in Au + Au collisions at 200 GeV

We present measurements of the charge balance function, from the charged particles, for diverse pseudorapidity and transverse momentum ranges in Au + Au collisions at 200 GeV using the STAR detector at RHIC. We observe that the balance function is boost-invariant within the pseudorapidity coverage [-1.3, 1.3]. The balance function properly scaled by the width of the observed pseudorapidity window does not depend on the position or size of the pseudorapidity window. This scaling property also holds for particles in different transverse momentum ranges. In addition, we find that the width of the balance function decreases monotonically with increasing transverse momentum for all centrality classes.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Measurement of the Bottom contribution to non-photonic electron production in p+pp+p collisions at s\sqrt{s} =200 GeV

The contribution of $B$ meson decays to non-photonic electrons, which are mainly produced by the semi-leptonic decays of heavy flavor mesons, in $p+p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 200 GeV has been measured using azimuthal correlations between non-photonic electrons and hadrons. The extracted $B$ decay contribution is approximately 50% at a transverse momentum of $p_{T} \geq 5$ GeV/$c$. These measurements constrain the nuclear modification factor for electrons from $B$ and $D$ meson decays. The result indicates that $B$ meson production in heavy ion collisions is also suppressed at high $p_{T}$.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted by PR