Generalized Synchronization Between ENSO and Hydrological Variables in Colombia: A Recurrence Quantification Approach

We use Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) to study features of Generalized Synchronization (GS) between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monthly hydrological anomalies (HyAns) of rainfall and streamflows in Colombia. To that end, we check the sensitivity of the RQA concerning diverse HyAns estimation methods, which constitutes a fundamental procedure for any climatological analysis at inter-annual timescales. In general, the GS and its sensitivity to HyAns methods are quantified by means of time-lagged joint recurrence analysis. Then, we link the GS results with the dynamics of major physical mechanisms that modulate Colombia's hydroclimatology, including the Caribbean, the CHOCO and the Orinoco Low-Level Jets (LLJs), and the Cross-Equatorial Flow (CEF) over northwestern Amazonia (southern Colombia). Our findings show that RQA exhibits significant differences depending on the HyAns methods. GS results are similar for the HyAns methods with variable annual cycle but the time-lags seem to be sensitive. On the other hand, our results make evident that HyAns in the Pacific, Caribbean, and Andean regions of Colombia exhibit strong (weak) GS with the ENSO signal during La Niña (El Niño), when hydrological anomalies are positive (negative). Results from the GS analysis allow us to identify spatial patterns of non-linear dependence between ENSO and the Colombian's climatology. The mentioned moisture transport sources constitute the interdependence mechanism and contribute to explain hydrological anomalies in Colombia during the phases of ENSO. During La Niña (El Niño), GS is strong (weak) for the Caribbean and the CHOCO LLJs whereas GS is moderate (strong) for the Orinoco LLJ. Moreover, moisture advection by the Caribbean and CHOCO LLJs exhibit synchrony with HyAns at 0–2 (2–4) months-lags over north-western Colombia and the Orinoco LLJ moisture advection synchronizes with HyAns at similar month-lags over the Amazon region of Colombia. Furthermore, our results suggest a strong (weak) GS between negative (positive) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and rainfall anomalies in Colombia. In contrast, GS is strong (weak) for positive (negative) SST anomalies in the Central Pacific. Our GS results contribute to advance our understanding on the regional effects of both phases of ENSO in Colombia, whose socio-economical, environmental and ecological impacts cannot be overstated. This work provides a novel approach that reveals new insights into the impact of ENSO on northern South America. © Copyright © 2020 Salas, Poveda, Mesa and Marwan

Parameterization, Analysis, and Risk Management in a Comprehensive Management System with Emphasis on Energy and Performance (ISO 50001: 2018)

[EN] The future of business development relies on the effective management of risks, opportunities, and energy and water resources. Here, we evaluate the application of best practices to identify, analyze, address, monitor, and control risks and opportunities (R/O) according to ISO 31000 and 50000. Furthermore, we shed light on tools, templates, ISO guides, and international documents that contribute to classifying, identifying, formulating control, and managing R/O parameterization in a comprehensive management system model, namely CMS QHSE3+, which consists of quality (Q), health and safety (HS), environmental management (E), energy efficiency (E2), and other risk components (+) that include comprehensive biosecurity and biosafety. By focusing on the deployment of R/O-based thinking (ROBT) at strategic and operational levels, we show vulnerability reduction in CMS QHSE3+ by managing energy, efficiency, and sustainability.We express our gratitude for the support from Cajacopi Atlantico, QUARA Technology, ASTEQ Technology, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia and to all the personnel and companies who offered us their contributions and their valuable points of view.Poveda-Orjuela, PP.; García-Díaz, JC.; Pulido-Rojano, A.; Cañón-Zabala, G. (2020). Parameterization, Analysis, and Risk Management in a Comprehensive Management System with Emphasis on Energy and Performance (ISO 50001: 2018). Energies. 13(21):1-44. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13215579S1441321SDBS Business Demography Indicatorshttps://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=70734The World Economy on a Tightrope. OECD Economic Outlook, June 2020http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/Strategic Plan 2016–2020www.https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/august/tradoc_154919.pdfSMEs, and Their Business Problems. Case Analysishttps://www.redalyc.org/pdf/206/20605209.pdfMuñoz, P. (2013). The Distinctive Importance of Sustainable Entrepreneurship. Current Opinion in Creativity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 2(1). doi:10.11565/cuocient.v2i1.26Parrish, B. D. (2010). Sustainability-driven entrepreneurship: Principles of organization design. Journal of Business Venturing, 25(5), 510-523. doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.05.005Chaos Report 2015http://www.laboratorioti.com/2016/05/16/informe-del-caos-2015-chaos-report-2015/Dirección de Marketing. Ciudad de México: Pearson and Prentice Hall, 12a Ediciónhttp://biblio.econ.uba.ar/opac-tmpl/bootstrap/tc/148262_TC.pdfPoveda-Orjuela, P. P., García-Díaz, J. C., Pulido-Rojano, A., & Cañón-Zabala, G. (2019). ISO 50001: 2018 and Its Application in a Comprehensive Management System with an Energy-Performance Focus. Energies, 12(24), 4700. doi:10.3390/en12244700Continuity Planning for Your Businesshttps://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/help/disaster/WBC_business_continuity_planning_covid-19_checklist.pdfCOVID-19: Five Ways to Maintain Continuity and Reshape for Resiliencehttps://www.ey.com/en_be/transactions/companies-can-reshape-results-and-plan-forcovid-19-recoveryAven, T. (2012). The risk concept—historical and recent development trends. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 99, 33-44. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2011.11.006Oliva, F. L. (2016). A maturity model for enterprise risk management. International Journal of Production Economics, 173, 66-79. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.12.007Aven, T., & Zio, E. (2011). Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 96(1), 64-74. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.001The ISO 27k Forumhttps://www.iso27001security.com/html/iso27000.htmlKaya, İ. (2017). Perspectives on Internal Control and Enterprise Risk Management. Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, 379-389. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-67913-6_26Barafort, B., Mesquida, A.-L., & Mas, A. (2017). Integrating risk management in IT settings from ISO standards and management systems perspectives. Computer Standards & Interfaces, 54, 176-185. doi:10.1016/j.csi.2016.11.010Aven, T. (2016). Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation. European Journal of Operational Research, 253(1), 1-13. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.023Thekdi, S., & Aven, T. (2016). An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 156, 277-287. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.010Aven, T., & Zio, E. (2013). Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management. Risk Analysis, 34(7), 1164-1172. doi:10.1111/risa.12132Labodová, A. (2004). Implementing integrated management systems using a risk analysis based approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 12(6), 571-580. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2003.08.008World trends and the future of Latin America; ECLAC UNIDO, 2016–Public Management Series, No 85. ISSN 1680-8827, LC/L.4246 LC/IP/L.348https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/40788/S1600740_es.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=yBudhi, M. K. S., Lestari, N. P. N. E., Suasih, N. N. R., & Wijaya, P. Y. (2020). Strategies and policies for developing SMEs based on creative economy. Management Science Letters, 2301-2310. doi:10.5267/j.msl.2020.3.005Melly, D., & Hanrahan, J. (2020). Tourism biosecurity risk management and planning: an international comparative analysis and implications for Ireland. Tourism Review, 76(1), 88-102. doi:10.1108/tr-07-2019-0312Guide for Business Continuity during COVID-19http://www.andi.com.co/Uploads.pdfLa Danse, 1910. Musee de l’Hermitage, Saint-Pétersbourg, Russie. Consulté le 28 Juillet 2020https://www.hermitagemuseum.org/wps/portal/hermitage/Uriarte-Romero, R., Gil-Samaniego, M., Valenzuela-Mondaca, E., & Ceballos-Corral, J. (2017). Methodology for the Successful Integration of an Energy Management System to an Operational Environmental System. Sustainability, 9(8), 1304. doi:10.3390/su9081304Cosgrove, J., Littlewood, J., & Wilgeroth, P. (2017). Development of a framework of key performance indicators to identify reductions in energy consumption in a medical devices production facility. International Journal of Ambient Energy, 39(2), 202-210. doi:10.1080/01430750.2017.1278718Wu, J., Cheng, B., Wang, M., & Chen, J. (2017). Quality-Aware Energy Optimization in Wireless Video Communication With Multipath TCP. IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking, 25(5), 2701-2718. doi:10.1109/tnet.2017.2701153Biosecurity. Madridhttps://www.insst.es/-/bioseguridadArvanitis, S., Loukis, E., & Diamantopoulou, V. (2013). The effect of soft ICT capital on innovation performance of Greek firms. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 26(6), 679-701. doi:10.1108/jeim-07-2013-0048ICT in small firms: Factors affecting the adoption and use of ICT in Southeast England SMEshttps://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2008/167Legg, S. J., Olsen, K. B., Laird, I. S., & Hasle, P. (2015). Managing safety in small and medium enterprises. Safety Science, 71, 189-196. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2014.11.007Podgórski, D. (2015). Measuring operational performance of OSH management system – A demonstration of AHP-based selection of leading key performance indicators. Safety Science, 73, 146-166. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2014.11.018Cagno, E., Micheli, G. J. L., Masi, D., & Jacinto, C. (2013). Economic evaluation of OSH and its way to SMEs: A constructive review. Safety Science, 53, 134-152. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2012.08.016Badri, A., Gbodossou, A., & Nadeau, S. (2012). Occupational health and safety risks: Towards the integration into project management. Safety Science, 50(2), 190-198. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2011.08.008Carlson, R., Erixon, M., Forsberg, P., & Pålsson, A.-C. (2001). System for integrated business environmental information management. Advances in Environmental Research, 5(4), 369-375. doi:10.1016/s1093-0191(01)00088-0Florio, C., & Leoni, G. (2017). Enterprise risk management and firm performance: The Italian case. The British Accounting Review, 49(1), 56-74. doi:10.1016/j.bar.2016.08.003Aven, T., & Ylönen, M. (2018). A risk interpretation of sociotechnical safety perspectives. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 175, 13-18. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.004Skorupinska, A., & Torrent-Sellens, J. (2017). ICT, Innovation and Productivity: Evidence Based on Eastern European Manufacturing Companies. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 8(2), 768-788. doi:10.1007/s13132-016-0441-1Benitez‐Amado, J., Llorens‐Montes, F. J., & Nieves Perez‐Arostegui, M. (2010). Information technology‐enabled intrapreneurship culture and firm performance. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 110(4), 550-566. doi:10.1108/02635571011039025González-Posada, D. M., & Reyes-Bedoya, N. (2019). Herramientas de gestión al alcance: caso red de hostales de la ciudad de Medellín. Revista CEA, 5(9), 113-129. doi:10.22430/24223182.1261Hernandis Ortuño, B., & Briede Westermeyer, J. C. (2009). AN EDUCATIONAL APPLICATION FOR A PRODUCT DESIGN AND ENGINEERING SYSTEMS USING INTEGRATED CONCEPTUAL MODELS. Ingeniare. Revista chilena de ingeniería, 17(3). doi:10.4067/s0718-3305200900030001

High Impact Weather Events in the Andes

Owing to the extraordinary latitudinal extent, a strong orographic variability with very high mountain tops, and the presence of deep valleys and steep slopes, the Andes and the population of the region are highly prone and vulnerable to the impacts of a large suite of extreme weather events. Here we provide a review of the most salient events in terms of losses of human and animal lives, economic and monetary losses in costs and damages, and social disruption, namely: (1) extreme precipitation events and related processes (Mesoscale Convective Systems, lightning), (2) cold spells, frosts, and high winds, (3) the impacts of ENSO on extreme hydro-meteorological events, (4) floods, (5) landslides, mudslides, avalanches, and (6) droughts, heat waves and fires. For our purposes, we focus this review on three distinctive regions along the Andes: Northern tropical (north of 8°S), Southern tropical (8°S-27°S) and Extratropical Andes (south of 27°S). Research gaps are also identified and discussed at the end of this review. It is very likely that climate change will increase the vulnerability of the millions of inhabitants of the Andes, impacting their livelihoods and the sustainable development of the region into the twenty first century amidst urbanization, deforestation, air, soil and water pollution, and land use changes.Fil: Poveda, Germán. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Espinoza, Jhan Carlo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Zuluaga, Manuel D.. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Garreaud, René. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: van Oevelen, Peter J.. International GEWEX Project Office; Estados Unido

ISO 50001: 2018 and Its Application in a Comprehensive Management System with an Energy-Performance Focus

[EN] Business progress and human development are linked to the efficient management of energy resources. The research in this paper contributes to the generalized application of good practices that reduce the vulnerability of companies. The research focuses on energy efficiency through comprehensive management systems (CMS), and "thought based on risks and opportunities", considering the discussion about the revision of ISO 50001:2018, the basic approach of the model and the route to implement CMS for quality, safety and health in the workplace, environmental management, energy efficiency, and other risk components. This implementation route, with the acronym CMS QHSE3+, places special emphasis on the functions of strategic planning, operational and risk management, and controls, as well as on deliverables and references to examples, templates, standards, and documents, to facilitate its application general in small and medium enterprises and in the management of energy efficiency.We express our gratitude for the support received, to CAJACOPI ATLÁNTICO, QUARA Group, ASTEQ Technology, Simón Bolivar University, the Universitat Politècnica de València, SANTO TORIBIO Business Group, and to all the personalities and companies who offered us their contributions and their valuable points of view.Poveda-Orjuela, PP.; García-Díaz, JC.; Pulido-Rojano, A.; Cañón-Zabala, G. (2019). ISO 50001: 2018 and Its Application in a Comprehensive Management System with an Energy-Performance Focus. 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International Journal of Production Economics, 173, 66-79. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.12.007Thekdi, S., & Aven, T. (2016). An enhanced data-analytic framework for integrating risk management and performance management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 156, 277-287. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.010Aven, T., & Krohn, B. S. (2014). A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 121, 1-10. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.005Wilson, J. P., & Campbell, L. (2018). ISO 9001:2015: the evolution and convergence of quality management and knowledge management for competitive advantage. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 31(7-8), 761-776. doi:10.1080/14783363.2018.1445965Ciravegna Martins da Fonseca, L. M. (2015). ISO 14001:2015: An improved tool for sustainability. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 8(1). doi:10.3926/jiem.1298Cosgrove, J., Littlewood, J., & Wilgeroth, P. (2017). Development of a framework of key performance indicators to identify reductions in energy consumption in a medical devices production facility. International Journal of Ambient Energy, 39(2), 202-210. doi:10.1080/01430750.2017.1278718Castrillón Mendoza, R., Rey Hernández, J., Velasco Gómez, E., San José Alonso, J., & Rey Martínez, F. (2018). Analysis of the Methodology to Obtain Several Key Indicators Performance (KIP), by Energy Retrofitting of the Actual Building to the District Heating Fuelled by Biomass, Focusing on nZEB Goal: Case of Study. Energies, 12(1), 93. doi:10.3390/en12010093Chiu, T.-Y., Lo, S.-L., & Tsai, Y.-Y. (2012). Establishing an Integration-Energy-Practice Model for Improving Energy Performance Indicators in ISO 50001 Energy Management Systems. Energies, 5(12), 5324-5339. doi:10.3390/en5125324Laskurain, I., Ibarloza, A., Larrea, A., & Allur, E. (2017). Contribution to Energy Management of the Main Standards for Environmental Management Systems: The Case of ISO 14001 and EMAS. Energies, 10(11), 1758. doi:10.3390/en10111758Al-Sakkaf, S., Kassas, M., Khalid, M., & Abido, M. A. (2019). An Energy Management System for Residential Autonomous DC Microgrid Using Optimized Fuzzy Logic Controller Considering Economic Dispatch. Energies, 12(8), 1457. doi:10.3390/en12081457Zobel, T., & Malmgren, C. (2016). Evaluating the Management System Approach for Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvements. Energies, 9(10), 774. doi:10.3390/en9100774Laskurain, I., Heras-Saizarbitoria, I., & Casadesús, M. (2015). Fostering renewable energy sources by standards for environmental and energy management. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 50, 1148-1156. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.05.050Stoeglehner, G., Niemetz, N., & Kettl, K.-H. (2011). Spatial dimensions of sustainable energy systems: new visions for integrated spatial and energy planning. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 1(1). doi:10.1186/2192-0567-1-2Calvillo, C. F., Sánchez-Miralles, A., & Villar, J. (2016). Energy management and planning in smart cities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 55, 273-287. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.133Blaauwbroek, N., Nguyen, P. H., Konsman, M. J., Shi, H., Kamphuis, R. I. G., & Kling, W. L. (2015). Decentralized Resource Allocation and Load Scheduling for Multicommodity Smart Energy Systems. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 6(4), 1506-1514. doi:10.1109/tste.2015.2441107Mao, M., Jin, P., Hatziargyriou, N. D., & Chang, L. (2014). Multiagent-Based Hybrid Energy Management System for Microgrids. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 1-1. doi:10.1109/tste.2014.2313882Carli, R., & Dotoli, M. (2019). Decentralized control for residential energy management of a smart users microgrid with renewable energy exchange. IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica, 6(3), 641-656. doi:10.1109/jas.2019.1911462The ISO 27k Forumhttps://www.iso27001 security.com/html/iso27000.htmlIntroduction to the Basic Concepts of General Systems Theory. Cinta de Moebiohttp://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=10100306Von Bertalanffy, L. (1950). The Theory of Open Systems in Physics and Biology. Science, 111(2872), 23-29. doi:10.1126/science.111.2872.23Hernandis Ortuño, B., & Briede Westermeyer, J. C. (2009). AN EDUCATIONAL APPLICATION FOR A PRODUCT DESIGN AND ENGINEERING SYSTEMS USING INTEGRATED CONCEPTUAL MODELS. Ingeniare. Revista chilena de ingeniería, 17(3). doi:10.4067/s0718-33052009000300017Howard, T. J., Culley, S. J., & Dekoninck, E. (2008). Describing the creative design process by the integration of engineering design and cognitive psychology literature. Design Studies, 29(2), 160-180. doi:10.1016/j.destud.2008.01.001Conceptual Model and Route to Implement a Comprehensive Management System QHSE3+, in New Trends in Operations Research and Administrative Sciences. An Approach from Latin American Studieshttps://bonga.unisimon.edu.co/handle/20.500.12442/2601Golini, R., Kalchschmidt, M., & Landoni, P. (2015). Adoption of project management practices: The impact on international development projects of non-governmental organizations. International Journal of Project Management, 33(3), 650-663. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.09.006Marcelino-Sádaba, S., González-Jaen, L. F., & Pérez-Ezcurdia, A. (2015). Using project management as a way to sustainability. From a comprehensive review to a framework definition. Journal of Cleaner Production, 99, 1-16. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.03.020Archer, N. ., & Ghasemzadeh, F. (1999). An integrated framework for project portfolio selection. International Journal of Project Management, 17(4), 207-216. doi:10.1016/s0263-7863(98)00032-5Velásquez-Restrepo, S. M., Londoño-Gallego, J. A., López-Romero, C., & Vahos, J. D. (2018). Desarrollo de una plataforma web multimedial para la elaboración de proyectos bajo la metodología de marco lógico. Lámpsakos, 1(18), 12. doi:10.21501/21454086.2601Crawford, P., & Bryce, P. (2003). Project monitoring and evaluation: a method for enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of aid project implementation. International Journal of Project Management, 21(5), 363-373. doi:10.1016/s0263-7863(02)00060-1San Cristóbal, J. R., Carral, L., Diaz, E., Fraguela, J. A., & Iglesias, G. (2018). Complexity and Project Management: A General Overview. Complexity, 2018, 1-10. doi:10.1155/2018/4891286Ramasesh, R. V., & Browning, T. R. (2014). A conceptual framework for tackling knowable unknown unknowns in project management. 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SEAM4US: An intelligent energy management system for underground stations. Applied Energy, 166, 150-164. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.01.029Matrawy, K. K., Mahrous, A.-F., & Youssef, M. S. (2015). Energy management and parametric optimization of an integrated PV solar house. Energy Conversion and Management, 96, 377-383. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2015.02.088Kyriakarakos, G., Dounis, A. I., Arvanitis, K. G., & Papadakis, G. (2012). A fuzzy logic energy management system for polygeneration microgrids. Renewable Energy, 41, 315-327. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2011.11.019Johansson, M. T., & Thollander, P. (2018). A review of barriers to and driving forces for improved energy efficiency in Swedish industry– Recommendations for successful in-house energy management. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82, 618-628. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.052Jovanović, B., & Filipović, J. (2016). ISO 50001 standard-based energy management maturity model – proposal and validation in industry. 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Hydroclimate of the Andes Part II: Hydroclimate Variability and Sub-Continental Patterns

This paper provides an updated review of the most relevant scientific literature related to the hydroclimate of the Andes. The Andes, the longest cordillera in the world, faces major challenges regarding climate variability and climate change, which impose several threats to sustainable development, including water supply and the sustainability of ecosystem services. This review focuses on hydroclimate variability of the Andes at a sub-continental scale. The annual water cycle and long-term water balance along the Andes are addressed first, followed by the examination of the effects of orography on convective and frontal precipitation through the study of precipitation gradients in the tropical, subtropical and extratropical Andes. In addition, a review is presented of the current scientific literature on the climate variability in the Andes at different timescales. Finally, open research questions are presented in the last section of this article.Fil: Arias, Paola A.. Universidad de Antioquia; ColombiaFil: Garreaud, René. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Poveda, Germán. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Espinoza, Jhan Carlo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Molina Carpio, Jorge. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; BoliviaFil: Masiokas, Mariano Hugo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Viale, Maximiliano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Scaff, Lucia. University of Saskatchewan; CanadáFil: van Oevelen, Peter J.. George Mason University; Estados Unido

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System

Limitations of Water Resources Infrastructure for Reducing Community Vulnerabilities to Extremes and Uncertainty of Flood and Drought

Debate and deliberation surrounding climate change has shifted from mitigation toward adaptation, with much of the adaptation focus centered on adaptive practices, and infrastructure development. However, there is little research assessing expected impacts, potential benefits, and design challenges that exist for reducing vulnerability to expected climate impacts. The uncertainty of design requirements and associated government policies, and social structures that reflect observed and projected changes in the intensity, duration, and frequency of water-related climate events leaves communities vulnerable to the negative impacts of potential flood and drought. The results of international research into how agricultural infrastructure features in current and planned adaptive capacity of rural communities in Argentina, Canada, and Colombia indicate that extreme hydroclimatic events, as well as climate variability and unpredictability are important for understanding and responding to community vulnerability. The research outcomes clearly identify the need to deliberately plan, coordinate, and implement infrastructures that support community resiliency.Fil: McMartin, Dena W.. University of Regina; CanadáFil: Hernani Merino, Bruno H.. University of Regina; CanadáFil: Bonsal, Barrie. Environment Canada; CanadáFil: Hurlbert, Margot. University of Regina; CanadáFil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Cientifícas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Ocampo, Olga L.. Universidad Autónoma de Manizales; ColombiaFil: Upegui, Jorge Julián Vélez. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Poveda, Germán. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Sauchyn, David J.. University of Regina; Canad

The ecology of peace : preparing Colombia for new political and planetary climates

ABSTRACT: Colombia, one of the world’s most species-rich nations, is currently undergoing a profound social transition: the end of a decadeslong conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC. The peace agreement process will likely transform the country’s physical and socioeconomic landscapes at a time when humans are altering Earth’s atmosphere and climate in unprecedented ways. We discuss ways in which these transformative events will act in combination to shape the ecological and environmental future of Colombia. We also highlight the risks of creating perverse development incentives in these critical times, along with the potential benefits – for the country and the world – if Colombia can navigate through the peace process in a way that protects its own environment and ecosystems

Implicaciones metodológicas e inconsistencias de la Tercera Comunicación Nacional sobre Cambio Climático de Colombia

Las Comunicaciones Nacionales sobre Cambio Climático (CNCC) son un mecanismo para que los países informen sus avances en mitigación y adaptación, y constituyen uno de los elementos de base para la política sobre cambio climático a escala nacional. Colombia ha emitido tres CNCC. La tercera plantea un escenario que considera las proyecciones de diversos modelos incluidos en la quinta fase del Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP), el cual se estima como el promedio de las proyecciones correspondientes a las cuatro trayectorias de concentración representativa (Representative Concentration Pathways,RCP) presentadas en el quinto reporte de evaluación del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático. Cada una de estas RCP representa una trayectoria de concentración de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) para un escenario particular de crecimiento poblacional, económico y tecnológico que conduce a una posible trayectoria de evolución del sistema climático. En este estudio se comparan las proyecciones presentadas en la Tercera CNCC con las obtenidas directamente de los modelos empleados. Nuestros resultados demuestran que al utilizarse un promedio de RCP se pierden escenarios alternos que podrían ser importantes a la hora de considerar posibles futuros diferentes y anulan la utilidad de plantear diversas trayectorias de emisiones de GEI. Más aun, una comparación entre la Segunda y la Tercera CNCC muestra proyecciones de precipitación opuestas para diferentes regiones del país, lo cual es de particular importancia, pues el escenario de cambio climático planteado en la Tercera CNCC sirve de referencia para la toma de decisiones en materia de cambio climático a nivel nacional

Testing the Beta-Lognormal Model in Amazonian Rainfall Fields Using the Generalized Space q-Entropy

We study spatial scaling and complexity properties of Amazonian radar rainfall fields using the Beta-Lognormal Model (BL-Model) with the aim to characterize and model the process at a broad range of spatial scales. The Generalized Space q-Entropy Function (GSEF), an entropic measure defined as a continuous set of power laws covering a broad range of spatial scales, S q ( λ ) ∼ λ Ω ( q ), is used as a tool to check the ability of the BL-Model to represent observed 2-D radar rainfall fields. In addition, we evaluate the effect of the amount of zeros, the variability of rainfall intensity, the number of bins used to estimate the probability mass function, and the record length on the GSFE estimation. Our results show that: (i) the BL-Model adequately represents the scaling properties of the q-entropy, S q, for Amazonian rainfall fields across a range of spatial scales λ from 2 km to 64 km; (ii) the q-entropy in rainfall fields can be characterized by a non-additivity value, q s a t, at which rainfall reaches a maximum scaling exponent, Ω s a t; (iii) the maximum scaling exponent Ω s a t is directly related to the amount of zeros in rainfall fields and is not sensitive to either the number of bins to estimate the probability mass function or the variability of rainfall intensity; and (iv) for small-samples, the GSEF of rainfall fields may incur in considerable bias. Finally, for synthetic 2-D rainfall fields from the BL-Model, we look for a connection between intermittency using a metric based on generalized Hurst exponents, M ( q 1 , q 2 ), and the non-extensive order (q-order) of a system, Θ q, which relates to the GSEF. Our results do not exhibit evidence of such relationship