Is it civic duty? An exploratory study of factors that influenced the public's decision to download the NHS COVID-19 app

Background/Aims The UK Government piloted a COVID-19 digital contact tracing smartphone app on the Isle of Wight, England, in June 2020 in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus. This study aimed to investigate the factors that affected the decision to download the app among individuals in the Isle of Wight. Methods Online questionnaires were distributed over social media to the sample population. Quantitative data were analysed, both descriptively and using a Chi-square or Fisher’s test. Qualitative data were analysed through content analysis. Results Overall, 74.2% of participants downloaded the COVID-19 app, citing compliance, protection and fighting the pandemic or returning to normal as their main reasons. There was a significant negative correlation between having concerns about the app and downloading the app (P=<0.01). Concerns were split into the three themes of privacy/data security concerns, technology issues, and increased complacency. There was a significant negative correlation between being in a COVID-19 high-risk group and downloading the app (P=0.042). Conclusions Concerns about the COVID-19 app, particularly in terms of its security, significantly affected whether participants were likely to download it. The results provide insight into factors influencing mass public health behaviours and can form the basis for future research into app-based interventions

Has Molecular Docking Ever Brought us a Medicine?

Molecular docking has been developed and improving for many years, but its ability to bring a medicine to the drug market effectively is still generally questioned. In this chapter, we introduce several successful cases including drugs for treatment of HIV, cancers, and other prevalent diseases. The technical details such as docking software, protein data bank (PDB) structures, and other computational methods employed are also collected and displayed. In most of the cases, the structures of drugs or drug candidates and the interacting residues on the target proteins are also presented. In addition, a few successful examples of drug repurposing using molecular docking are mentioned in this chapter. It should provide us with confidence that the docking will be extensively employed in the industry and basic research. Moreover, we should actively apply molecular docking and related technology to create new therapies for diseases

Estimating risk of encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis accounting for the competing risk of death

Background: Risk of Encapsulating Peritoneal Sclerosis (EPS) is strongly associated with the duration of peritoneal dialysis (PD), such that patients who have been on PD for some time may consider elective transfer to haemodialysis to mitigate risk of EPS. There is a need to determine this risk to better inform clinical decision-making, but previous studies have not allowed for the competing risk of death. Methods: This study included new adult PD patients in either Australia and New Zealand (ANZ 1990-2010) or Scotland (2000-2008) followed until 2012. Age, time on PD, primary renal disease, gender, dataset and diabetic status were evaluated as predictors at start of PD, then at three and five years after starting PD using flexible parametric competing risks models. Results: In 17,396 patients (16,162 ANZ, 1,234 Scotland), EPS was observed in 99 (0.57%) patients less frequently in ANZ patients (n=65, 0.4%) than in Scottish patients (n=34, 2.8%). The estimated risk of EPS was much lower when the competing risk of death was taken into account (1-KM=0.0126, CIF=0.0054). Strong predictors of EPS included age, primary renal disease and time on PD. The risk of EPS was reasonably discriminated at the start of PD (C-statistic = 0.74 to 0.79) and this improved at 3 and 5 years after starting PD (C-statistic = 0.81 to 0.92). Conclusions: EPS risk estimates are lower when calculated using competing risk of death analyses. A patient’s estimated risk of EPS is country-specific, and can be predicted using age, primary renal disease and duration of PD

Intervening to eliminate the centre-effect variation in home dialysis use: protocol for Inter-CEPt-a sequential mixed-methods study designing an intervention bundle.

INTRODUCTION: Use of home dialysis by centres in the UK varies considerably and is decreasing despite attempts to encourage greater use. Knowing what drives this unwarranted variation requires in-depth understanding of centre cultural and organisational factors and how these relate to quantifiable centre performance, accounting for competing treatment options. This knowledge will be used to identify components of a practical and feasible intervention bundle ensuring this is realistic and cost-effective. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Underpinned by the non-adoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread and sustainability framework, our research will use an exploratory sequential mixed-methods approach. Insights from multisited focused team ethnographic and qualitative research at four case study sites will inform development of a national survey of 52 centres. Survey results, linked to patient-level data from the UK Renal Registry, will populate a causal graph describing patient and centre-level factors, leading to uptake of home dialysis and multistate models incorporating patient-level treatment modality history and mortality. This will inform a contemporary economic evaluation of modality cost-effectiveness that will quantify how modification of factors facilitating home dialysis, identified from the ethnography and survey, might yield the greatest improvements in costs, quality of life and numbers on home therapies. Selected from these factors, using the capability, opportunity and motivation for behaviour change framework (COM-B) for intervention design, the optimal intervention bundle will be developed through workshops with patients and healthcare professionals to ensure acceptability and feasibility. Patient and public engagement and involvement is embedded throughout the project. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been granted by the Health Research Authority reference 20-WA-0249. The intervention bundle will comprise components for all stake holder groups: commissioners, provider units, recipients of dialysis, their caregivers and families. To reache all these groups, a variety of knowledge exchange methods will be used: short guides, infographics, case studies, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines, patient conferences, 'Getting it Right First Time' initiative, Clinical Reference Group (dialysis)

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The inference of gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) historical population attributes from whole-genome sequences

Commercial whaling caused extensive demographic declines in many great whale species, including gray whales that were extirpated from the Atlantic Ocean and dramatically reduced in the Pacific Ocean. The Eastern Pacific gray whale has recovered since the 1982 ban on commercial whaling, but the Western Pacific gray whale-once considered possibly extinct-consists of only about 200 individuals and is considered critically endangered by some international authorities. Herein, we use whole-genome sequencing to investigate the demographic history of gray whales from the Pacific and use environmental niche modelling to make predictions about future gene flow.Our sequencing efforts and habitat niche modelling indicate that: i) western gray whale effective population sizes have declined since the last glacial maximum; ii) contemporary gray whale genomes, both eastern and western, harbor less autosomal nucleotide diversity than most other marine mammals and megafauna; iii) the extent of inbreeding, as measured by autozygosity, is greater in the Western Pacific than in the Eastern Pacific populations; and iv) future climate change is expected to open new migratory routes for gray whales.Our results indicate that gray whale genomes contain low nucleotide diversity and have been subject to both historical and recent inbreeding. Population sizes over the last million years likely peaked about 25,000 years before present and have declined since then. Our niche modelling suggests that novel migratory routes may develop within the next century and if so this could help retain overall genetic diversity, which is essential for adaption and successful recovery in light of global environmental change and past exploitation

Older age does not influence CD4 cell recovery in HIV-1 infected patients receiving Highly Active Anti Retroviral Therapy

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of HIV infection is recently occurring with increasing frequency in middle-aged and in older individuals. As HAART became available, a minimal beneficial effect on immunological outcome in older in respect of younger subjects has been reported. In fact, both the intensity and the rapidity of the immunological response appeared to be reduced in elderly subjects. On the contrary, only few reports have indicated a similar immunological outcome both in older and younger HIV-positive subjects. Interestingly, older age did not seem to significantly affect the long-term virological outcome of HAART treated subjects. METHODS: To characterise epidemiological and clinical features of older HIV+ subjects, a prospective case-control study was performed: 120 subjects ≥ 50 and 476 between 20 and 35 years were initially compared. Subsequently, to better define the impact of HAART on their viro-immunological response, 81 older were compared with 162 younger subjects. RESULTS: At baseline cases presented significantly lower TCD4+ cell number and were more frequently affected by comorbid conditions. Under HAART a statistically significant increase in TCD4+ cell number was observed in cases and controls. At multivariate analysis, there was no statistically significant difference between cases and controls regarding viro-immunological response. CONCLUSIONS: Although older subjects present a more severe HIV infection, they can achieve, under HAART, the same viro-immunological success as the younger individuals

Influences motivating smokers in a radon-affected area to quit smoking

Domestic radon gas concentrations in parts of the UK are sufficiently high to increase lung cancer risk among residents, and recent studies have confirmed that the risk of smokers developing lung cancer is significantly enhanced by the presence of radon. Despite campaigns encouraging residents of radon-affected areas (RAEs) to test and remediate their homes, public response to the risks posed by radon remains relatively modest, particularly among smokers and young families, limiting the health benefits and cost-effectiveness achievable by remediation. The observation that smokers, who are most at risk from radon, are not explicitly targeted by current radon remediation campaigns prompted an assessment of the value of smoking-cessation initiatives in reducing radon-induced lung cancers by reaching at-risk subgroups of the population hitherto uninfluenced by radon-awareness programmes. This study addresses the motivation of current quitters in a designated RAE using a postal questionnaire administered around one year after the cessation attempt. Residents of the Northamptonshire RAE who had joined the smoking-cessation programme between July and September 2006 and who remained verifiably tobacco free at four weeks, were subsequently invited to participate in a questionnaire-based investigation into factors affecting their decision to cease smoking. From an initial population of 445 eligible individuals, 205 of those contacted by telephone after 12 months agreed to complete postal questionnaires, and unsolicited questionnaires were sent to a further 112 participants for whom telephone contact had proved impossible. One hundred and three completed questionnaires were returned and analysed, the principal tools being c2, Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Individuals decide to quit smoking from self-interest, principally on health grounds, and regard the effects of their smoke on others, particularly children and unborn babies, as less significant. The risk of developing respiratory, coronary/cardiac or cancerous conditions provides the greatest motivation to the decision to quit, with knowledge of radon among the lowest-ranked influences. This study confirms that quitters place risks to their personal health as the highest factors influencing their decision to quit, and health professionals should be aware of this when designing smoking-cessation initiatives. As radon risk is ranked very low by quitters, there would appear to be the potential to raise radon awareness through smoking-cessation programmes, with the objective of increasing the uptake and success rate of such programmes and encouraging participation in radon-remediation programmes

Habitat-Specific Morphological Variation among Threespine Sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) within a Drainage Basin

Habitat-specific morphological variation, often corresponding to resource specialization, is well documented in freshwater fishes. In this study we used landmark based morphometric analyses to investigate morphological variation among threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) from four interconnected habitat types within a single lowland drainage basin in eastern England. These included the upper and lower reaches of the river, the estuary, a connected ditch network and a coastal salt marsh. We found significant habitat-specific differences in morphology, with three axes of variation describing differences in orbit diameter, body depth, caudal peduncle shape and pectoral fin positioning as well as variation in relative dorsal and pelvic spine size. Interestingly, the ditch system, an artificial and heavily managed habitat, is populated by sticklebacks with a characteristic morphology, suggesting that human management of habitats can in some circumstances lead to morphological variation among the animals that inhabit them. We discuss the mechanisms that conceivably underlie the observed morphological variation and the further work necessary to identify them. Finally, we consider the implications of habitat-specific body shape variation for the behavioural ecology of this ecologically generalist species