Secularism, fundamentalism or Catholicism: the religious composition of the United States to 2043

We provide a cohort-component projection of the religious composition of the United States, considering differences in fertility, migration, intergenerational religious transmission, and switching among 11 ethnoreligious groups. If fertility and migration trends continue, Hispanic Catholics will experience rapid growth and expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043. Protestants are projected to decrease from 47 to 39 percent over the same period, while Catholicism emerges as the largest religion among the youngest age cohorts. Liberal Protestants decline relative to other groups due to low fertility and losses from religious switching. Immigration drives growth among Hindus and Muslims, while low fertility and a mature age structure causes Jewish decline. The low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of immigrants provide a countervailing force to secularization, causing the nonreligious population share to peak before 2043

Americans Fill Out President Obama's Census Form: What is His Race?*

Objective: We use nationally representative survey experiments to assess public opinion about how President Obama should have identified himself racially on the 2010 Census. Methods: Respondents were randomly assigned to three conditions-a control, a treatment that described the president's biracial ancestry, and a treatment that combined the biracial ancestry information with a statement that Obama had in fact classified himself as black only. All respondents were then asked how they felt Obama should have filled out his Census form. Results: A clear majority of Americans in all experimental conditions said that Obama should have identified himself as both black and white. Conclusion: There appears to be suggesting robust acceptance of official multiracial identification despite the cultural and legal legacy of the "one drop of blood" rule in official U.S. race categorization. A subsequent survey experiment found that a convenience sample of Americans support multiracial identification for mixed-race individuals generally and not only for the president

Media use, anti-Americanism and international support for the Iraq War

This study investigates the impact of pre-war news coverage on international support for President Bush's decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The study is based on a survey conducted one week prior to the start of the Iraq War among 1787 university students from six countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The findings indicate that exposure to pre-war news coverage was associated with more positive attitudes toward Iraq and higher levels of fear related to the possible consequences of a war. Stronger international support for a US invasion correlated with more positive attitudes toward Iraq, less fear about a possible war and lower levels of anti-Americanism. Copyright © 2006 Sage Publications

Potential for comparative public opinion research in public administration

The public administration and public services have always taken a marginal place in the political scientists’ behavioural research. Public administration students on the other hand tend to focus on political and administrative elites and institutions, and largely ignored citizens in comparative research. In this article we make a plea for international comparative research on citizens’ attitudes towards the public administration from an interdisciplinary perspective. Available international survey material is discussed, and main trends in empirical practice and theoretical approaches are outlined, especially those with a potential impact on public sector reform

Religiosity and decreased risk of substance use disorders: is the effect mediated by social support or mental health status?

The negative association between religiosity (religious beliefs and church attendance) and the likelihood of substance use disorders is well established, but the mechanism(s) remain poorly understood. We investigated whether this association was mediated by social support or mental health status. We utilized cross-sectional data from the 2002 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (n = 36,370). We first used logistic regression to regress any alcohol use in the past year on sociodemographic and religiosity variables. Then, among individuals who drank in the past year, we regressed past year alcohol abuse/dependence on sociodemographic and religiosity variables. To investigate whether social support mediated the association between religiosity and alcohol use and alcohol abuse/dependence we repeated the above models, adding the social support variables. To the extent that these added predictors modified the magnitude of the effect of the religiosity variables, we interpreted social support as a possible mediator. We also formally tested for mediation using path analysis. We investigated the possible mediating role of mental health status analogously. Parallel sets of analyses were conducted for any drug use, and drug abuse/dependence among those using any drugs as the dependent variables. The addition of social support and mental health status variables to logistic regression models had little effect on the magnitude of the religiosity coefficients in any of the models. While some of the tests of mediation were significant in the path analyses, the results were not always in the expected direction, and the magnitude of the effects was small. The association between religiosity and decreased likelihood of a substance use disorder does not appear to be substantively mediated by either social support or mental health status