Black hole mergers in the universe

Mergers of black-hole binaries are expected to release large amounts of energy in the form of gravitational radiation. However, binary evolution models predict merger rates too low to be of observational interest. In this paper we explore the possibility that black holes become members of close binaries via dynamical interactions with other stars in dense stellar systems. In star clusters, black holes become the most massive objects within a few tens of millions of years; dynamical relaxation then causes them to sink to the cluster core, where they form binaries. These black-hole binaries become more tightly bound by superelastic encounters with other cluster members, and are ultimately ejected from the cluster. The majority of escaping black-hole binaries have orbital periods short enough and eccentricities high enough that the emission of gravitational radiation causes them to coalesce within a few billion years. We predict a black-hole merger rate of about $1.6 \times 10^{-7}$ per year per cubic megaparsec, implying gravity wave detection rates substantially greater than the corresponding rates from neutron star mergers. For the first generation Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO-I), we expect about one detection during the first two years of operation. For its successor LIGO-II, the rate rises to roughly one detection per day. The uncertainties in these numbers are large. Event rates may drop by about an order of magnitude if the most massive clusters eject their black hole binaries early in their evolution.Comment: 12 pages, ApJL in pres

Hyperfast pulsars as the remnants of massive stars ejected from young star clusters

Recent proper motion and parallax measurements for the pulsar PSR B1508+55 indicate a transverse velocity of ~1100 km/s, which exceeds earlier measurements for any neutron star. The spin-down characteristics of PSR B1508+55 are typical for a non-recycled pulsar, which implies that the velocity of the pulsar cannot have originated from the second supernova disruption of a massive binary system. The high velocity of PSR B1508+55 can be accounted for by assuming that it received a kick at birth or that the neutron star was accelerated after its formation in the supernova explosion. We propose an explanation for the origin of hyperfast neutron stars based on the hypothesis that they could be the remnants of a symmetric supernova explosion of a high-velocity massive star which attained its peculiar velocity (similar to that of the pulsar) in the course of a strong dynamical three- or four-body encounter in the core of dense young star cluster. To check this hypothesis we investigated three dynamical processes involving close encounters between: (i) two hard massive binaries, (ii) a hard binary and an intermediate-mass black hole, and (iii) a single star and a hard binary intermediate-mass black hole. We find that main-sequence O-type stars cannot be ejected from young massive star clusters with peculiar velocities high enough to explain the origin of hyperfast neutron stars, but lower mass main-sequence stars or the stripped helium cores of massive stars could be accelerated to hypervelocities. Our explanation for the origin of hyperfast pulsars requires a very dense stellar environment of the order of 10^6 -10^7 stars pc^{-3}. Although such high densities may exist during the core collapse of young massive star clusters, we caution that they have never been observed.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, accepted to MNRA

Extending the SSD concept to explore some foundational model limitations: a Bayesian hierarchical approach

Species sensitivity distributions are statistical constructs which model interspecies variation of sensitivity to a particular toxic stressor. The current REACH technical guidance document permits the application of SSDs in risk assessment, subject to a number of criteria. Notwithstanding noteworthy criticism received, the SSD is considered by regulators to be a pragmatic model for extrapolating to environmental toxicant concentrations of concern. The manner in which SSDs are currently applied is implicitly dependent on a number of (overlapping) statistical and ecological assumptions. These include (but are not limited to): (1) the measured species toxicity values being precisely known; (2) independence of SSDs for each separate chemical risk assessment; (3) a priori exchangeability of species toxicity values; (4) no correlation between species. In this research we propose a model which generalizes the SSD concept to include chemical effects and shared species effects. It offers flexibility to address or refine each assumption by hierarchically adding layers into the model. Models are fitted to RIVM and US EPA acute-effect toxicity databases under a Bayesian statistical framework to allow for transparent quantification of and flexible propagation of uncertainty. Important insight is gained from the inclusion of ‘species effects’ modelling which, expectedly, indicates increasing differences as taxonomic distances in SSDs increase. The magnitude of measurement error estimated, based on within taxa homogeneity, which also properly accounts for censored measurements, is likely to be of significance to risk assessors and warrant further consideration in either modelling framework. The current quasi-meta-analysis approach towards aggregating multiple chemical-species data points is untenable from an uncertainty viewpoint. Initial results indicate deficiencies in the current SSD concept, thus reducing the credibility and meaningfulness of any subsequently derived hazardous concentrations. Other recent model proposals which act as precursory tools to SSD modelling may not sensibly propagate uncertainty and/or succumb to modelling contradictions. A hierarchical model may overcome this, however will require a more radical approach to defining protection goals and environmental concentrations of concern

The Frequency of Binary Stars in the Core of 47 Tucanae

Differential time series photometry has been derived for 46422 main-sequence stars in the core of 47 Tucanae. The observations consisted of near-continuous 160-s exposures alternating between the F555W and F814W filters for 8.3 days in 1999 July with WFPC2 on the Hubble Space Telescope. Using Fourier and other search methods, eleven detached eclipsing binaries and fifteen W UMa stars have been discovered, plus an additional ten contact or near-contact non-eclipsing systems. After correction for non-uniform area coverage of the survey, the observed frequencies of detached eclipsing binaries and W UMa's within 90 arcseconds of the cluster center are 0.022% and 0.031% respectively. The observed detached eclipsing binary frequency, the assumptions of a flat binary distribution with log period and that the eclipsing binaries with periods longer than about 4 days have essentially their primordial periods, imply an overall binary frequency of 13 +/- 6 %. The observed W UMa frequency and the additional assumptions that W UMa's have been brought to contact according to tidal circularization and angular momentum loss theory and that the contact binary lifetime is 10^{9} years, imply an overall binary frequency of 14 +/- 4 %. An additional 71 variables with periods from 0.4 - 10 days have been found which are likely to be BY Draconis stars in binary systems. The radial distribution of these stars is the same as that of the eclipsing binaries and W UMa stars and is more centrally concentrated than average stars, but less so than the blue straggler stars. A distinct subset of six of these stars fall in an unexpected domain of the CMD, comprising what we propose to call red stragglers.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, 65 pages including 26 figure

One Is Enough: In Vivo Effective Population Size Is Dose-Dependent for a Plant RNA Virus

Effective population size (Ne) determines the strength of genetic drift and the frequency of co-infection by multiple genotypes, making it a key factor in viral evolution. Experimental estimates of Ne for different plant viruses have, however, rendered diverging results. The independent action hypothesis (IAH) states that each virion has a probability of infection, and that virions act independent of one another during the infection process. A corollary of IAH is that Ne must be dose dependent. A test of IAH for a plant virus has not been reported yet. Here we perform a test of an IAH infection model using a plant RNA virus, Tobacco etch virus (TEV) variants carrying GFP or mCherry fluorescent markers, in Nicotiana tabacum and Capsicum annuum plants. The number of primary infection foci increased linearly with dose, and was similar to a Poisson distribution. At high doses, primary infection foci containing both genotypes were found at a low frequency (<2%). The probability that a genotype that infected the inoculated leaf would systemically infect that plant was near 1, although in a few rare cases genotypes could be trapped in the inoculated leaf by being physically surrounded by the other genotype. The frequency of mixed-genotype infection could be predicted from the mean number of primary infection foci using the independent-action model. Independent action appears to hold for TEV, and Ne is therefore dose-dependent for this plant RNA virus. The mean number of virions causing systemic infection can be very small, and approaches 1 at low doses. Dose-dependency in TEV suggests that comparison of Ne estimates for different viruses are not very meaningful unless dose effects are taken into consideration

Downregulation of organic cation transporters OCT1 (SLC22A1) and OCT3 (SLC22A3) in human hepatocellular carcinoma and their prognostic significance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Organic cation transporters (OCT) are responsible for the uptake and intracellular inactivation of a broad spectrum of endogenous substrates and detoxification of xenobiotics and chemotherapeutics. The transporters became pharmaceutically interesting, because OCTs are determinants of the cytotoxicity of platin derivates and the transport activity has been shown to correlate with the sensitivity of tumors towards tyrosine kinase inhibitors. No data exist about the relevance of OCTs in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>OCT1 (<it>SLC22A1</it>) and OCT3 (<it>SLC22A3</it>) mRNA expression was measured in primary human HCC and corresponding non neoplastic tumor surrounding tissue (TST) by real time PCR (n = 53). Protein expression was determined by western blot analysis and immunofluorescence. Data were correlated with the clinicopathological parameters of HCCs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Real time PCR showed a downregulation of <it>SLC22A1 </it>and <it>SLC22A3 </it>in HCC compared to TST (p ≤ 0.001). A low <it>SLC22A1 </it>expression was associated with a worse patient survival (p < 0.05). Downregulation was significantly associated with advanced HCC stages, indicated by a higher number of T3 tumors (p = 0.025) with a larger tumor diameter (p = 0.035), a worse differentiation (p = 0.001) and higher AFP-levels (p = 0.019). In accordance, <it>SLC22A1 </it>was less frequently downregulated in tumors with lower stages who underwent transarterial chemoembolization (p < 0.001) and liver transplantation (p = 0.001). Tumors with a low <it>SLC22A1 </it>expression (< median) showed a higher <it>SLC22A3 </it>expression compared to HCC with high <it>SLC22A1 </it>expression (p < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in tumor characteristics according to the level of the <it>SLC22A3 </it>expression.</p> <p>In the western blot analysis we found a different protein expression pattern in tumor samples with a more diffuse staining in the immunofluorescence suggesting that especially OCT1 is not functional in advanced HCC.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The downregulation of OCT1 is associated with tumor progression and a worse patient survival.</p

Emergence of Respiratory Streptococcus agalactiae Isolates in Cystic Fibrosis Patients

Streptococcus agalactiae is a well-known pathogen for neonates and immunocompromized adults. Beyond the neonatal period, S. agalactiae is rarely found in the respiratory tract. During 2002–2008 we noticed S. agalactiae in respiratory secretions of 30/185 (16%) of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. The median age of these patients was 3–6 years older than the median age CF patients not harboring S. agalactiae. To analyze, if the S. agalactiae isolates from CF patients were clonal, further characterization of the strains was achieved by capsular serotyping, surface protein determination and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). We found a variety of sequence types (ST) among the isolates, which did not substantially differ from the MLST patterns of colonizing strains from Germany. However serotype III, which is often seen in colonizing strains and invasive infections was rare among CF patients. The emergence of S. agalactiae in the respiratory tract of CF patients may represent the adaptation to a novel host environment, supported by the altered surfactant composition in older CF patients

Labour intensity of guidelines may have a greater effect on adherence than GPs' workload

Background: Physicians' heavy workload is often thought to jeopardise the quality of care and to be a barrier to improving quality. The relationship between these has, however, rarely been investigated. In this study quality of care is defined as care 'in accordance with professional guidelines'. In this study we investigated whether GPs with a higher workload adhere less to guidelines than those with a lower workload and whether guideline recommendations that require a greater time investment are less adhered to than those that can save time. Methods: Data were used from the Second Dutch National survey of General Practice (DNSGP- 2). This nationwide study was carried out between April 2000 and January 2002. A multilevel logistic-regression analysis was conducted of 170,677 decisions made by GPs, referring to 41 Guideline Adherence Indicators (GAIs), which were derived from 32 different guidelines. Data were used from 130 GPs, working in 83 practices with 98,577 patients. GP-characteristics as well as guideline characteristics were used as independent variables. Measures include workload (number of contacts), hours spent on continuing medical education, satisfaction with available time, practice characteristics and patient characteristics. Outcome measure is an indicator score, which is 1 when a decision is in accordance with professional guidelines or 0 when the decision deviates from guidelines. Results: On average, 66% of the decisions GPs made were in accordance with guidelines. No relationship was found between the objective workload of GPs and their adherence to guidelines. Subjective workload (measured on a five point scale) was negatively related to guideline adherence (OR = 0.95). After controlling for all other variables, the variation between GPs in adherence to guideline recommendations showed a range of less than 10%. 84% of the variation in guideline adherence was located at the GAI-level. Which means that the differences in adherence levels between guidelines are much larger than differences between GPs. Guideline recommendations that require an extra time investment during the same consultation are significantly less adhered to: (OR = 0.46), while those that can save time have much higher adherence levels: OR = 1.55). Recommendations that reduce the likelihood of a follow-up consultation for the same problem are also more often adhered to compared to those that have no influence on this (OR = 3.13). Conclusion: No significant relationship was found between the objective workload of GPs and adherence to guidelines. However, guideline recommendations that require an extra time investment are significantly less well adhered to while those that can save time are significantly more often adhered to.

Uterine Rupture by Intended Mode of Delivery in the UK: A National Case-Control Study

A case-control study using UK data estimates the risk of uterine rupture in subsequent deliveries amongst women who have had a previous caesarean section

Bottom up ethics - neuroenhancement in education and employment

Neuroenhancement involves the use of neurotechnologies to improve cognitive, affective or behavioural functioning, where these are not judged to be clinically impaired. Questions about enhancement have become one of the key topics of neuroethics over the past decade. The current study draws on in-depth public engagement activities in ten European countries giving a bottom-up perspective on the ethics and desirability of enhancement. This informed the design of an online contrastive vignette experiment that was administered to representative samples of 1000 respondents in the ten countries and the United States. The experiment investigated how the gender of the protagonist, his or her level of performance, the efficacy of the enhancer and the mode of enhancement affected support for neuroenhancement in both educational and employment contexts. Of these, higher efficacy and lower performance were found to increase willingness to support enhancement. A series of commonly articulated claims about the individual and societal dimensions of neuroenhancement were derived from the public engagement activities. Underlying these claims, multivariate analysis identified two social values. The Societal/Protective highlights counter normative consequences and opposes the use enhancers. The Individual/Proactionary highlights opportunities and supports use. For most respondents these values are not mutually exclusive. This suggests that for many neuroenhancement is viewed simultaneously as a source of both promise and concern