In Defense of Unanimous Jury Verdicts: Communication, Mistrials, and Sincerity

It is a widely held belief among legal theorists that the requirement of unanimous jury verdicts in criminal trials reduces the likelihood of convicting an innocent defendant. This belief is, to a large extent, dependent upon the assumption that all jurors will vote sincerely based on their own impression of the trial evidence. Recent literature, however, has drawn this assumption into question, and simple models of jury procedure have been constructed in which, except under very strict conditions, it is never a Nash equilibrium for all jurors to vote sincerely. Moreover, Nash equilibrium behavior in these models leads to higher probabilities of both convicting an innocent defendant and acquitting a guilty defendant under unanimity rule than under a wide variety of alternative voting rules, including simple majority rule. The present paper extends these models by adding minimal enhancements that we argue bring the existing models closer to actual jury procedures. In particular, we separately analyze the implications of (1) incorporating the possibility of mistrial and (2) allowing limited communication among jurors. Under each of these enhancements, we identify general conditions under which sincere voting is, in fact, a Nash equilibrium. We further demonstrate that under such sincere voting equilibria, unanimous jury verdicts perform better than any alternative voting rule in terms of minimizing probability of trial error and maximizing expected utility

On the APM power spectrum and the CMB anisotropy: Evidence for a phase transition during inflation?

Adams et al. (1997b) have noted that according to our current understanding of the unification of fundamental interactions, there should have been phase transitions associated with spontaneous symmetry breaking {\em during} the inflationary era. This may have resulted in the breaking of scale-invariance of the primordial density perturbation for brief periods. A possible such feature was identified in the power spectrum of galaxy clustering in the APM survey at the scale $k \sim 0.1 h$ Mpc^{-1} and it was shown that the secondary acoustic peaks in the power spectrum of the CMB anisotropy should consequently be suppressed. We demonstrate that this prediction is confirmed by the recent Boomerang and Maxima observations, which favour a step-like spectral feature in the range $k \sim (0.06-0.6)h$ Mpc^{-1}, independently of the similar previous indication from the APM data. Such a spectral break enables an excellent fit to both APM and CMB data with a baryon density consistent with the BBN value. It also allows the possibility of a matter-dominated universe with zero cosmological constant, which we show can now account for even the evolution of the abundance of rich clusters.Comment: 11 pages (LaTeX, mn.sty) incl. 9 eps figs; small changes to match version accepted for publication in MNRA

Multi-Jet Event Rates in Deep Inelastic Scattering and Determination of the Strong Coupling Constant

Jet event rates in deep inelastic ep scattering at HERA are investigated applying the modified JADE jet algorithm. The analysis uses data taken with the H1 detector in 1994 and 1995. The data are corrected for detector and hadronization effects and then compared with perturbative QCD predictions using next-to-leading order calculations. The strong coupling constant alpha_S(M_Z^2) is determined evaluating the jet event rates. Values of alpha_S(Q^2) are extracted in four different bins of the negative squared momentum transfer~\qq in the range from 40 GeV2 to 4000 GeV2. A combined fit of the renormalization group equation to these several alpha_S(Q^2) values results in alpha_S(M_Z^2) = 0.117+-0.003(stat)+0.009-0.013(syst)+0.006(jet algorithm).Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, this version to appear in Eur. Phys. J.; it replaces first posted hep-ex/9807019 which had incorrect figure 4

2023 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes.

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Forward pi^0 Production and Associated Transverse Energy Flow in Deep-Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Deep-inelastic positron-proton interactions at low values of Bjorken-x down to x \approx 4.10^-5 which give rise to high transverse momentum pi^0 mesons are studied with the H1 experiment at HERA. The inclusive cross section for pi^0 mesons produced at small angles with respect to the proton remnant (the forward region) is presented as a function of the transverse momentum and energy of the pi^0 and of the four-momentum transfer Q^2 and Bjorken-x. Measurements are also presented of the transverse energy flow in events containing a forward pi^0 meson. Hadronic final state calculations based on QCD models implementing different parton evolution schemes are confronted with the data.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures and 3 table

Measurement of Leading Proton and Neutron Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Deep--inelastic scattering events with a leading baryon have been detected by the H1 experiment at HERA using a forward proton spectrometer and a forward neutron calorimeter. Semi--inclusive cross sections have been measured in the kinematic region 2 <= Q^2 <= 50 GeV^2, 6.10^-5 <= x <= 6.10^-3 and baryon p_T <= MeV, for events with a final state proton with energy 580 <= E' <= 740 GeV, or a neutron with energy E' >= 160 GeV. The measurements are used to test production models and factorization hypotheses. A Regge model of leading baryon production which consists of pion, pomeron and secondary reggeon exchanges gives an acceptable description of both semi-inclusive cross sections in the region 0.7 <= E'/E_p <= 0.9, where E_p is the proton beam energy. The leading neutron data are used to estimate for the first time the structure function of the pion at small Bjorken--x.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Eur. Phys.

Estimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of establishing additional endovascular Thrombectomy stroke Centres in England::a discrete event simulation

Background We have previously modelled that the optimal number of comprehensive stroke centres (CSC) providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in England would be 30 (net 6 new centres). We now estimate the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of increasing the number of centres from 24 to 30. Methods We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) to estimate the effectiveness and lifetime cost-effectiveness (from a payer perspective) using 1 year’s incidence of stroke in England. 2000 iterations of the simulation were performed comparing baseline 24 centres to 30. Results Of 80,800 patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke/year, 21,740 would be affected by the service reconfiguration. The median time to treatment for eligible early presenters (< 270 min since onset) would reduce from 195 (IQR 155–249) to 165 (IQR 105–224) minutes. Our model predicts reconfiguration would mean an additional 33 independent patients (modified Rankin scale [mRS] 0–1) and 30 fewer dependent/dead patients (mRS 3–6) per year. The net addition of 6 centres generates 190 QALYs (95%CI − 6 to 399) and results in net savings to the healthcare system of £1,864,000/year (95% CI -1,204,000 to £5,017,000). The estimated budget impact was a saving of £980,000 in year 1 and £7.07 million in years 2 to 5. Conclusion Changes in acute stroke service configuration will produce clinical and cost benefits when the time taken for patients to receive treatment is reduced. Benefits are highly likely to be cost saving over 5 years before any capital investment above £8 million is required

A database of marine phytoplankton abundance, biomass and species composition in Australian waters

There have been many individual phytoplankton datasets collected across Australia since the mid 1900s, but most are unavailable to the research community. We have searched archives, contacted researchers, and scanned the primary and grey literature to collate 3,621,847 records of marine phytoplankton species from Australian waters from 1844 to the present. Many of these are small datasets collected for local questions, but combined they provide over 170 years of data on phytoplankton communities in Australian waters. Units and taxonomy have been standardised, obviously erroneous data removed, and all metadata included. We have lodged this dataset with the Australian Ocean Data Network (http://portal.aodn.org.au/) allowing public access. The Australian Phytoplankton Database will be invaluable for global change studies, as it allows analysis of ecological indicators of climate change and eutrophication (e.g., changes in distribution; diatom:dinoflagellate ratios). In addition, the standardised conversion of abundance records to biomass provides modellers with quantifiable data to initialise and validate ecosystem models of lower marine trophic levels

Jets and energy flow in photon-proton collisions at HERA

Properties of the hadronic final state in photoproduction events with large transverse energy are studied at the electron-proton collider HERA. Distributions of the transverse energy, jets and underlying event energy are compared to \overline{p}p data and QCD calculations. The comparisons show that the \gamma p events can be consistently described by QCD models including -- in addition to the primary hard scattering process -- interactions between the two beam remnants. The differential jet cross sections d\sigma/dE_T^{jet} and d\sigma/d\eta^{jet} are measured