Prior Design for Dependent Dirichlet Processes: An Application to Marathon Modeling

This paper presents a novel application of Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) for marathon data modeling. We make use of two well-known BNP priors, the single-p dependent Dirichlet process and the hierarchical Dirichlet process, in order to address two different problems. First, we study the impact of age, gender and environment on the runners’ performance. We derive a fair grading method that allows direct comparison of runners regardless of their age and gender. Unlike current grading systems, our approach is based not only on top world records, but on the performances of all runners. The presented methodology for comparison of densities can be adopted in many other applications straightforwardly, providing an interesting perspective to build dependent Dirichlet processes. Second, we analyze the running patterns of the marathoners in time, obtaining information that can be valuable for training purposes. We also show that these running patterns can be used to predict finishing time given intermediate interval measurements. We apply our models to New York City, Boston and London marathons

Compressibility and structural stability of ultra-incompressible bimetallic interstitial carbides and nitrides

We have investigated by means of high-pressure x-ray diffraction the structural stability of Pd2Mo3N, Ni2Mo3C0.52N0.48, Co3Mo3C0.62N0.38, and Fe3Mo3C. We have found that they remain stable in their ambient-pressure cubic phase at least up to 48 GPa. All of them have a bulk modulus larger than 330 GPa, being the least compressible material Fe3Mo3C, B0 = 374(3) GPa. In addition, apparently a reduction of compressibility is detected as the carbon content increased. The equation of state for each material is determined. A comparison with other refractory materials indicates that interstitial nitrides and carbides behave as ultra-incompressible materials.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Decontamination of Diesel particles from air by using the Counterfog (R) system

The existence of particles with diameter under 10m in air is strongly correlated with respiratory diseases. These particles are profusely produced by heating systems, traffic, and Diesel engines creating a serious problem to modern cities. Natural mechanisms removing particles from the atmosphere are too slow to deal with the huge amount of particles daily released by human activity. The objective of this work is to measure the effectiveness of a new technology called Counterfog (R) to eliminate airborne particles. The results show that Counterfog (R) is able to wash out PM10, PM5, and PM2.5 Diesel-generated airborne particles quite efficiently.This work has been funded by the FP7-SEC-2012-1 program of the EU Commission under grant number 312804

Optimal interpolation of satellite and ground data for irradiance nowcasting at city scales

We use a Bayesian method, optimal interpolation, to improve satellite derived irradiance estimates at city-scales using ground sensor data. Optimal interpolation requires error covariances in the satellite estimates and ground data, which define how information from the sensor locations is distributed across a large area. We describe three methods to choose such covariances, including a covariance parameterization that depends on the relative cloudiness between locations. Results are computed with ground data from 22 sensors over a 75×80 km area centered on Tucson, AZ, using two satellite derived irradiance models. The improvements in standard error metrics for both satellite models indicate that our approach is applicable to additional satellite derived irradiance models. We also show that optimal interpolation can nearly eliminate mean bias error and improve the root mean squared error by 50%

An in-depth view of the microscopic dynamics of Ising spin glasses at fixed temperature

Using the dedicated computer Janus, we follow the nonequilibrium dynamics of the Ising spin glass in three dimensions for eleven orders of magnitude. The use of integral estimators for the coherence and correlation lengths allows us to study dynamic heterogeneities and the presence of a replicon mode and to obtain safe bounds on the Edwards-Anderson order parameter below the critical temperature. We obtain good agreement with experimental determinations of the temperature-dependent decay exponents for the thermoremanent magnetization. This magnitude is observed to scale with the much harder to measure coherence length, a potentially useful result for experimentalists. The exponents for energy relaxation display a linear dependence on temperature and reasonable extrapolations to the critical point. We conclude examining the time growth of the coherence length, with a comparison of critical and activated dynamics.Comment: 38 pages, 26 figure

Novel efficient genome-wide SNP panels for the conservation of the highly endangered Iberian lynx

Background: The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) has been acknowledged as the most endangered felid species in the world. An intense contraction and fragmentation during the twentieth century left less than 100 individuals split in two isolated and genetically eroded populations by 2002. Genetic monitoring and management so far have been based on 36 STRs, but their limited variability and the more complex situation of current populations demand more efficient molecular markers. The recent characterization of the Iberian lynx genome identified more than 1.6 million SNPs, of which 1536 were selected and genotyped in an extended Iberian lynx sample. Methods: We validated 1492 SNPs and analysed their heterozygosity, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and linkage disequilibrium. We then selected a panel of 343 minimally linked autosomal SNPs from which we extracted subsets optimized for four different typical tasks in conservation applications: individual identification, parentage assignment, relatedness estimation, and admixture classification, and compared their power to currently used STR panels. Results: We ascribed 21 SNPs to chromosome X based on their segregation patterns, and identified one additional marker that showed significant differentiation between sexes. For all applications considered, panels of autosomal SNPs showed higher power than the currently used STR set with only a very modest increase in the number of markers. Conclusions: These novel panels of highly informative genome-wide SNPs provide more powerful, efficient, and flexible tools for the genetic management and non-invasive monitoring of Iberian lynx populations. This example highlights an important outcome of whole-genome studies in genetically threatened species

Observational constraints to boxy/peanut bulge formation time

Boxy/peanut bulges are considered to be part of the same stellar structure as bars and both could be linked through the buckling instability. The Milky Way is our closest example. The goal of this letter is determining if the mass assembly of the different components leaves an imprint in their stellar populations allowing to estimate the time of bar formation and its evolution. To this aim we use integral field spectroscopy to derive the stellar age distributions, SADs, along the bar and disc of NGC 6032. The analysis shows clearly different SADs for the different bar areas. There is an underlying old (>=12 Gyr) stellar population for the whole galaxy. The bulge shows star formation happening at all times. The inner bar structure shows stars of ages older than 6 Gyrs with a deficit of younger populations. The outer bar region presents a SAD similar to that of the disc. To interpret our results, we use a generic numerical simulation of a barred galaxy. Thus, we constrain, for the first time, the epoch of bar formation, the buckling instability period and the posterior growth from disc material. We establish that the bar of NGC 6032 is old, formed around 10 Gyr ago while the buckling phase possibly happened around 8 Gyr ago. All these results point towards bars being long-lasting even in the presence of gas.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter