Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe by using the longest streamflow records

This study compiles a new dataset, consisting of the longest available flow series from across Europe, and uses it to study the spatial and temporal clustering of flood events across the continent. Hydrological series at 102 gauging stations were collected from 25 European countries. Five geographically distinct large-scale homogeneous regions are identified: (i) an Atlantic region, (ii) a Continental region, (iii) a Scandinavian region, (iv) an Alpine region, and (v) a Mediterranean region. The months with a higher likelihood of flooding were identified in each region. The analysis of the clustering of annual counts of floods revealed an over-dispersion in the Atlantic and Continental regions, forming flood-rich and flood-poor periods, as well as an under-dispersion in the Scandinavian region that points to a regular pattern of flood occurrences at the inter-annual scale. The detection of trends in flood series is attempted by basing it on the identified regions, interpreting the results at a regional scale and for various time periods: 1900-1999; 1920-1999; 1939-1998 and 1956-1995. The results indicate that a decreasing trend in the magnitude of floods was observed mainly in the Continental region in the period 1920-1999 with 22% of the catchments revealing such a trend, as well as a decreasing trend in the timing of floods in the Alpine region in the period 1900-1999 with 75% of the catchments revealing this trend. A mixed pattern of changes in the frequency of floods over a threshold and few significant changes in the timing of floods were detected

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results\u2014arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far\u2014suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management

Two years survival rate of class II composite resin restorations prepared by ART with and without a chemomechanical caries removal gel in primary molars

The aim was to test the null hypotheses that there is no difference: (1) in carious lesion development at the restoration margin between class II composite resin restorations in primary molars produced through the atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) with and without a chemomechanical caries removal gel and (2) in the survival rate of class II composite resin restorations between two treatment groups after 2 years. Three hundred twenty-seven children with 568 class II cavitated lesions were included in a parallel mouth study design. Four operators placed resin composite (Filtek Z 250) restorations bonded with a self-etch adhesive (Adper prompt L pop). Two independent examiners evaluated the restorations after 0.5, 1, and 2 years using the modified Ryge criteria. The Kaplan–Meier survival method was applied to estimate survival percentages. A high proportion of restorations were lost during the study period. Therefore, the first hypothesis could not be tested. No statistically significant difference was observed between the cumulative survival percentages of restorations produced by the two treatment approaches over the 2-year period (ART, 54.1 ± 3.4%; ART with Carisolv™, 46.0 ± 3.4%). This hypothesis was accepted. ART with chemomechanical gel might not provide an added benefit increasing the survival percentages of ART class II composite resin restorations in primary teeth

Running GAGs: myxoid matrix in tumor pathology revisited: What’s in it for the pathologist?

Ever since Virchow introduced the entity myxoma, abundant myxoid extracellular matrix (ECM) has been recognized in various reactive and neoplastic lesions. Nowadays, the term “myxoid” is commonly used in daily pathological practice. But what do today’s pathologists mean by it, and what does the myxoid ECM tell the pathologist? What is known about the exact composition and function of the myxoid ECM 150 years after Virchow? Here, we give an overview of the composition and constituents of the myxoid ECM as known so far and demonstrate the heterogeneity of the myxoid ECM among different tumors. We discuss the possible role of the predominant constituents of the myxoid ECM and attempt to relate them to differences in clinical behavior. Finally, we will speculate on the potential relevance of this knowledge in daily pathological practice

Global expansion of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage 4 shaped by colonial migration and local adaptation

On the basis of population genomic and phylogeographic analyses of 1669 Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage 4 (L4) genomes, we find that dispersal of L4 has been completely dominated by historical migrations out of Europe. We demonstrate an intimate temporal relationship between European colonial expansion into Africa and the Americas and the spread of L4 tuberculosis (TB). Markedly, in the age of antibiotics, mutations conferring antimicrobial resistance overwhelmingly emerged locally (at the level of nations), with minimal cross-border transmission of resistance. The latter finding was found to reflect the relatively recent emergence of these mutations, as a similar degree of local restriction was observed for susceptible variants emerging on comparable time scales. The restricted international transmission of drug-resistant TB suggests that containment efforts at the level of individual countries could be successful

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. Methods We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. Findings We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5–14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15–49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50–69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5–14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15–49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50–69 years, and a 3·29% (–5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (–713 to 2180) fewer deaths. Interpretation Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups

Online Filter Parameters Estimation in a Double Conversion UPS System for Real-Time Model Predictive Control Performance Optimization

Uninterruptible Power Supplies (UPS) represent the key technology to continuously feed and protect a wide range of critical applications in electric power systems. Due to their continuous operation, UPS components degrade over time, including their filtering elements, leading to decreased filtering capabilities. With these deviations, UPS performance is typically reduced. Moreover, if filter parameter deviations are not considered in the control system, performance degradation can be further increased and the critical load can be seriously compromised. This is especially important with Model Predictive Control (MPC), which heavily relies on system parameters accuracy. Thus, control performance optimization using estimated filter parameters in UPS systems can be extremely important. Nevertheless, this has not yet been covered in the literature for UPS systems. In light of these facts, this paper proposes a new mechanism that, by using online estimated filter parameters, optimizes the performance of an MPC strategy, in a UPS system. In the scope of this optimization mechanism, an estimation method that enables parameter identification and control optimization not only in balanced but also in highly unbalanced filter conditions (rarely studied in the literature) is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed estimators and the effectiveness of the proposed control performance optimization mechanism. Under severe filter parameter variations, the proposed performance optimization scheme enabled to reduce the degradation (caused by filter variation) of the grid current and load voltage THD by 29.41% and 91.60%, respectively. Furthermore, the degradation of the RMS load voltage value was also significantly reduced by 97.89

Experimental and theoretical identification of adenine monolayers on Ag-terminated Si(111)

We discuss the formation of ordered adenine monolayers on a Ag-Si (111)root 3 x root 3R30 degrees surface held at room temperature. Adenine forms a hexagonal network, which is stabilized by hydrogen bonding. By comparing the ordering observed using scanning tunneling microscopy with molecular superstructures calculated using ab initio density functional theory, we suggest that adenine forms an array of irregular hexagons through the combination of three distinct hydrogen-bonded adenine dimers. The dimensions of the ordered monolayer are commensurate with the surface with root 3 x root 7 periodicity relative to the Ag-Si (111) root 3 x root 3R30 degrees reconstruction, in agreement with calculated molecular dimensions. An analysis of double-domain regions leads us to conclude that there are two domains with different chiralities

In vivo assessment of the human sperm acrosome reaction and the expression of glycodelin-A in human endometrium after levonorgestrel-emergency contraceptive pill administration

BACKGROUND: The objectives were firstly to assess acrosome reaction (AR) status of spermatozoa following uterine flushing, secondly to measure levonorgestrel (LNG) levels in serum and in uterine flushing fluid and finally to measure endometrial glycodelin-A expression after administration of LNG as a form of emergency contraception (EC). METHODS: Forty-eight experiments were conducted on 15 regularly menstruating women. Four groups were formed based on different intercourse to treatment interval and treatment to recovery of spermatozoa and the biopsies. RESULTS: Twenty-four and forty-eight hours after treatment, there were 14.5 +/- 3.9 x 106 and 17.3 +/- 6.8 x 106 sperm recovered from the uterus, respectively. There were no differences between the AR rate and the endometrial glycodelin-A staining intensity in an LNG or placebo treated cycles. The LNG in uterine flushing medium represented 1.38% of the values observed in serum 24 h after the LNG intake. CONCLUSIONS: Twenty-four and forty-eight hours after administration of EC, neither the proportion of AR sperm, nor the glycodelin-A level was influenced by 1.5 mg of LNG. LNG did not impair the cervical mucus either because viable spermatozoa were found in the genital tract 36-60 h after coitus and 24-48 h after LNG intake. The mechanism of action of LNG as EC remains unknown.2282190219