Estimación de valores diarios de precipitación y temperaturas en la Cuenca del Plata: reducción de escala estadística

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008.[ES]La Cuenca del Plata, ubicada en el sur de Sudamérica, es la tercera cuenca del mundo por su magnitud. La economía de los países que la conforman depende de la agricultura y la producción hidroeléctrica, sectores que son fuertemente afectados por la variabilidad climática. De manera que es necesario disponer de información climática en escalas que van de la local a la regional a fin de realizar proyecciones a mediano y a largo plazo. En este contexto, en este trabajo se estimaron valores diarios de temperaturas máxima y mínima y la precipitación a escala local en la región de interés, a partir de la información de la circulación atmosférica de gran escala. Para ello se utilizó un método de reducción de escala estadística en dos pasos a fin de estimar las variables climáticas de alta resolución. Los resultados de la validación muestran que la técnica de reducción de escala utilizada tiene un buen desempeño en la región de estudio en escala temporal estacional y anual. Asimismo, el método muestra una capacidad apropiada para reproducir la variabilidad interanual de las variables analizadas.[EN]La Plata Basin, located in southern South America, is the third basin worldwide considering its extent. The region economic wealth depends on agriculture and hydropower production. These sectors are strongly affected by climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to have climatic information at local to regional scales in order to prospect possible climate evolution at midand long- term. In this context, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation values were estimated at the local scale using information from large-scale circulation information. For this purpose, a two step statistical downscaling method was used to estimate high-resolution variables. Validation results as a whole show that the downscaling performance is good enough to estimate seasonal and annual mean values and temporal variability of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures.Este trabajo fue solventado por los proyectos de la Universidad de Buenos Aires X135, X170 y X605, BID 1728/OC-AR-PICT 38273, CLARIS Project (European Commission Project 001454) y CLARIS LPB

Puumala hantavirus Infection in Humans and in the Reservoir Host, Ardennes Region, France

We compared the occurrence of nephropathia epidemica cases, over a multi-annual population cycle, in northeastern France with the hantavirus serology for bank voles captured in the same area. We discuss hypotheses to explain the pattern of infection in both humans and rodents and their synchrony

Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin –Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.Published211-2304A. Clima e OceaniJCR Journalrestricte

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

Burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe: forecasting incidence and mortality between 2019 and 2050

Background: Anticipating the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage is crucial for proactive management and building resilience against future health challenges. Prior forecasts are based on population demography and to a lesser extent epidemiological trends. This study aims to utilise selected modifiable risk factors and socio-demographic indicators to forecast the incidence and mortality of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe between 2019 and 2050. Methods: Three intracerebral haemorrhage risk factors identified in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD 2019)—high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index—were utilised to predict the risk-attributable fractions between 2019 and 2050. Disease burden not attributable to these risk factors was then forecasted using time series models (autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]), incorporating the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as an external predictor. The optimal parameters of ARIMA models were selected for each age-sex-country group based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Different health scenarios were constructed by extending the past 85th and 15th percentiles of annualised rates of change in risk factors and SDI across all location-years, stratified by age and sex groups. A decomposition analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of population size, age composition, and intracerebral haemorrhage risk on the projected changes. Findings: Compared with observed figures in 2019, our analysis predicts an increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe in 2050, with a marginal rise of 0.6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], −7.4% to 9.6%) in incident cases and an 8.9% (−2.8% to 23.6%) increase in mortality, reaching 141.2 (120.6–166.5) thousand and 144.2 (122.9–172.2) thousand respectively. These projections may fluctuate depending on trajectories of the risk factors and SDI; worsened trends could result in increases of 16.7% (8.7%–25.3%) in incidence and 31.2% (17.7%–48%) in mortality, while better trajectories may lead to a 10% (16.4%–2.3%) decrease in intracerebral haemorrhage cases with stabilised mortality. Individuals aged ≥80 years are expected to contribute significantly to the burden, comprising 62.7% of the cases in 2050, up from 40% in 2019, and 72.5% of deaths, up from 50.5%. Country-wide variations were noted in the projected changes, with decreases in the standardised rates across all nations but varying crude rates. The largest relative reductions in counts for both incidence and mortality are expected in Latvia, Bulgaria, and Hungary—ranging from −38.2% to −32.4% and −37.3% to −30.2% respectively. In contrast, the greatest increases for both measures were forecasted in Ireland (45.7% and 74.4%), Luxembourg (45% and 70.7%), and Cyprus (44.5% and 74.2%). The modelled increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage could largely be attributed to population ageing. Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive forecast of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe until 2050, presenting different trajectories. The potential increase in the number of people experiencing and dying from intracerebral haemorrhage could have profound implications for both caregiving responsibilities and associated costs. However, forecasts were divergent between different scenarios and among EU countries, signalling the pivotal role of public health initiatives in steering the trajectories. Funding: TheEuropean Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No.754517. TheNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants forApplied Research (NIHR202339)

Terrestrial behavior in titi monkeys (Callicebus, Cheracebus, and Plecturocebus) : potential correlates, patterns, and differences between genera

For arboreal primates, ground use may increase dispersal opportunities, tolerance to habitat change, access to ground-based resources, and resilience to human disturbances, and so has conservation implications. We collated published and unpublished data from 86 studies across 65 localities to assess titi monkey (Callicebinae) terrestriality. We examined whether the frequency of terrestrial activity correlated with study duration (a proxy for sampling effort), rainfall level (a proxy for food availability seasonality), and forest height (a proxy for vertical niche dimension). Terrestrial activity was recorded frequently for Callicebus and Plecturocebus spp., but rarely for Cheracebus spp. Terrestrial resting, anti-predator behavior, geophagy, and playing frequencies in Callicebus and Plecturocebus spp., but feeding and moving differed. Callicebus spp. often ate or searched for new leaves terrestrially. Plecturocebus spp. descended primarily to ingest terrestrial invertebrates and soil. Study duration correlated positively and rainfall level negatively with terrestrial activity. Though differences in sampling effort and methods limited comparisons and interpretation, overall, titi monkeys commonly engaged in a variety of terrestrial activities. Terrestrial behavior in Callicebus and Plecturocebus capacities may bolster resistance to habitat fragmentation. However, it is uncertain if the low frequency of terrestriality recorded for Cheracebus spp. is a genus-specific trait associated with a more basal phylogenetic position, or because studies of this genus occurred in pristine habitats. Observations of terrestrial behavior increased with increasing sampling effort and decreasing food availability. Overall, we found a high frequency of terrestrial behavior in titi monkeys, unlike that observed in other pitheciids

Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico, based on modern and fossil pollen data

International audienceA modem pollen rain study was performed in a 300 km-long altitudinal transect (similar to 28 degrees N latitude) from 300 to 2300 m elevation. The higher elevation modem communities: epithermal oak-pines, pine-oak forest, pine forest, and mixed conifer forest were easy to distinguish from their pollen content. In contrast, lower elevation subtropical communities: thornscrub and tropical deciduous forest were difficult to separate, because they share many pollen taxa. Nevertheless we identify high frequencies of Bursera laxiflora as an important component of the tropical deciduous forest. Additionally, fossil pollen was analyzed at three sites located between 1700 and 1950 m altitude at similar to 28 degrees latitude north in the Sierra Madre Occidental of northwestern Mexico. The sites were in pine-oak (Pinus-Quercus), pine, and mixed-conifer forests respectively. Shifts in the altitudinal distribution of vegetation belts were recorded for the last 12,849 cal yr BP, and climate changes were inferred. The lowest site (pine-oak forest) was surrounded by pine forest between 12,849 and 11,900 cal yr BP, suggesting a cold and relatively dry Younger Dryas period. The early Holocene was also cold but wetter, with mixed conifer forest with Abies (fir) growing at the same site, at 1700 m elevation, 300 m lower than today. After 9200 cal yr BP, a change to warmer/drier conditions caused fir migration to higher elevations and the expansion of Quercus at 1700 m. At 5600 cal yr BP Abies was growing above 1800 m and Picea (spruce) that is absent today, was recorded at 1950 m elevation. Fir and spruce disappeared from the 1950 m site and reached their present distribution (scattered, above 2000 m) after 1000 cal yr BP; we infer an episodic Holocene migration rate to higher elevations for Abies of 23.8 m/1000 cal yr and for Picea of 39.2 m/1000 cal yr. The late Holocene reflects frequent climate oscillations, with variations in the representation of forest trees. A tendency towards an openness of the forest is recorded for the last 2000 yrs, possibly reflecting human activities along with short-term climate change. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico - With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

International audienceNew palcovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (15002000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28 degrees N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinologia de la Cienega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetacion y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Pefialba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinologia de la Cienega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetacion y el clima, del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de M6xico, M6xico D.F.). An additional modem pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from and western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95-119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biontization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185-194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555-584) for a better representation of the modem vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modem pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3 degrees-6 degrees C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 degrees C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved