Towards an advanced observation system for the marine Arctic in the framework of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)

The Arctic marine climate system is changing rapidly, which is seen in the warming of the ocean and atmosphere, decline of sea ice cover, increase in river discharge, acidification of the ocean, and changes in marine ecosystems. Socio-economic activities in the coastal and marine Arctic are simultaneously changing. This calls for the establishment of a marine Arctic component of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (MA-PEEX). There is a need for more in situ observations on the marine atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean, but increasing the amount of such observations is a pronounced technological and logistical challenge. The SMEAR (Station for Measuring Ecosystem–Atmosphere Relations) concept can be applied in coastal and archipelago stations, but in the Arctic Ocean it will probably be more cost-effective to further develop a strongly distributed marine observation network based on autonomous buoys, moorings, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These have to be supported by research vessel and aircraft campaigns, as well as various coastal observations, including community-based ones. Major manned drifting stations may occasionally be comparable to terrestrial SMEAR flagship stations. To best utilize the observations, atmosphere–ocean reanalyses need to be further developed. To well integrate MA-PEEX with the existing terrestrial–atmospheric PEEX, focus is needed on the river discharge and associated fluxes, coastal processes, and atmospheric transports in and out of the marine Arctic. More observations and research are also needed on the specific socio-economic challenges and opportunities in the marine and coastal Arctic, and on their interaction with changes in the climate and environmental system. MA-PEEX will promote international collaboration; sustainable marine meteorological, sea ice, and oceanographic observations; advanced data management; and multidisciplinary research on the marine Arctic and its interaction with the Eurasian continent.</p

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Economy of the arctic "islands": The case of Nenets and Chukotka autonomous okrugs

The article discusses the economy of Arctic «islands». These territories of the Russian Arctic are unavailable by transport all the year round and have considerable specificity in comparison with the other regions of the Russian and North European Arctic. The authors consider the economy of Arctic «islands» on the example of the Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous Areas. Despite the significant similarity in the economic and social parameters, after careful study, two regions show considerable internal differences. In order to identify dissimilarity, in the comparative analysis, we use the theoretical idea of the Arctic economy as a unity of three sectors - the traditional one, corporate (market) one and transfer (state) one. Each sector has the key contradictions, structures and its trajectory of evolution. The comparison of traditional sectors reveals significant landscape diversity of Chukotka in comparison with the Nenets tundra. The corporate sector of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug economy is significantly younger than in Chukotka, due to the fact that oil and gas development is relatively new practice for the region. On the other hand, because of the mining development of Chukotka gold, which started in 1960-s, it can be considered as an old industrial region. The level of the profitability of gold production is significantly lower than of the Nenets oil production. Therefore, we propose to include the economy of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug to the rental model, and Chukotka economy to the transfer model. The difference of transfer sectors of two areas is the result of not only the difference in the power of the regional budgets, but also of the urban settlement structure which is centralized in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and polycentric in Chukotka. It means that the public health and culture in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug are dated generally for the capital of Naryan-Mar, and social facilities in Chukotka are significantly decentralized and concentrated in Okrug's and regional centres.Рассмотрены традиционный, корпоративный и трансфертный сектора российской Арктики. Сопоставлены экономические показатели Ненецкого и Чукотского автономных округов

Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Abstract Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change