Upper Limits from Counting Experiments with Multiple Pipelines

In counting experiments, one can set an upper limit on the rate of a Poisson process based on a count of the number of events observed due to the process. In some experiments, one makes several counts of the number of events, using different instruments, different event detection algorithms, or observations over multiple time intervals. We demonstrate how to generalize the classical frequentist upper limit calculation to the case where multiple counts of events are made over one or more time intervals using several (not necessarily independent) procedures. We show how different choices of the rank ordering of possible outcomes in the space of counts correspond to applying different levels of significance to the various measurements. We propose an ordering that is matched to the sensitivity of the different measurement procedures and show that in typical cases it gives stronger upper limits than other choices. As an example, we show how this method can be applied to searches for gravitational-wave bursts, where multiple burst-detection algorithms analyse the same data set, and demonstrate how a single combined upper limit can be set on the gravitational-wave burst rate.Comment: 26 pages (CQG style), 8 figures. Added study of robustness of limits

In and out of Madagascar : dispersal to peripheral islands, insular speciation and diversification of Indian Ocean daisy trees (Psiadia, Asteraceae)

This study was supported by the European Union’s HOTSPOTS Training Network (MEST-2005-020561)Madagascar is surrounded by archipelagos varying widely in origin, age and structure. Although small and geologically young, these archipelagos have accumulated disproportionate numbers of unique lineages in comparison to Madagascar, highlighting the role of waif-dispersal and rapid in situ diversification processes in generating endemic biodiversity. We reconstruct the evolutionary and biogeographical history of the genus Psiadia (Asteraceae), a plant genus with near equal numbers of species in Madagascar and surrounding islands. Analyzing patterns and processes of diversification, we explain species accumulation on peripheral islands and aim to offer new insights on the origin and potential causes for diversification in the Madagascar and Indian Ocean Islands biodiversity hotspot. Our results provide support for an African origin of the group, with strong support for non-monophyly. Colonization of the Mascarenes took place by two evolutionary distinct lineages from Madagascar, via two independent dispersal events, each unique for their spatial and temporal properties. Significant shifts in diversification rate followed regional expansion, resulting in co-occurring and phenotypically convergent species on high-elevation volcanic slopes. Like other endemic island lineages, Psiadia have been highly successful in dispersing to and radiating on isolated oceanic islands, typified by high habitat diversity and dynamic ecosystems fuelled by continued geological activity. Results stress the important biogeographical role for Rodrigues in serving as an outlying stepping stone from which regional colonization took place. We discuss how isolated volcanic islands contribute to regional diversity by generating substantial numbers of endemic species on short temporal scales. Factors pertaining to the mode and tempo of archipelago formation and its geographical isolation strongly govern evolutionary pathways available for species diversification, and the potential for successful diversification of dispersed lineages, therefore, appears highly dependent on the timing of arrival, as habitat and resource properties change dramatically over the course of oceanic island evolution.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Bayesian detection of unmodeled bursts of gravitational waves

The data analysis problem of coherently searching for unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts in the data generated by a global network of gravitational-wave observatories has been at the center of research for almost two decades. As data from these detectors is starting to be analyzed, a renewed interest in this problem has been sparked. A Bayesian approach to the problem of coherently searching for gravitational wave bursts with a network of ground-based interferometers is here presented. We demonstrate how to systematically incorporate prior information on the burst signal and its source into the analysis. This information may range from the very minimal, such as best-guess durations, bandwidths, or polarization content, to complete prior knowledge of the signal waveforms and the distribution of sources through spacetime. We show that this comprehensive Bayesian formulation contains several previously proposed detection statistics as special limiting cases, and demonstrate that it outperforms them.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, revisions based on referee comment

Random Walks for Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity

Random walk methods are used to calculate the moments of negative image equilibrium distributions in synaptic weight dynamics governed by spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP). The neural architecture of the model is based on the electrosensory lateral line lobe (ELL) of mormyrid electric fish, which forms a negative image of the reafferent signal from the fish's own electric discharge to optimize detection of sensory electric fields. Of particular behavioral importance to the fish is the variance of the equilibrium postsynaptic potential in the presence of noise, which is determined by the variance of the equilibrium weight distribution. Recurrence relations are derived for the moments of the equilibrium weight distribution, for arbitrary postsynaptic potential functions and arbitrary learning rules. For the case of homogeneous network parameters, explicit closed form solutions are developed for the covariances of the synaptic weight and postsynaptic potential distributions.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, 15 subfigures; uses revtex4, subfigure, amsmat

Passing through the bounce in the ekpyrotic models

By considering a simplified but exact model for realizing the ekpyrotic scenario, we clarify various assumptions that have been used in the literature. In particular, we discuss the new ekpyrotic prescription for passing the perturbations through the singularity which we show to provide a spectrum depending on a non physical normalization function. We also show that this prescription does not reproduce the exact result for a sharp transition. Then, more generally, we demonstrate that, in the only case where a bounce can be obtained in Einstein General Relativity without facing singularities and/or violation of the standard energy conditions, the bounce cannot be made arbitrarily short. This contrasts with the standard (inflationary) situation where the transition between two eras with different values of the equation of state can be considered as instantaneous. We then argue that the usually conserved quantities are not constant on a typical bounce time scale. Finally, we also examine the case of a test scalar field (or gravitational waves) where similar results are obtained. We conclude that the full dynamical equations of the underlying theory should be solved in a non singular case before any conclusion can be drawn.Comment: 17 pages, ReVTeX 4, 13 figures, minor corrections, conclusions unchange

An Infrared Coronagraphic Survey for Substellar Companions

We have used the F160W filter (1.4-1.8 um) and the coronagraph on the Near-InfraRed Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer (NICMOS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to survey 45 single stars with a median age of 0.15 Gyr, an average distance of 30 pc, and an average H-magnitude of 7 mag. For the median age we were capable of detecting a 30 M_Jup companion at separations between 15 and 200 AU. A 5 M_Jup object could have been detected at 30 AU around 36% of our primaries. For several of our targets that were less than 30 Myr old, the lower mass limit was as low as a Jupiter mass, well into the high mass planet region. Results of the entire survey include the proper motion verification of five low-mass stellar companions, two brown dwarfs (HR7329B and TWA5B) and one possible brown dwarf binary (Gl 577B/C).Comment: 11 figures, accepted by A

Stability of Negative Image Equilibria in Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity

We investigate the stability of negative image equilibria in mean synaptic weight dynamics governed by spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP). The neural architecture of the model is based on the electrosensory lateral line lobe (ELL) of mormyrid electric fish, which forms a negative image of the reafferent signal from the fish's own electric discharge to optimize detection of external electric fields. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for stability, for arbitrary postsynaptic potential functions and arbitrary learning rules. We then apply the general result to several examples of biological interest.Comment: 13 pages, revtex4; uses packages: graphicx, subfigure; 9 figures, 16 subfigure

Surgical resident experience with common bile duct exploration and assessment of performance and autonomy with formative feedback

Background Common bile duct exploration (CBDE) is safe and effective for managing choledocholithiasis, but most US general surgeons have limited experience with CBDE and are uncomfortable performing this procedure in practice. Surgical trainee exposure to CBDE is limited, and their learning curve for achieving autonomous, practice-ready performance has not been previously described. This study tests the hypothesis that receipt of one or more prior CBDE operative performance assessments, combined with formative feedback, is associated with greater resident operative performance and autonomy. Methods Resident and attending assessments of resident operative performance and autonomy were obtained for 189 laparoscopic or open CBDEs performed at 28 institutions. Performance and autonomy were graded along validated ordinal scales. Cases in which the resident had one or more prior CBDE case evaluations (n = 48) were compared with cases in which the resident had no prior evaluations (n = 141). Results Compared with cases in which the resident had no prior CBDE case evaluations, cases with a prior evaluation had greater proportions of practice-ready or exceptional performance ratings according to both residents (27% vs. 11%, p = .009) and attendings (58% vs. 19%, p < .001) and had greater proportions of passive help or supervision only autonomy ratings according to both residents (17% vs. 4%, p = .009) and attendings (69% vs. 32%, p < .01). Conclusions Residents with at least one prior CBDE evaluation and formative feedback demonstrated better operative performance and received greater autonomy than residents without prior evaluations, underscoring the propensity of feedback to help residents achieve autonomous, practice-ready performance for rare operations

Antioxidant Activity of Hawaiian Marine Algae

Marine algae are known to contain a wide variety of bioactive compounds, many of which have commercial applications in pharmaceutical, medical, cosmetic, nutraceutical, food and agricultural industries. Natural antioxidants, found in many algae, are important bioactive compounds that play an important role against various diseases and ageing processes through protection of cells from oxidative damage. In this respect, relatively little is known about the bioactivity of Hawaiian algae that could be a potential natural source of such antioxidants. The total antioxidant activity of organic extracts of 37 algal samples, comprising of 30 species of Hawaiian algae from 27 different genera was determined. The activity was determined by employing the FRAP (Ferric Reducing Antioxidant Power) assays. Of the algae tested, the extract of Turbinaria ornata was found to be the most active. Bioassay-guided fractionation of this extract led to the isolation of a variety of different carotenoids as the active principles. The major bioactive antioxidant compound was identified as the carotenoid fucoxanthin. These results show, for the first time, that numerous Hawaiian algae exhibit significant antioxidant activity, a property that could lead to their application in one of many useful healthcare or related products as well as in chemoprevention of a variety of diseases including cancer

Testing gravitational-wave searches with numerical relativity waveforms: Results from the first Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project

The Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project is a collaborative effort between members of the numerical relativity and gravitational-wave data analysis communities. The purpose of NINJA is to study the sensitivity of existing gravitational-wave search algorithms using numerically generated waveforms and to foster closer collaboration between the numerical relativity and data analysis communities. We describe the results of the first NINJA analysis which focused on gravitational waveforms from binary black hole coalescence. Ten numerical relativity groups contributed numerical data which were used to generate a set of gravitational-wave signals. These signals were injected into a simulated data set, designed to mimic the response of the Initial LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave detectors. Nine groups analysed this data using search and parameter-estimation pipelines. Matched filter algorithms, un-modelled-burst searches and Bayesian parameter-estimation and model-selection algorithms were applied to the data. We report the efficiency of these search methods in detecting the numerical waveforms and measuring their parameters. We describe preliminary comparisons between the different search methods and suggest improvements for future NINJA analyses.Comment: 56 pages, 25 figures; various clarifications; accepted to CQ