Canadian Chicken Industry: Consumer Preferences, Industry Structure and Producer Benefits from Investment in Research and Advertising

The Canadian chicken industry has operated under supply management since the mid-1970s. Canadian consumer preferences for chicken have grown dramatically since then possibly in response to concerns about health and the levels of fat and cholesterol in red meats. However Canadian consumers are also looking for convenience with their food purchases. Canadians are buying their chicken in frozen further processed forms, fresh by cut without skin and bone and in a variety of other different ways reflecting their unique willingness to pay for various attributes. There is also an increasing trend for retailers and processors to brand the fresh chicken product sold through grocery stores (for example, Maple Leaf Prime). The preferences Canadian consumer have for various chicken products, the prices they are comfortable paying and the strategies followed by processors/retailers can directly affect the outcomes of industry wide strategies such as investment in generic advertising and research or the impact of international market changes such as border closures. This research is an initial attempt to quantify Canadian consumer preferences – for fresh product by type – for product by level of processing – for chicken product by cut - for fresh chicken by brand - to examine the impact of substitutability on a variety of market shocks. The various different disaggregations of Canadian chicken consumption are used in a number of simulation models to illustrate how important preferences are to producer returns when there are market shocks. If Canadians found all chicken products available in the grocery store to be perfectly substitutable then previous policy analysis assuming chicken is one homogeneous product would be sufficient for industry policy analysis purposes. If Canadians view all the different chicken products as imperfectly substitutable and given that various chicken products are produced in relatively fixed proportions (white and dark meat, for example) further understanding of how consumers make their purchase decisions could enhance the industries ability to predict outcomes. For example, border closing to Canadian exports ( as a result of an Avian influenza outbreak, for example) would result in a significant increase in the dark meat products available for sale through Canadian grocery stores. The results presented in this research could provide a clue as to how much dark meat prices might decline while white meat prices might remain unaffected. The results reported suggest that at the consumer level, chicken fresh and frozen products are not perceived to be perfect substitutes, within a narrow category such as fresh chicken breasts, they are not perceived as even close substitutes, within the fresh category branded products such as those developed by Lilydale and Maple Leaf are not perceived as perfect substitutes. As well, an initial look at the demand for individual chicken products by household suggests that there is far from a common buying pattern across Canadian households, even within a single province. The results also suggest that health and convenience attributes are driving Canadian consumer preferences. Simulation results highlight the fact that pricing strategies followed by major processors/retailers within Canada can influence the returns to generic advertising and research. Further research could provide additional robust estimates of the chicken product substitutability existing in the Canadian market and an increased understanding of the market characteristics currently operating. The results presented here suggest that further work in this area is important for the chicken industry to pursue.consumer behaviour, chicken consumption, differentiated products, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, D12, Q11, Q18,

Galaxy Zoo: A correlation between coherence of galaxy spin chirality and star formation efficiency

We report on the finding of a correlation between galaxies' past star formation activity and the degree to which neighbouring galaxies rotation axes are aligned. This is obtained by cross-correlating star formation histories, derived with MOPED, and spin direction (chirality), as determined by the Galaxy Zoo project, for a sample of SDSS galaxies. Our findings suggest that spiral galaxies which formed the majority of their stars early (z > 2) tend to display coherent rotation over scales of ~10 Mpc/h. The correlation is weaker for galaxies with significant recent star formation. We find evidence for this alignment at more than the 5-sigma level, but no correlation with other galaxy stellar properties. This finding can be explained within the context of hierarchical tidal-torque theory if the SDSS galaxies harboring the majority of the old stellar population where formed in the past, in the same filament and at about the same time. Galaxies with significant recent star formation instead are in the field, thus influenced by the general tidal field that will align them in random directions or had a recent merger which would promote star formation, but deviate the spin direction.Comment: matches published version in MNRAS; only minor change

Thiopurine monotherapy is effective in ulcerative colitis but significantly less so in Crohn’s disease: long-term outcomes for 11 928 patients in the UK inflammatory bowel disease bioresource

Objective: Thiopurines are widely used as maintenance therapy in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) but the evidence base for their use is sparse and their role increasingly questioned. Using the largest series reported to date, we assessed the long-term effectiveness of thiopurines in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD), including their impact on need for surgery. Design: Outcomes were assessed in 11 928 patients (4968 UC, 6960 CD) in the UK IBD BioResource initiated on thiopurine monotherapy with the intention of maintaining medically induced remission. Effectiveness was assessed retrospectively using patient-level data and a definition that required avoidance of escalation to biological therapy or surgery while on thiopurines. Analyses included overall effectiveness, time-to-event analysis for treatment escalation and comparison of surgery rates in patients tolerant or intolerant of thiopurines. Results: Using 68 132 patient-years of exposure, thiopurine monotherapy appeared effective for the duration of treatment in 2617/4968 (52.7%) patients with UC compared with 2378/6960 (34.2%) patients with CD (p<0.0001). This difference was corroborated in a multivariable analysis: after adjusting for variables including treatment era, thiopurine monotherapy was less effective in CD than UC (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.51, p<0.0001). Thiopurine intolerance was associated with increased risk of surgery in UC (HR 2.44, p<0.0001); with a more modest impact on need for surgery in CD (HR=1.23, p=0.0015). Conclusion: Thiopurine monotherapy is an effective long-term treatment for UC but significantly less effective in CD

Cosmic CARNage I: on the calibration of galaxy formation models

We present a comparison of nine galaxy formation models, eight semi-analytical, and one halo occupation distribution model, run on the same underlying cold dark matter simulation (cosmological box of comoving width 125h−1 Mpc, with a dark-matter particle mass of 1.24 × 109h−1M) and the same merger trees. While their free parameters have been calibrated to the same observational data sets using two approaches, they nevertheless retain some ‘memory’ of any previous calibration that served as the starting point (especially for the manually tuned models). For the first calibration, models reproduce the observed z = 0 galaxy stellar mass function (SMF) within 3σ. The second calibration extended the observational data to include the z = 2 SMF alongside the z ∼ 0 star formation rate function, cold gas mass, and the black hole–bulge mass relation. Encapsulating the observed evolution of the SMF from z = 2 to 0 is found to be very hard within the context of the physics currently included in the models. We finally use our calibrated models to study the evolution of the stellar-to-halo mass (SHM) ratio. For all models, we find that the peak value of the SHM relation decreases with redshift. However, the trends seen for the evolution of the peak position as well as the mean scatter in the SHM relation are rather weak and strongly model dependent. Both the calibration data sets and model results are publicly available

HLA-DQA1*05 carriage associated with development of anti-drug antibodies to infliximab and adalimumab in patients with Crohn's Disease

Anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapies are the most widely used biologic drugs for treating immune-mediated diseases, but repeated administration can induce the formation of anti-drug antibodies. The ability to identify patients at increased risk for development of anti-drug antibodies would facilitate selection of therapy and use of preventative strategies.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on Publisher URL to access the full-text

A minimal model of elastic instabilities in biological filament bundles

We present a model of a system of elastic fibres which exhibits complex, coupled, nonlinear deformations via a connecting elastic spring network. This model can capture physically observed deformations such as global buckling, pinching and internal collapse. We explore the transitions between these deformation modes numerically, using an energy minimization approach, highlighting how supported environments, or stiff outer sheath structures, favour internal structural collapse over global deformation. We then derive a novel analytic buckling criterion for the internal collapse of the system, a mode of structural collapse pertinent in many biological filament bundles such as the optic nerve bundle and microtubule bundles involved in cell abscission

Let Spin broadcasts

An ongoing list of broadcasts by my quartet Let Spin, a project that forms a notable part of my research into composing for improvisers, improvisational languages and ensemble microtradition. The list dates back to September 2022, when I joined Goldsmiths. These broadcasts feature pieces composed by other members of the group than myself and group improvisations. Most are first broadcasts but one or two are repeats