Bayesian Model Selection for LISA Pathfinder

The main goal of the LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission is to fully characterize the acceleration noise models and to test key technologies for future space-based gravitational-wave observatories similar to the eLISA concept. The data analysis team has developed complex three-dimensional models of the LISA Technology Package (LTP) experiment on-board LPF. These models are used for simulations, but more importantly, they will be used for parameter estimation purposes during flight operations. One of the tasks of the data analysis team is to identify the physical effects that contribute significantly to the properties of the instrument noise. A way of approaching this problem is to recover the essential parameters of a LTP model fitting the data. Thus, we want to define the simplest model that efficiently explains the observations. To do so, adopting a Bayesian framework, one has to estimate the so-called Bayes Factor between two competing models. In our analysis, we use three main different methods to estimate it: The Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the Schwarz criterion, and the Laplace approximation. They are applied to simulated LPF experiments where the most probable LTP model that explains the observations is recovered. The same type of analysis presented in this paper is expected to be followed during flight operations. Moreover, the correlation of the output of the aforementioned methods with the design of the experiment is explored

Centrifuge model testing for pile foundation reuse

With continuous development in the urban environment the ground is becoming more and more congested with redundant foundations. The underground development of services and infrastructure already restricts the location of new building foundations and the redundant foundations only add to this problem. This paper describes how existing single pile foundations in overconsolidated clay are likely to behave when their loading conditions are changed by un-loading caused by demolition and subsequent re-loading from a new development. The influence of any new foundations on the existing foundations is also described. Experimental data were obtained from a series of centrifuge model tests undertaken at 60g in which a number of different geometries of novel pile groups were modelled. Model tests included comparison of the behaviour of bored piles when supplemented with mini-pile groups

The role of Comprehension in Requirements and Implications for Use Case Descriptions

Within requirements engineering it is generally accepted that in writing specifications (or indeed any requirements phase document), one attempts to produce an artefact which will be simple to comprehend for the user. That is, whether the document is intended for customers to validate requirements, or engineers to understand what the design must deliver, comprehension is an important goal for the author. Indeed, advice on producing ‘readable’ or ‘understandable’ documents is often included in courses on requirements engineering. However, few researchers, particularly within the software engineering domain, have attempted either to define or to understand the nature of comprehension and it’s implications for guidance on the production of quality requirements. Therefore, this paper examines thoroughly the nature of textual comprehension, drawing heavily from research in discourse process, and suggests some implications for requirements (and other) software documentation. In essence, we find that the guidance on writing requirements, often prevalent within software engineering, may be based upon assumptions which are an oversimplification of the nature of comprehension. Hence, the paper examines guidelines which have been proposed, in this case for use case descriptions, and the extent to which they agree with discourse process theory; before suggesting refinements to the guidelines which attempt to utilise lessons learned from our richer understanding of the underlying discourse process theory. For example, we suggest subtly different sets of writing guidelines for the different tasks of requirements, specification and design

Fluorescence characterization of clinically-important bacteria

Healthcare-associated infections (HCAI/HAI) represent a substantial threat to patient health during hospitalization and incur billions of dollars additional cost for subsequent treatment. One promising method for the detection of bacterial contamination in a clinical setting before an HAI outbreak occurs is to exploit native fluorescence of cellular molecules for a hand-held, rapid-sweep surveillance instrument. Previous studies have shown fluorescence-based detection to be sensitive and effective for food-borne and environmental microorganisms, and even to be able to distinguish between cell types, but this powerful technique has not yet been deployed on the macroscale for the primary surveillance of contamination in healthcare facilities to prevent HAI. Here we report experimental data for the specification and design of such a fluorescence-based detection instrument. We have characterized the complete fluorescence response of eleven clinically-relevant bacteria by generating excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) over broad wavelength ranges. Furthermore, a number of surfaces and items of equipment commonly present on a ward, and potentially responsible for pathogen transfer, have been analyzed for potential issues of background fluorescence masking the signal from contaminant bacteria. These include bedside handrails, nurse call button, blood pressure cuff and ward computer keyboard, as well as disinfectant cleaning products and microfiber cloth. All examined bacterial strains exhibited a distinctive double-peak fluorescence feature associated with tryptophan with no other cellular fluorophore detected. Thus, this fluorescence survey found that an emission peak of 340nm, from an excitation source at 280nm, was the cellular fluorescence signal to target for detection of bacterial contamination. The majority of materials analysed offer a spectral window through which bacterial contamination could indeed be detected. A few instances were found of potential problems of background fluorescence masking that of bacteria, but in the case of the microfiber cleaning cloth, imaging techniques could morphologically distinguish between stray strands and bacterial contamination

Collective Animal Behavior from Bayesian Estimation and Probability Matching

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is based on empirical fits to observations and we lack first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching.
In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability given by the Bayesian estimation that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior

Skeletal growth in class II malocclusion from childhood to adolescence: does the profile straighten?

BACKGROUND There is relatively little appreciation of the changes in maxillary-mandibular relationships occurring during adolescence among subjects with normal and increased overjet. The aim of this study was to assess differences in changes in maxillo-mandibular relationships during the adolescent growth period based on the presence of a normal ( 4 mm) overjet in childhood. Our hypothesis was that there is no difference in the change of the A point, nasion, B point (ANB) angle during growth between these two overjet groups. Lateral cephalograms were obtained from 65 subjects taken from the American Association of Orthodontists Foundation (AAOF) Craniofacial Growth Legacy Collections Project. Cephalograms were obtained at ages 7-10 (T0) and 14-17 (T1) with allocation into two groups based on baseline overjet (> 4 mm: group 1, 2-4 mm: group 2). Random effects linear regression was used to account for multiple within -patient measurements with dependent variables including antero-posterior skeletal pattern (based on sella, nasion, A point (SNA); sella, nasion, B point (SNB); and ANB angles). RESULTS We included a similar number of males (n = 34; 52.3%) and females (n = 31; 47.7%). The mean ANB was higher at baseline in group 1 (5.42, SD 2.16°) than in group 2 (3.08, SD 1.91°). The hypothesis was rejected as the ANB angle reduced by 1.92° more in the larger overjet group with the association being statistically significant after accounting for age and gender (P  4 mm overjet group compared to the 2-4 mm group (0.857°, P = 0.271; 95% CI - 0.669 to 2.383). The SNB angle increased by 1.15° more in the higher overjet group but there was only weak evidence of an association (P = 0.086; 95% CI - 2.464 to 0.164). CONCLUSIONS A slight straightening of the facial profile was observed in both groups with a statistically significant greater reduction in ANB arising in the group with larger baseline overjet. This translated into a marginal reduction in the overjet in this group

Beyond the required LISA free-fall performance: new LISA pathfinder results down to 20 μHz

In the months since the publication of the first results, the noise performance of LISA Pathfinder has improved because of reduced Brownian noise due to the continued decrease in pressure around the test masses, from a better correction of noninertial effects, and from a better calibration of the electrostatic force actuation. In addition, the availability of numerous long noise measurement runs, during which no perturbation is purposely applied to the test masses, has allowed the measurement of noise with good statistics down to 20  μHz. The Letter presents the measured differential acceleration noise figure, which is at (1.74±0.05)  fm s^{-2}/sqrt[Hz] above 2 mHz and (6±1)×10  fm s^{-2}/sqrt[Hz] at 20  μHz, and discusses the physical sources for the measured noise. This performance provides an experimental benchmark demonstrating the ability to realize the low-frequency science potential of the LISA mission, recently selected by the European Space Agency

The Effect of Testing on the Retention of Coherent and Incoherent Text Material

Research has shown that testing during learning can enhance the long-term retention of text material. In two experiments, we investigated the testing effect with a fill-in-the-blank test on the retention of text material. In Experiment 1, using a coherent text, we found no retention benefit of testing compared to a restudy (control) condition. In Experiment 2, text coherence was disrupted by scrambling the order of the sentences from the text. The material was subsequently presented as a list of facts as opposed to connected discourse. For the incoherent version of the text, testing slowed down the rate of forgetting compared to a restudy (control) condition. The results suggest that the connectedness of materials can play an important role in determining the magnitude of testing benefits for long-term retention. Testing with a completion test seems most beneficial for unconnected materials and less so for highly structured materials

Adherence with tobramycin inhaled solution and health care utilization

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Adherence with tobramycin inhalation solution (TIS) during routine cystic fibrosis (CF) care may differ from recommended guidelines and affect health care utilization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed 2001-2006 healthcare claims data from 45 large employers. Study subjects had diagnoses of CF and at least 1 prescription for TIS. We measured adherence as the number of TIS therapy cycles completed during the year and categorized overall adherence as: low ≤ 2 cycles, medium >2 to <4 cycles, and high ≥ 4 cycles per year. Interquartile ranges (IQR) were created for health care utilization and logistic regression analysis of hospitalization risk was conducted by TIS adherence categories.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 804 individuals identified with CF and a prescription for TIS, only 7% (n = 54) received ≥ 4 cycles of TIS per year. High adherence with TIS was associated with a decreased risk of hospitalization when compared to individuals receiving ≤ 2 cycles (adjusted odds ratio 0.40; 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.84). High adherence with TIS was also associated with lower outpatient service costs (IQR: $2,159-$8444 vs. $2,410-$14,423) and higher outpatient prescription drug costs (IQR: $35,125-$60,969 vs. $10,353-$46,768).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Use of TIS did not reflect recommended guidelines and may impact other health care utilization.</p

Analyzing the Impacts of Off-Road Vehicle (ORV) Trails on Watershed Processes in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska

Trails created by off-road vehicles (ORV) in boreal lowlands are known to cause local impacts, such as denuded vegetation, soil erosion, and permafrost thaw, but impacts on stream and watershed processes are less certain. In Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST), Alaska, ORV trails have caused local resource damage in intermountain lowlands with permafrost soils and abundant wetlands and there is a need to know whether these impacts are more extensive. Comparison of aerial photography from 1957, 1981, and 2004 coupled with ground surveys in 2009 reveal an increase in trail length and number and show an upslope expansion of a trail system around points of stream channel initiation. We hypothesized that these impacts could also cause premature initiation and headward expansion of channels because of lowered soil resistance and greater runoff accumulation as trails migrate upslope. Soil monitoring showed earlier and deeper thaw of the active layer in and adjacent to trails compared to reference sites. Several rainfall-runoff events during the summer of 2009 showed increased and sustained flow accumulation below trail crossings and channel shear forces sufficient to cause headward erosion of silt and peat soils. These observations of trail evolution relative to stream and wetland crossings together with process studies suggest that ORV trails are altering watershed processes. These changes in watershed processes appear to result in increasing drainage density and may also alter downstream flow regimes, water quality, and aquatic habitat. Addressing local land-use disturbances in boreal and arctic parklands with permafrost soils, such as WRST, where responses to climate change may be causing concurrent shifts in watershed processes, represents an important challenge facing resource managers