Acute effects of a large bolide impact simulated by a global atmospheric circulation model

The goal is to use a global three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model developed for studies of atmospheric effects of nuclear war to examine the time evolution of atmospheric effects from a large bolide impact. The model allows for dust and NOx injection, atmospheric transport by winds, removal by precipitation, radiative transfer effects, stratospheric ozone chemistry, and nitric acid formation and deposition on a simulated Earth having realistic geography. Researchers assume a modest 2 km-diameter impactor of the type that could have formed the 32 km-diameter impact structure found near Manson, Iowa and dated at roughly 66 Ma. Such an impact would have created on the order of 5 x 10 to the 10th power metric tons of atmospheric dust (about 0.01 g cm(-2) if spread globally) and 1 x 10 to the 37th power molecules of NO, or two orders of magnitude more stratospheric NO than might be produced in a large nuclear war. Researchers ignore potential injections of CO2 and wildfire smoke, and assume the direct heating of the atmosphere by impact ejecta on a regional scale is not large compared to absorption of solar energy by dust. Researchers assume an impact site at 45 N in the interior of present day North America

An Experimental Investigation of Colonel Blotto Games

"This article examines behavior in the two-player, constant-sum Colonel Blotto game with asymmetric resources in which players maximize the expected number of battlefields won. The experimental results support all major theoretical predictions. In the auction treatment, where winning a battlefield is deterministic, disadvantaged players use a 'guerilla warfare' strategy which stochastically allocates zero resources to a subset of battlefields. Advantaged players employ a 'stochastic complete coverage' strategy, allocating random, but positive, resource levels across the battlefields. In the lottery treatment, where winning a battlefield is probabilistic, both players divide their resources equally across all battlefields." (author's abstract)"Dieser Artikel untersucht das Verhalten von Individuen in einem 'constant-sum Colonel Blotto'-Spiel zwischen zwei Spielern, bei dem die Spieler mit unterschiedlichen Ressourcen ausgestattet sind und die erwartete Anzahl gewonnener Schlachtfelder maximieren. Die experimentellen Ergebnisse bestätigen alle wichtigen theoretischen Vorhersagen. Im Durchgang, in dem wie in einer Auktion der Sieg in einem Schlachtfeld deterministisch ist, wenden die Spieler, die sich im Nachteil befinden, eine 'Guerillataktik' an, und verteilen ihre Ressourcen stochastisch auf eine Teilmenge der Schlachtfelder. Spieler mit einem Vorteil verwenden eine Strategie der 'stochastischen vollständigen Abdeckung', indem sie zufällig eine positive Ressourcenmenge auf allen Schlachtfeldern positionieren. Im Durchgang, in dem sich der Gewinn eines Schlachtfeldes probabilistisch wie in einer Lotterie bestimmt, teilen beide Spieler ihre Ressourcen gleichmäßig auf alle Schlachtfelder auf." (Autorenreferat

Islands of relationality and resilience: the shifting stakes of the Anthropocene

In recent decades island studies scholars have done much to disrupt static notions of the island form, increasingly foregrounding how islands form part of complex networks of relations, assemblages and flows. In this paper, we shift the terms of debate more explicitly to relationality in the Anthropocene. We consider the implications and challenges that a wider set of debates, particularly surrounding island ‘resilience’, concerning the Anthropocene in the social sciences and humanities pose for island studies

Reactive nitrogen and ozone over the western Pacific: Distribution, partitioning, and sources

Measurements of important reactive nitrogen species (NO, NO2, HNO3, PAN, PPN, NO3−, NOy), C1 to C6 hydrocarbons, O3, chemical tracers (C2Cl4, CO), and meteorological parameters were made in the troposphere (0 to 12 km) over the western Pacific (0°–50°N) during the Pacific Exploratory Mission‐West A campaign (September–October 1991). Under clean conditions, mixing ratios of NO, NO2, NOy, and O3 increased with altitude and showed a distinct latitudinal gradient. PAN showed a midtropospheric maximum, while nitric acid mixing ratios were generally highest near the surface. Measured NOy concentrations were significantly greater than the sum of individually measured nitrogen species (mainly NOx, PAN, and HNO3), suggesting that a large fraction of reactive nitrogen present in the atmosphere is made up of hitherto unknown species. This shortfall was larger in the tropics (≈65%) compared to midlatitudes (≈40%) and was minimal in air masses with high HNO3 mixing ratios (\u3e100 ppt). A global three‐dimensional photochemical model has been used to compare observations with predictions and to assess the significance of major sources. It is possible that the tropical lightning source is much greater than commonly assumed, and both lightning source and its distribution remain a major area of uncertainty in the budgets of NOy and NOx. A large disagreement between measurement and theory exists in the atmospheric distribution of HNO3. It appears that surface‐based anthropogenic emissions provide nearly 65% of the global atmospheric NOy reservoir. Relatively constant NOx/NOy ratios imply that NOy and NOx are in chemical equilibrium and the NOy reservoir may be an important in situ source of atmospheric NOx. Data are interpreted to suggest that only about 20% of the upper tropospheric (7–12 km) NOx is directly attributable to its surface NOx source, and free tropospheric sources are dominant. In situ release of NOx from the NOy reservoir, lightning, direct transport of surface NOx, aircraft emissions, and small stratospheric input collectively maintain the NOx balance in the atmosphere. It is shown that atmospheric ratios of reactive nitrogen and sulfur species, along with trajectory analysis, can be used to pinpoint the source of Asian continental outflow. Compared to rural atmospheres over North America, air masses over the Pacific are highly efficient in net O3 production. Sources of tropospheric NOx cannot yet be accurately defined due to shortcomings in measurements and theory

Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering

In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed

The Anthropocene monument:on relating geological and human time

In the Parthenon frieze, the time of mortals and the time of gods seem to merge. Dipesh Chakrabarty has argued that with the advent of the Anthropocene the times of human history and of the Earth are similarly coming together. Are humans entering the ‘monumental time’ of the Earth, to stand alongside the Olympian gods of the other geological forces? In this paper I first look at the cultural shifts leading to the modern idea of separate human and Earth histories. I examine the changing use of monuments to mediate between human and other temporalities. I explore the use of ‘stratigraphic sections’ as natural monuments to mark transitions between the major time units of Earth history, and the erection of intentional monuments nearby. I suggest that the Anthropocene, as a geological epoch-in-the-making, may challenge the whole system of monumental semiotics used to stabilise our way of thinking about deep time