Common Causes and The Direction of Causation

Is the common cause principle merely one of a set of useful heuristics for discovering causal relations, or is it rather a piece of heavy duty metaphysics, capable of grounding the direction of causation itself? Since the principle was introduced in Reichenbach’s groundbreaking work The Direction of Time (1956), there have been a series of attempts to pursue the latter program—to take the probabilistic relationships constitutive of the principle of the common cause and use them to ground the direction of causation. These attempts have not all explicitly appealed to the principle as originally formulated; it has also appeared in the guise of independence conditions, counterfactual overdetermination, and, in the causal modelling literature, as the causal markov condition. In this paper, I identify a set of difficulties for grounding the asymmetry of causation on the principle and its descendents. The first difficulty, concerning what I call the vertical placement of causation, consists of a tension between considerations that drive towards the macroscopic scale, and considerations that drive towards the microscopic scale—the worry is that these considerations cannot both be comfortably accommodated. The second difficulty consists of a novel potential counterexample to the principle based on the familiar Einstein Podolsky Rosen (EPR) cases in quantum mechanics

Assessment of Connections Between Knowledge- Based Economy Characteristics and Selected Macroeconomic Categories in the European Union's Countries by Means of Panel Models

The aim of the article is to analyze the impact of knowledge-based economy variables on the selected macroeconomic categories - the share of total investments in GDP and the employment rate- in European Union's countries in the years 2000-2007, conducted with application of panel models.Celem artykułu jest analiza wpływu zmiennych opisujących gospodarkę opartą na wiedzy na podstawowe kategorie makroekonomiczne - udział całkowitych inwestycji w PKB i stopę zatrudnienia - w krajach Unii Europejskiej (z podziałem na kraje UE-15 i nowe kraje członkowskie UE) w latach 2000-2007, przeprowadzona w oparciu o modele panelowe

Physiological and biochemical responses to low non-freezing temperature of two Eucalyptus globulus clones differing in drought resistance

Abstract – We have compared the metabolic responses of leaves and roots of two Eucalyptus globulus L. clones CN5 and ST51 that differ in their sensitivity to water deficits (ST51 is more drought sensitive), with regard to the effect of chilling (10/5 ◦C, day/night). We studied changes in growth, osmotic potential and osmotically active compounds, soluble proteins, leaf pigments, and membrane lipid composition. Our data showed that both clones have the ability to acclimatize to chilling temperatures. As a result of 10 days of acclimation, an increase of soluble sugars in leaves of treated plants of both clones was observed that disappeared later on. Differences between clones were observed in the photosynthetic pigments and soluble protein content which were more stable in CN5 under chilling. It also was apparent that CN5 presented a less negative predawn water potential (ψpd) and a higher leaf turgor than ST51 throughout the chilling treatment. In the case of the CN5, increased total lipids (TFA) and concomitant increase of linolenic acid (C18:3) in leaves after acclimatization may be related to a better clone performance under chilling temperatures. Moreover, a higher constitutive investment in roots in the case of CN5 as compared to ST51 may benefit new root regeneration under low temperatures favoring growth after cold Mediterranean winter

Shallow Dark Matter Cusps in Galaxy Clusters

We study the evolution of the stellar and dark matter components in a galaxy cluster of $10^{15} \, \rm{M_{\odot}}$ from $z=3$ to the present epoch using the high-resolution collisionless simulations of Ruszkowski & Springel (2009). At $z=3$ the dominant progenitor halos were populated with spherical model galaxies with and without accounting for adiabatic contraction. We apply a weighting scheme which allows us to change the relative amount of dark and stellar material assigned to each simulation particle in order to produce luminous properties which agree better with abundance matching arguments and observed bulge sizes at $z=3$. This permits the study of the effect of initial compactness on the evolution of the mass-size relation. We find that for more compact initial stellar distributions the size of the final Brightest Cluster Galaxy grows with mass according to $r\propto M^{2}$, whereas for more extended initial distributions, $r\propto M$. Our results show that collisionless mergers in a cosmological context can reduce the strength of inner dark matter cusps with changes in logarithmic slope of 0.3 to 0.5 at fixed radius. Shallow cusps such as those found recently in several strong lensing clusters thus do not necessarily conflict with CDM, but may rather reflect on the initial structure of the progenitor galaxies, which was shaped at high redshift by their formation process.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, submitted to MNRA

Empowerment or Engagement? Digital Health Technologies for Mental Healthcare

We argue that while digital health technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, smartphones, and virtual reality) present significant opportunities for improving the delivery of healthcare, key concepts that are used to evaluate and understand their impact can obscure significant ethical issues related to patient engagement and experience. Specifically, we focus on the concept of empowerment and ask whether it is adequate for addressing some significant ethical concerns that relate to digital health technologies for mental healthcare. We frame these concerns using five key ethical principles for AI ethics (i.e. autonomy, beneficence, non-maleficence, justice, and explicability), which have their roots in the bioethical literature, in order to critically evaluate the role that digital health technologies will have in the future of digital healthcare

Fiscal Policy, Private Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from G-7 Countries

Measuring the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth is difficult, because fiscal policy variables are influenced by changes in income. This paper uses an unbalanced panel data set for G-7 countries for the period 1965-2000 that includes annual estimates of cyclically adjusted government expenditures, capital outlays, income tax revenues, indirect tax revenues, corporate tax revenues and social security tax revenues, based on definitions developed by OECD revenue statistics. The percentage share of these estimates in GDP is used to investigate the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth, and results are compared with regression results that use 5-year averages of cyclically unadjusted variables. The empirical results from both sets of regressions suggest that only taxes on household income and government expenditures have negative effects on per capita income growth. We consolidate our findings by showing that both government expenditures and income taxes have distortionary effects on private investment

Are preferences over health states informed?

BACKGROUND: The use of preference-elicitation tasks for valuing health states is well established, but little is known about whether these preferences are informed. Preferences may not be informed because individuals with little experience of ill health are asked to value health states. The use of uninformed preferences in cost-effectiveness can result in sub-optimal resource allocation. The aim of this study was to pilot a novel method to assess whether members of the public are informed about health states they value in preference-elicitation tasks. METHODS: The general public was said to be informed if the expectations of the public about the effect of ill health on people's lives were in agreement with the experience of patients. Sixty-two members of the public provided their expectations of the consequences of ill health on five life domains (activities, enjoyment, independence, relationships, and avoiding being a burden). A secondary dataset was used to measure patient experience on those five consequences. RESULTS: There were differences between the expectations of the public and the experience of patients. For example, for all five life consequences the public underestimated the effects of problems in usual activities compared to problems in mobility. They also underestimated the effect of 'anxiety or depression' compared to physical problems on enjoyment of life and on the quality of personal relationships. CONCLUSIONS: This proof-of-concept study showed that it is possible to test whether preferences are informed. This study should be replicated using a larger sample. The findings suggest that preferences over health states in this sample are not fully informed because the participants do not have accurate expectations about the consequences of ill health. These uninformed preferences may not be adequate for allocation of public resources, and research is needed into methods to make them better informed

Peculiar Features of the Velocity Field of OB Associations and the Spiral Structure of the Galaxy

Some of the peculiar features of the periodic velocity-field structure for OB associations can be explained by using the model of Roberts and Hausman (1984), in which the behavior of a system of dense clouds is considered in a perturbed potential. The absence of statistically significant variations in the azimuthal velocity across the Carina arm, probably, results from its sharp increase behind the shock front, which is easily blurred by distance errors. The existence of a shock wave in the spiral arms and, at the same time, the virtually free motion of OB associations in epicycles can be reconciled in the model of particle clouds with a mean free path of 0.2-2 kpc. The velocity field of OB associations exhibits two appreciable nonrandom deviations from an ideal spiral pattern: a 0.5-kpc displacement of the Cygnus- and Carina-arm fragments from one another and a weakening of the Perseus arm in quadrant III. However, the identified fragments of the Carina, Cygnus, and Perseus arms do not belong to any of the known types of spurs.Comment: 14 pages, 3 postscript figures, to be published in Astronomy Letter

Residential electricity pricing in China

The paper aims to evaluate the implications of the new residential pricing system in China by examining price and income elasticity of demand by different household types. We use pre-reform annual panel data for 29 provinces over a fourteen year period, from 1998 to 2011, applying feasible generalize least squares models. The price and income elasticities for household sector are -0.412, and 1.476 at nation level, -0.300 and 1.550 in urban areas and -0.522 and 1.093 in rural areas respectively. With regional effects, the price and income elasticities are -0.146 and 1.286 for urban households in coastal provinces and -0.772 and 1.259 for urban households in inland provinces respectively. The empirical results reveal that there is important heterogeneity in the responsiveness to electricity price changes according to household income level and location