Balancing influence between actors in healthcare decision making

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Healthcare costs in most developed countries are not clearly linked to better patient and public health outcomes, but are rather associated with service delivery orientation. In the U.S. this has resulted in large variation in healthcare availability and use, increased cost, reduced employer participation in health insurance programs, and reduced overall population health outcomes. Recent U.S. healthcare reform legislation addresses only some of these issues. Other countries face similar healthcare issues.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>A major goal of healthcare is to enhance patient health outcomes. This objective is not realized in many countries because incentives and structures are currently not aligned for maximizing population health. The misalignment occurs because of the competing interests between "actors" in healthcare. In a simplified model these are individuals motivated to enhance their own health; enterprises (including a mix of nonprofit, for profit and government providers, payers, and suppliers, etc.) motivated by profit, political, organizational and other forces; and government which often acts in the conflicting roles of a healthcare payer and provider in addition to its role as the representative and protector of the people. An imbalance exists between the actors, due to the resources and information control of the enterprise and government actors relative to the individual and the public. Failure to use effective preventive interventions is perhaps the best example of the misalignment of incentives. We consider the current Pareto efficient balance between the actors in relation to the Pareto frontier, and show that a significant change in the healthcare market requires major changes in the utilities of the enterprise and government actors.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>A variety of actions are necessary for maximizing population health within the constraints of available resources and the current balance between the actors. These actions include improved transparency of all aspects of medical decision making, greater involvement of patients in shared medical decision making, greater oversight of guideline development and coverage decisions, limitations on direct to consumer advertising, and the need for an enhanced role of the government as the public advocate.</p

A review of data needed to parameterize a dynamic model of measles in developing countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dynamic models of infection transmission can project future disease burden within a population. Few dynamic measles models have been developed for low-income countries, where measles disease burden is highest. Our objective was to review the literature on measles epidemiology in low-income countries, with a particular focus on data that are needed to parameterize dynamic models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included age-stratified case reporting and seroprevalence studies with fair to good sample sizes for mostly urban African and Indian populations. We emphasized studies conducted before widespread immunization. We summarized age-stratified attack rates and seroprevalence profiles across these populations. Using the study data, we fitted a "representative" seroprevalence profile for African and Indian settings. We also used a catalytic model to estimate the age-dependent force of infection for individual African and Indian studies where seroprevalence was surveyed. We used these data to quantify the effects of population density on the basic reproductive number <it>R</it>₀.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The peak attack rate usually occurred at age 1 year in Africa, and 1 to 2 years in India, which is earlier than in developed countries before mass vaccination. Approximately 60% of children were seropositive for measles antibody by age 2 in Africa and India, according to the representative seroprevalence profiles. A statistically significant decline in the force of infection with age was found in 4 of 6 Indian seroprevalence studies, but not in 2 African studies. This implies that the classic threshold result describing the critical proportion immune (<it>p</it>_c) required to eradicate an infectious disease, <it>p</it>_c= 1-1/<it>R</it>₀, may overestimate the required proportion immune to eradicate measles in some developing country populations. A possible, though not statistically significant, positive relation between population density and <it>R</it>₀for various Indian and African populations was also found. These populations also showed a similar pattern of waning of maternal antibodies. Attack rates in rural Indian populations show little dependence on vaccine coverage or population density compared to urban Indian populations. Estimated <it>R</it>₀values varied widely across populations which has further implications for measles elimination.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is possible to develop a broadly informative dynamic model of measles transmission in low-income country settings based on existing literature, though it may be difficult to develop a model that is closely tailored to any given country. Greater efforts to collect data specific to low-income countries would aid in control efforts by allowing highly population-specific models to be developed.</p

On plexus representation of dissimilarities

Correspondence analysis has found widespread application in analysing vegetation gradients. However, it is not clear how it is robust to situations where structures other than a simple gradient exist. The introduction of instrumental variables in canonical correspondence analysis does not avoid these difficulties. In this paper I propose to examine some simple methods based on the notion of the plexus (sensu McIntosh) where graphs or networks are used to display some of the structure of the data so that an informed choice of models is possible. I showthat two different classes of plexus model are available. These classes are distinguished by the use in one case of a global Euclidean model to obtain well-separated pair decomposition (WSPD) of a set of points which implicitly involves all dissimilarities, while in the other a Riemannian view is taken and emphasis is placed locally, i.e., on small dissimilarities. I showan example of each of these classes applied to vegetation data

An Ecological Approach to Prospective and Retrospective Timing of Long Durations: A Study Involving Gamers

To date, most studies comparing prospective and retrospective timing have failed to use long durations and tasks with a certain degree of ecological validity. The present study assessed the effect of the timing paradigm on playing video games in a “naturalistic environment” (gaming centers). In addition, as it involved gamers, it provided an opportunity to examine the effect of gaming profile on time estimation. A total of 116 participants were asked to estimate prospectively or retrospectively a video game session lasting 12, 35 or 58 minutes. The results indicate that time is perceived as longer in the prospective paradigm than in the retrospective one, although the variability of estimates is the same. Moreover, the 12-minute session was perceived as longer, proportionally, than the 35- and 58-minute sessions. The study also revealed that the number of hours participants spent playing video games per week was a significant predictor of time estimates. To account for the main findings, the differences between prospective and retrospective timing are discussed in quantitative terms using a proposed theoretical framework, which states that both paradigms use the same cognitive processes, but in different proportions. Finally, the hypothesis that gamers play more because they underestimate time is also discussed

Coronary heart disease policy models: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: The prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD) is complex. A variety of models have therefore been developed to try and explain past trends and predict future possibilities. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the strengths and limitations of existing CHD policy models. METHODS: A search strategy was developed, piloted and run in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases, supplemented by manually searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Two reviewers independently checked the papers for inclusion and appraisal. All CHD modelling studies were included which addressed a defined population and reported on one or more key outcomes (deaths prevented, life years gained, mortality, incidence, prevalence, disability or cost of treatment). RESULTS: In total, 75 articles describing 42 models were included; 12 (29%) of the 42 models were micro-simulation, 8 (19%) cell-based, and 8 (19%) life table analyses, while 14 (33%) used other modelling methods. Outcomes most commonly reported were cost-effectiveness (36%), numbers of deaths prevented (33%), life-years gained (23%) or CHD incidence (23%). Among the 42 models, 29 (69%) included one or more risk factors for primary prevention, while 8 (19%) just considered CHD treatments. Only 5 (12%) were comprehensive, considering both risk factors and treatments. The six best-developed models are summarised in this paper, all are considered in detail in the appendices. CONCLUSION: Existing CHD policy models vary widely in their depth, breadth, quality, utility and versatility. Few models have been calibrated against observed data, replicated in different settings or adequately validated. Before being accepted as a policy aid, any CHD model should provide an explicit statement of its aims, assumptions, outputs, strengths and limitations

Highly Selective Phosgene-Free Carbamoylation of Aniline by Dimethyl Carbonate under Continuous-Flow Conditions

Over the last 20 years organic carbamates have found numerous applications in pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, dyes, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and as protecting groups and intermediates for polyurethane synthesis. Recently, in order to avoid phosgene-based synthesis of carbamates, many environmentally benign and alternative pathways have been investigated. However, few examples of carbamoylation of aniline in continuous-flow apparatus have been reported. In this work, we report a high-yielding, dimethyl carbonate (DMC)-mediated carbamoylation of aniline in a fixed-bed continuously fed reactor employing basic zinc carbonate as catalyst. Several variables of the system have been investigated (i.e. molar ratio of reagents , flow rate, and reaction temperature) to optimize the operating conditions of the system