Predictive analysis of information in the tourism sector

En este trabajo de fin de grado se ha presentado un estudio sobre los modelos predictivos ARIMA, MLP y LSTM, donde se ha realizado una comparativa entre todos estos con la finalidad de tomar el más adecuado como modelo de predicción. Además, se ha realizado el tratamiento de las series temporales para conseguir resultados óptimos para nuestro problema, la predicción del número de pasajeros que vendrán a Málaga en un futuro para la toma de decisiones de los diversos negocios, en nuestro caso se tomaron como referencia la base de datos de los vuelos "Amadeus" y es sobre esta base de datos sobre la cual se ha realizado todos los estudios. Sin embargo, los modelos son construidos de tal manera que pueden ser probados con cualquier otra base de datos, siempre y cuando estemos hablando de series temporales con estacionalidad de 12 meses, ya que todos los tratamientos realizados en los modelos giran en torno a esto

Accounting and risk management in the age of compliance

La tesis doctoral analiza desde una perspectiva contable el desarrollo de los sistemas de compliance. El trabajo estudia la evolución de estos sistemas de gestión de riesgos desde su origen a finales del siglo XX con un enfoque meramente financiero hasta primeros del siglo XXI cuando han adquirido mayores competencias de control sobre las conductas poco éticas o el incumplimiento de la legislación correspondiente. La tesis analiza el rol de la contabilidad desde tres perspectivas diferente. En un primer analiza como la literatura previa en contabilidad está estudiando el aseguramiento como una herramienta que provea confianza a las empresas de que sus sistemas son efectivos. En segundo lugar, analizando los códigos éticos como herramientas de gestión de riesgos que eviten la comisión de delitos y, en tercer lugar, como los riesgos se construyen en el caso de los delitos contra el medio ambiente y la salud de las personas. Esta tesis es de las primeras desarrolladas sobre compliance desde una perspectiva contable

The competitiveness of Spanish tomato export in the European Union

This paper examines the export performance of Spanish tomatoes in the European Union (EU). The origins and destinations of Spanish tomato exports are examined: Almeria is the main exporting province and Germany the biggest client. The performance of Spain’s North African competitors in the tomato market (mainly Morocco) is also examined, and the structural competitiveness of the countries that export tomatoes to the EU is analysed. Spain has the greatest advantage in this respect, and the largest inter-industry trade. An export model is developed. This model shows that the export of tomatoes from Almeria is not much influenced by shipments from Morocco.trade, price, competition, cointegration, Almería, strategy

Cooperative Longevity and Sustainable Development in a Family Farming System

This paper focuses on small holding, family farming in Southeast Spain where agricultural economic activity is predominantly organized around cooperative business models. A variety of diverse studies on the Almería agricultural and credit cooperative sector and the exploration of social-economic and eco-social indicators, in addition to economic-market indicators are presented. Each correspond to a cooperative “logic” that spans theoretical perspectives from the dominant economic-market model, new institutionalism, and an eco-social approach, echoing theories on collective coordination governance, and the avoidance of the “tragedy of the commons”. The latter is of particular importance given environmental challenges and scarce resources for agricultural activity. The cooperatives in Almería have increasingly relied on collective collaboration and coordination in order to meet social-economic and social-ecological challenges, transforming their role from that founded on a market dominant logic to that of cooperation as a coordination mechanism based on the mutual benefit of the community and environment. In turn, their ability to meet a wide range of needs and challenges of members and the community leads to their longevity. Cooperatives are able to act as both a market and non-market coordination mechanism, balancing the economic, social, and environmental dimensions, such that neither market nor non-market logics are dominant or exclusive

Factores relevantes en la medición de la pobreza y el desarrollo humano : índices PNUD

Este artículo analiza la relación entre los índices de pobreza y desarrollo humano elaborados por el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD) y las variables utilizadas en su cálculo. En el análisis se observa una redundancia de los índices cuando se utiliza una muestra de 93 países con desarrollo humano alto, medio y bajo. En esta situación, se verifica la relevancia de los factores de educación y salud en la explicación de la variabilidad de los datos. Sin embargo, la utilización de submuestras cambia la importancia, tanto de los factores que explican conjuntamente los índices como de la correlación entre éstos, aunque se mantiene la preponderancia de los factores sociales. Se plantean pues las preguntas: ¿debe primar una descripción detallada que justifique la existencia de ambos índices? O en cambio: ¿Debemos resumirlos y centrar la atención (y acción) en los factores más relevantes? En este trabajo se aboga por la segunda opción. ____________________________________________This paper analyzes the relation between the indexes of poverty and human development made by PNUD and the variables used in its calculation. A redundancy of the indexes is visible when a sample of 93 countries with human development high, medium and low is used. In this case, the relevancy of the social factors (education and health) is significant for explanation of the total variability of the information; although the use of sub samples changes the importance of the factors that explain the indexes and the interrelation between them. So, the following questions come up: Does one have to give priority to a detailed description that justifies the existence of both indexes? Or, on the other hand: must we summarize and focus the attention (and action) on the most relevant factors? I agree with the second option

Concepciones de biodiversidad de docentes en formación de la licenciatura en Biología de dos comunidades académicas culturalmente diferenciadas en Colombia

El estudio de las concepciones de Biodiversidad, permite ubicarlas como un tema emergente y trascendental en los debates contemporáneos en educación en ciencias. Colombia, no cuenta con investigaciones en educación en este campo. La presente investigación de la Tesis Doctoral2, se adelanta en Bogotá y la Chorrera-Amazonas para caracterizar este fenómeno de la diversidad Biocultural. Los resultados preliminares se presentan a partir de la interpretación de dos entrevistas, considerando las dimensiones Histórica, política, educativa, ecocultural y las referidas a la diversidad epistémica y ontológica que emergieron en el proceso de interpretación, centrales en la aportación a una educación científica intercultural en los programas de formación de profesores de Biología y en el reconocimiento, cuidado y protección de estas diversidades

A Consistent Spectral Model of WR 136 and its Associated Bubble NGC 6888

We analyse whether a stellar atmosphere model computed with the code CMFGEN provides an optimal description of the stellar observations of WR 136 and simultaneously reproduces the nebular observations of NGC 6888, such as the ionization degree, which is modelled with the pyCloudy code. All the observational material available (far and near UV and optical spectra) were used to constrain such models. We found that even when the stellar luminosity and the mass-loss rate were well constrained, the stellar temperature T_* at tau = 20, can be in a range between 70 000 and 110 000 K. When using the nebula as an additional restriction we found that the stellar models with T_* \sim 70 000 K represent the best solution for both, the star and the nebula. Results from the photoionization model show that if we consider a chemically homogeneous nebula, the observed N^+/O^+ ratios found in different nebular zones can be reproduced, therefore it is not necessary to assume a chemical inhomogeneous nebula. Our work shows the importance of calculating coherent models including stellar and nebular constraints. This allowed us to determine, in a consistent way, all the physical parameters of both the star and its associated nebula. The chemical abundances derived are 12 + log(N/H) = 9.95, 12 + log(C/H) = 7.84 and 12 + log(O/H) = 8.76 for the star and 12 + log(N/H) = 8.40, 12 + log(C/H) = 8.86 and 12 + log(O/H) = 8.20. Thus the star and the nebula are largely N- and C- enriched and O-depleted.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, 8 tables; MNRAS accepte

Is Sustainability Compatible with Profitability? An Empirical Analysis on Family Farming Activity

Sustainability is a social concern and a new strategic factor for productive and economic viability. Nevertheless, research on this subject in a holistic approach is limited, and even to a lesser extent when dealing with family farms. This paper analyzes the impact of different aspects of sustainability (socio-economic characteristics, environmentally respectful practices, and innovation) on profitability. The data collection instruments include a survey questionnaire on farming in Almería, a province in Southeast Spain, and the methodology followed involves a two-step regression model. The main results show how several socio-economic and environmental-innovation features of family farms have positive effects on their economic performance. Among others, profitability increases when there are better educated and younger family farm decision-makers; the farm is specialized and supported by more efficient cooperatives: and, particularly, when the family farm displays greater concern for environmental practices and better disposition towards agroecological innovation

Analysis of Barriers and Opportunities for Reclaimed Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Europe

This paper presents an analysis of the perception regarding reclaimed wastewater reuse in agriculture conducted in the European Union regions. The analysis is based upon a SWOT framework and applies a cluster analysis to reduce the dimension of the responses enabling an assessment of the different perceptions of water reuse. More than one hundred key actors identified among the regions participated in the evaluation of the relevance of aspects identified. The results indicate some groups of countries according to natural conditions (water scarcity) and the strategic role of agriculture as a key factor to determine agent’s perceptions and attitudes. The results indicate that the forthcoming EU regulation of water reuse should focus in the problems of the perceived high cost of reclaimed water for farmers and the sanitary risk perception for irrigated crops by consumers as the critical points for fostering the use of reclaimed water in agriculture and the need for regional implementation of the global regulatory framework

Determinants of Food Safety Level in Fruit and Vegetable Wholesalers’ Supply Chain: Evidence from Spain and France

Food safety management in short supply chains of fruit and vegetables, controlled by large retailers, has been widely studied in the literature. However, when it comes to traditional long supply chains, which include a greater number of intermediaries and wholesalers who, in some cases, play a dual role as resellers and producers, the mechanisms which promote the use of safety certifications have yet to be clearly defined. The present study intended to fill this gap in the literature and shed light on the food safety level that exists in this channel. In addition, this work attempted to identify the existence of differences between both sales systems. For this purpose, the empirical research studied the most important variables that influence the food safety level of some of the main European fruit and vegetable wholesalers. A survey was thus designed and later applied to Spanish and French intermediaries working in key wholesale markets and in the southeast of Spain, which is the leading commercialization area of these products in Europe. The results revealed the positive influence of specific customers (big retailers) on establishing stricter safety controls within wholesale companies. It was also observed that specific wholesalers also play an important role in the system, namely those dedicated to importing, but which are also responsible for quality and safety inspection of agri-food products exported from third countries into the European Union