20 research outputs found

    Molecular Identification And Population Dynamics Of The Major Malaria Vectors In A Rainforest Zone Of Nigeria

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    Adult female mosquito vectors were collected from three villages in a typical rain forest area of Nigeria where no information exists on the major malaria vectors associated with human malaria. Sampling was carried out between January 2004 and January 2005 using pyrethrum and Human landing catch (HLC) techniques. A total catch of 2010 mosquitoes was recorded out of which 1800 were morphologically identified as female Anopheline mosquitoes. Further identification of the Anopheline species using the morphological keys revealed that 1399 (77.7%) belonged to the Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 401 (22.3%) to Anopheles funestus . A PCR based test on the Anopheles gambiae group identified 636 (45.5%) as Anopheles gambiae s.s and 763 (54.5%) as Anopheles arabiensis respectively. The cocktail PCR-assayon the total Anopheles funestus group showed 307 (76.6%), to be Anopheles funestus s.s and 94 (23.4%) to be Anopheles leesoni . The total number of Anopheles gambiae collected across the 3 villages was significantly higher (P<0.05) than the number of Anopheles funestus caught within the same period. However, there was a seasonal difference in the population of Anopheline species collected in which the wet season collections constitute 45.4% An.gambiae s.l and 17.7% An.funestus while the dry season population constitutes 32.3% An.gambiae s.l and 4.5% An.funestus. The dry seasoncollections were predominantly An. arabiensis producing 23.9% of the total catch in.The overall number of Anopheles mosquitoes collected in the wet season was significantly higher than that of the dry season (P<0.01). Generally, low sporozoite rates were recorded in all the communities and this may be an indication that transmission in this area is less intense. This study provides information on mosquito ecology, genetic and molecular techniques for identification of species complexes which are important strategies for planning malaria control programmes

    The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

    Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

    Molecular identification and population dynamics of the major malaria vectors in a rainforest zone of Nigeria

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    Adult female mosquito vectors were collected from three villages in a typical rain forest area of Nigeria where no information exists on the major malaria vectors associated with human malaria. Sampling was carried out between January 2004 and January 2005 using pyrethrum and Human landing catch (HLC) techniques. A total catch of 2010 mosquitoes was recorded out of which 1800 were morphologically identified as female Anopheline mosquitoes. Further identification of the Anopheline species using the morphological keys revealed that 1399 (77.7%) belonged to the Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 401 (22.3%) to Anopheles funestus. A PCR based test on the Anopheles gambiae group identified 636 (45.5%) as Anopheles gambiae s.s and 763 (54.5%) as Anopheles arabiensis respectively. The cocktail PCR-assay on the total Anopheles funestus group showed 307 (76.6%), to be Anopheles funestus s.s and 94 (23.4%) to be Anopheles leesoni. The total number of Anopheles gambiae collected across the 3 villages was significantly higher (

    Investigating the molecular basis of multiple insecticide resistance in a major malaria vector Anopheles funestus (sensu stricto) from Akaka-Remo, Ogun State, Nigeria

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    Background Understanding the mechanisms used by Anopheles mosquitoes to survive insecticide exposure is key to manage existing insecticide resistance and develop more suitable insecticide-based malaria vector control interventions as well as other alternative integrated tools. To this regard, the molecular basis of permethrin, DDT and dieldrin resistance in Anopheles funestus (sensu stricto) at Akaka-Remo was investigated. Methods Bioassays were conducted on 3–5-day-old adult An. funestus (s.s.) mosquitoes for permethrin, DDT and dieldrin susceptibility test. The molecular mechanisms of mosquito resistance to these insecticides were investigated using microarray and reverse transcriptase PCR techniques. The voltage-gated sodium channel region of mosquitoes was also screened for the presence of knockdown resistance mutations (kdr west and east) by sequencing method. Results Anopheles funestus (s.s.) population was resistant to permethrin (mortality rate of 68%), DDT (mortality rate of 10%) and dieldrin (mortality rate of 8%) insecticides. Microarray and RT-PCR analyses revealed the overexpression of glutathione S-transferase genes, cytochrome P450s, esterase, trypsin and cuticle proteins in resistant mosquitoes compared to control. The GSTe2 was the most upregulated detoxification gene in permethrin-resistant (FC = 44.89), DDT-resistant (FC = 57.39) and dieldrin-resistant (FC = 41.10) mosquitoes compared to control population (FC = 22.34). The cytochrome P450 gene, CYP6P9b was also upregulated in both permethrin- and DDT-resistant mosquitoes. The digestive enzyme, trypsin (hydrolytic processes) and the cuticle proteins (inducing cuticle thickening leading to reduced insecticides penetration) also showed high involvement in insecticide resistance, through their overexpression in resistant mosquitoes compared to control. The kdr east and west were absent in all mosquitoes analysed, suggesting their non-involvement in the observed mosquito resistance. Conclusions The upregulation of metabolic genes, especially the GSTe2 and trypsin, as well as the cuticle proteins is driving insecticide resistance of An. funestus (s.s.) population. However, additional molecular analyses, including functional metabolic assays of these genes as well as screening for a possible higher cuticular hydrocarbon and lipid contents, and increased procuticle thickness in resistant mosquitoes are needed to further describe their distinct roles in mosquito resistance

    Pneumonia hospitalizations and mortality in children 3 – 24-month-old in Nigeria from 2013 to 2020: Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine ten valent (PHiD-CV-10)

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    Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine ten valent (PCV 10) was introduced into Nigeria in three phases. Phase 3 introduction started in August 2016. However, its impact on pneumonia admissions and mortality among vaccinated Nigerian children has not been determined. Data in the period before PCV-10 introduction (3 August 2013–2 August 2016), and after (3 August 2017–2 August 2020) were retrospectively extracted from the medical charts of eligible patients aged 3–24 months with hospitalized radiological pneumonia at the University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan; National Hospital (NH), Abuja; and Federal Teaching Hospital (FTH), Gombe, allowing for an intervening period of 1 year. Proportions of the patients with hospitalized pneumonia and case fatality rates were determined during both periods. The results were compared using z-test, multiple logistic regression analysis and p < .05 was considered significant. Adjusted pneumonia hospitalization rates between the two periods increased at the NH Abuja (10.7% vs 14.6%); decreased at the UCH, Ibadan (8.7% vs 6.9%); and decreased at the FTH, Gombe (28.5% vs 18.9%). Case fatality rates decreased across all the sites during the post-PCV introduction period: NH Abuja, from 6.6% to 4.4% (p = .106); FTH, Gombe, 11.7% to 7.7% (p = .477); and UCH, Ibadan, 2.0% to 0% (p = .045); but only significant at Ibadan. Overall, proportion of hospitalized pneumonia cases decreased after 3 years of PCV 10 introduction into the National Immunization Programme in Nigeria. The case fatality rate during post-PCV 10 introduction decreased at all the three sites, but this difference was significant at the UCH, Ibadan
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