The problem of shot selection in basketball

In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this paper, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot by considering a simple theoretical model of the shot selection process, in which the quality of shot opportunities generated by the offense is assumed to fall randomly within a uniform distribution. I derive an answer to the question "how likely must the shot be to go in before the player should take it?", and show that this "lower cutoff" for shot quality $f$ depends crucially on the number $n$ of shot opportunities remaining (say, before the shot clock expires), with larger $n$ demanding that only higher-quality shots should be taken. The function $f(n)$ is also derived in the presence of a finite turnover rate and used to predict the shooting rate of an optimal-shooting team as a function of time. This prediction is compared to observed shooting rates from the National Basketball Association (NBA), and the comparison suggests that NBA players tend to wait too long before shooting and undervalue the probability of committing a turnover.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures; comparison to NBA data adde

Double quantum dot turnstile as an electron spin entangler

We study the conditions for a double quantum dot system to work as a reliable electron spin entangler, and the efficiency of a beam splitter as a detector for the resulting entangled electron pairs. In particular, we focus on the relative strengths of the tunneling matrix elements, the applied bias and gate voltage, the necessity of time-dependent input/output barriers, and the consequence of considering wavepacket states for the electrons as they leave the double dot to enter the beam splitter. We show that a double quantum dot turnstile is, in principle, an efficient electron spin entangler or entanglement filter because of the exchange coupling between the dots and the tunable input/output potential barriers, provided certain conditions are satisfied in the experimental set-up.Comment: published version; minor error correcte

Gene content evolution in the arthropods

Arthropods comprise the largest and most diverse phylum on Earth and play vital roles in nearly every ecosystem. Their diversity stems in part from variations on a conserved body plan, resulting from and recorded in adaptive changes in the genome. Dissection of the genomic record of sequence change enables broad questions regarding genome evolution to be addressed, even across hyper-diverse taxa within arthropods. Using 76 whole genome sequences representing 21 orders spanning more than 500 million years of arthropod evolution, we document changes in gene and protein domain content and provide temporal and phylogenetic context for interpreting these innovations. We identify many novel gene families that arose early in the evolution of arthropods and during the diversification of insects into modern orders. We reveal unexpected variation in patterns of DNA methylation across arthropods and examples of gene family and protein domain evolution coincident with the appearance of notable phenotypic and physiological adaptations such as flight, metamorphosis, sociality, and chemoperception. These analyses demonstrate how large-scale comparative genomics can provide broad new insights into the genotype to phenotype map and generate testable hypotheses about the evolution of animal diversity

The impact of a decision aid about heart disease prevention on patients' discussions with their doctor and their plans for prevention: a pilot randomized trial

BACKGROUND: Low utilization of effective coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention strategies may be due to many factors, but chief among them is the lack of patient involvement in prevention decisions. We undertook this study to test the effectiveness of an individually-tailored, computerized decision aid about CHD on patients' discussions with their doctor and their plans for CHD prevention. METHODS: We conducted a pilot randomized trial in a convenience sample of adults with no previous history of cardiovascular disease to test the effectiveness of an individually-tailored, computerized decision aid about CHD prevention against a risk factor list that patients could present to their doctor. RESULTS: We enrolled 75 adults. Mean age was 53. 59% were female, 73% white, and 23% African-American. 66% had some college education. 43% had a 10-year CHD risk of 0–5%, 25% a risk of 6–10%, 24% a risk of 11–20%, and 5% a risk of > 20%. 78% had at least one option to reduce their CHD risk, but only 45% accurately identified the strategies best supported by evidence. 41 patients received the decision aid, 34 received usual care. In unadjusted analysis, the decision aid increased the proportion of patients who discussed CHD risk reduction with their doctor from 24% to 40% (absolute difference 16%; 95% CI -4% to +37%) and increased the proportion who had a specific plan to reduce their risk from 24% to 37% (absolute difference 13%; 95% CI -7% to +34%). In pre-post testing, the decision aid also appeared to increase the proportion of patients with plans to intervene on their CHD risk (absolute increase ranging from 21% to 47% for planned medication use and 5% to 16% for planned behavioral interventions). CONCLUSION: Our study confirms patients' limited knowledge about their CHD risk and effective risk reduction options and provides preliminary evidence that an individually-tailored decision aid about CHD prevention might be expected to increase patients' discussions about CHD prevention with their doctor and their plans for CHD risk reduction. These findings should be replicated in studies with a larger sample size and patients at overall higher risk of CHD. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0031597

Skill execution and sleep deprivation: effects of acute caffeine or creatine supplementation - a randomized placebo-controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We investigated the effects of sleep deprivation with or without acute supplementation of caffeine or creatine on the execution of a repeated rugby passing skill.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Ten elite rugby players completed 10 trials on a simple rugby passing skill test (20 repeats per trial), following a period of familiarisation. The players had between 7-9 h sleep on 5 of these trials and between 3-5 h sleep (deprivation) on the other 5. At a time of 1.5 h before each trial, they undertook administration of either: placebo tablets, 50 or 100 mg/kg creatine, 1 or 5 mg/kg caffeine. Saliva was collected before each trial and assayed for salivary free cortisol and testosterone.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sleep deprivation with placebo application resulted in a significant fall in skill performance accuracy on both the dominant and non-dominant passing sides (p < 0.001). No fall in skill performance was seen with caffeine doses of 1 or 5 mg/kg, and the two doses were not significantly different in effect. Similarly, no deficit was seen with creatine administration at 50 or 100 mg/kg and the performance effects were not significantly different. Salivary testosterone was not affected by sleep deprivation, but trended higher with the 100 mg/kg creatine dose, compared to the placebo treatment (p = 0.067). Salivary cortisol was elevated (p = 0.001) with the 5 mg/kg dose of caffeine (vs. placebo).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Acute sleep deprivation affects performance of a simple repeat skill in elite athletes and this was ameliorated by a single dose of either caffeine or creatine. Acute creatine use may help to alleviate decrements in skill performance in situations of sleep deprivation, such as transmeridian travel, and caffeine at low doses appears as efficacious as higher doses, at alleviating sleep deprivation deficits in athletes with a history of low caffeine use. Both options are without the side effects of higher dose caffeine use.</p

GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS WITH OHMIC RESISTIVITY AND AMBIPOLAR DIFFUSION

Protoplanetary disks are believed to accrete onto their central T Tauri star because of magnetic stresses. Recently published shearing box simulations indicate that Ohmic resistivity, ambipolar diffusion and the Hall effect all play important roles in disk evolution. In the presence of a vertical magnetic field, the disk remains laminar between 1-5au, and a magnetocentrifugal disk wind forms that provides an important mechanism for removing angular momentum. Questions remain, however, about the establishment of a true physical wind solution in the shearing box simulations because of the symmetries inherent in the local approximation. We present global MHD simulations of protoplanetary disks that include Ohmic resistivity and ambipolar diffusion, where the time-dependent gas-phase electron and ion fractions are computed under FUV and X-ray ionization with a simplified recombination chemistry. Our results show that the disk remains laminar, and that a physical wind solution arises naturally in global disk models. The wind is sufficiently efficient to explain the observed accretion rates. Furthermore, the ionization fraction at intermediate disk heights is large enough for magneto-rotational channel modes to grow and subsequently develop into belts of horizontal field. Depending on the ionization fraction, these can remain quasi-global, or break-up into discrete islands of coherent field polarity. The disk models we present here show a dramatic departure from our earlier models including Ohmic resistivity only. It will be important to examine how the Hall effect modifies the evolution, and to explore the influence this has on the observational appearance of such systems, and on planet formation and migration.Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Transcriptome Analysis of the Vernalization Response in Barley (Hordeum vulgare) Seedlings

Temperate cereals, such as wheat (Triticum spp.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), respond to prolonged cold by becoming more tolerant of freezing (cold acclimation) and by becoming competent to flower (vernalization). These responses occur concomitantly during winter, but vernalization continues to influence development during spring. Previous studies identified VERNALIZATION1 (VRN1) as a master regulator of the vernalization response in cereals. The extent to which other genes contribute to this process is unclear. In this study the Barley1 Affymetrix chip was used to assay gene expression in barley seedlings during short or prolonged cold treatment. Gene expression was also assayed in the leaves of plants after prolonged cold treatment, in order to identify genes that show lasting responses to prolonged cold, which might contribute to vernalization-induced flowering. Many genes showed altered expression in response to short or prolonged cold treatment, but these responses differed markedly. A limited number of genes showed lasting responses to prolonged cold treatment. These include genes known to be regulated by vernalization, such as VRN1 and ODDSOC2, and also contigs encoding a calcium binding protein, 23-KD jasmonate induced proteins, an RNase S-like protein, a PR17d secretory protein and a serine acetyltransferase. Some contigs that were up-regulated by short term cold also showed lasting changes in expression after prolonged cold treatment. These include COLD REGULATED 14B (COR14B) and the barley homologue of WHEAT COLD SPECIFIC 19 (WSC19), which were expressed at elevated levels after prolonged cold. Conversely, two C-REPEAT BINDING FACTOR (CBF) genes showed reduced expression after prolonged cold. Overall, these data show that a limited number of barley genes exhibit lasting changes in expression after prolonged cold treatment, highlighting the central role of VRN1 in the vernalization response in cereals

Colony-level differences in the scaling rules governing wood ant compound eye structure

Differential organ growth during development is essential for adults to maintain the correct proportions and achieve their characteristic shape. Organs scale with body size, a process known as allometry that has been studied extensively in a range of organisms. Such scaling rules, typically studied from a limited sample, are assumed to apply to all members of a population and/or species. Here we study scaling in the compound eyes of workers of the wood ant, Formica rufa, from different colonies within a single population. Workers' eye area increased with body size in all the colonies showing a negative allometry. However, both the slope and intercept of some allometric scaling relationships differed significantly among colonies. Moreover, though mean facet diameter and facet number increased with body size, some colonies primarily increased facet number whereas others increased facet diameter, showing that the cellular level processes underlying organ scaling differed among colonies. Thus, the rules that govern scaling at the organ and cellular levels can differ even within a single population