A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN\u27S POPULATION

経済学 / EconomicsObtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability　distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.JEL Classification Codes: J1, C5

Die Weltwirtschaft im Wandel: Symposium 1975

Seit einigen Jahren verstärkt sich der Eindruck, daß die Weltwirtschaft in einem raschen Wandel begriffen ist. Die Entwicklungsländer fordern eine neue Weltwirtschaftsordnung. Auf die weltweite Hochkonjunktur ist eine scharfe und recht lange anhaltende Rezession gefolgt; aber noch immer dominieren inflationäre Tendenzen. Den Konjunktureinbruch überlagert hat die Vervielfachung des Ölpreises Ende 1973. Sie wurde von vielen Beobachtern als Beginn einer Phase mit zunehmendem Rohstoffmangel und nie gekannten Ungleichgewichten in den Zahlungsbilanzen gedeutet. Von den vielfach geäußerten Befürchtungen haben sich manche als übertrieben erwiesen; denn viele Schwierigkeiten konnte der Markt viel besser als erwartet und ziemlich geräuschlos bewältigen. Gleichwohl erscheint es geraten, die alten und die neuen Probleme der Weltwirtschaft ständig zu beobachten. Vom 23. -27. Juni, traf sich in Kiel eine Gruppe unabhängiger Ökonomen aus Japan, Nordamerika und der Europäischen Gemeinschaft in der Absicht, die Situation der Weltwirtschaft zu analysieren und Vorschläge für wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene auszuarbeiten. Das Institut für Weltwirtschaft war Gastgeber. Das Kieler Symposium ist ein Glied in einer Reihe trilateraler Konferenzen über weltwirtschaftliche Fragen, die von der Brookings Institution in Washington, dem Japan Economic Research Center in Tokio und dem Institut für Weltwirtschaft gemeinsam veranstaltet werden. Die Ergebnisse werden jeweils in englischer, japanischer und deutscher Sprache veröffentlicht; frühere Berichte in der deutschen Fassung sind als Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge Nr. 31 "Welthandel und Strukturanpassung in den Industrieländern" und Nr. 36 "Weltrohstoffversorgung: Konflikt oder Kooperation?" erschienen. --

Current Performance and On-Going Improvements of the 8.2 m Subaru Telescope

An overview of the current status of the 8.2 m Subaru Telescope constructed and operated at Mauna Kea, Hawaii, by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan is presented. The basic design concept and the verified performance of the telescope system are described. Also given are the status of the instrument package offered to the astronomical community, the status of operation, and some of the future plans. The status of the telescope reported in a number of SPIE papers as of the summer of 2002 are incorporated with some updates included as of 2004 February. However, readers are encouraged to check the most updated status of the telescope through the home page, http://subarutelescope.org/index.html, and/or the direct contact with the observatory staff.Comment: 18 pages (17 pages in published version), 29 figures (GIF format), This is the version before the galley proo

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

INFRASTUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIAN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper analyzes the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth in Asian developing countries relying on an augmented Solow growth model with infrastructure. Using fixed effect model in estimating the data from year 1986-2011, the findings exhibit that generally all infrastructure sectors (road, rail lines, electricity production, telephone, and mobile phone) has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the introduction of interaction dummies between regions and physical infrastructure indicators give some important insight regarding infrastructure and growth by region. Infrastructure in New Industrialized Economies (NIEs) countries appears to have highest impact on NIEs� growth, followed by South Asia (SA) and Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) countries. However, the results also indicate that infrastructure cannot promote economic growth alone. Even if the infrastructure level is growing or improving, it does not mean that this is enough to encourage economic growth