Individualised risk assessment for diabetic retinopathy and optimisation of screening intervals: a scientific approach to reducing healthcare costs.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.To validate a mathematical algorithm that calculates risk of diabetic retinopathy progression in a diabetic population with UK staging (R0-3; M1) of diabetic retinopathy. To establish the utility of the algorithm to reduce screening frequency in this cohort, while maintaining safety standards.The cohort of 9690 diabetic individuals in England, followed for 2 years. The algorithms calculated individual risk for development of preproliferative retinopathy (R2), active proliferative retinopathy (R3A) and diabetic maculopathy (M1) based on clinical data. Screening intervals were determined such that the increase in risk of developing certain stages of retinopathy between screenings was the same for all patients and identical to mean risk in fixed annual screening. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and area under the curve calculated to estimate the prediction capability.The algorithm predicts the occurrence of the given diabetic retinopathy stages with area under the curve =80% for patients with type II diabetes (CI 0.78 to 0.81). Of the cohort 64% is at less than 5% risk of progression to R2, R3A or M1 within 2 years. By applying a 2 year ceiling to the screening interval, patients with type II diabetes are screened on average every 20 months, which is a 40% reduction in frequency compared with annual screening.The algorithm reliably identifies patients at high risk of developing advanced stages of diabetic retinopathy, including preproliferative R2, active proliferative R3A and maculopathy M1. Majority of patients have less than 5% risk of progression between stages within a year and a small high-risk group is identified. Screening visit frequency and presumably costs in a diabetic retinopathy screening system can be reduced by 40% by using a 2 year ceiling. Individualised risk assessment with 2 year ceiling on screening intervals may be a pragmatic next step in diabetic retinopathy screening in UK, in that safety is maximised and cost reduced by about 40%.Icelandic Research Counci

Individual risk assessment and information technology to optimise screening frequency for diabetic retinopathy.

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field.AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to reduce the frequency of diabetic eye-screening visits, while maintaining safety, by using information technology and individualised risk assessment to determine screening intervals. METHODS: A mathematical algorithm was created based on epidemiological data on risk factors for diabetic retinopathy. Through a website, www.risk.is , the algorithm receives clinical data, including type and duration of diabetes, HbA(1c) or mean blood glucose, blood pressure and the presence and grade of retinopathy. These data are used to calculate risk for sight-threatening retinopathy for each individual's worse eye over time. A risk margin is defined and the algorithm recommends the screening interval for each patient with standardised risk of developing sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) within the screening interval. We set the risk margin so that the same number of patients develop STR within the screening interval with either fixed annual screening or our individualised screening system. The database for diabetic retinopathy at the Department of Ophthalmology, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, was used to empirically test the efficacy of the algorithm. Clinical data exist for 5,199 patients for 20 years and this allows testing of the algorithm in a prospective manner. RESULTS: In the Danish diabetes database, the algorithm recommends screening intervals ranging from 6 to 60 months with a mean of 29 months. This is 59% fewer visits than with fixed annual screening. This amounts to 41 annual visits per 100 patients. CONCLUSION: Information technology based on epidemiological data may facilitate individualised determination of screening intervals for diabetic eye disease. Empirical testing suggests that this approach may be less expensive than conventional annual screening, while not compromising safety. The algorithm determines individual risk and the screening interval is individually determined based on each person's risk profile. The algorithm has potential to save on healthcare resources and patients' working hours by reducing the number of screening visits for an ever increasing number of diabetic patients in the world

Atrial fibrillation is associated with reduced brain volume and cognitive function independent of cerebral infarcts.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been associated with cognitive decline independent of stroke, suggesting additional effects of AF on the brain. We aimed to assess the association between AF and brain function and structure in a general elderly population.This is a cross-sectional analysis of 4251 nondemented participants (mean age, 76 ± 5 years) in the population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study. Medical record data were collected for the presence, subtype, and time from first diagnosis of AF; 330 participants had AF. Brain volume measurements, adjusted for intracranial volume, and presence of cerebral infarcts were determined with magnetic resonance imaging. Memory, speed of processing, and executive function composites were calculated from a cognitive test battery. In a multivariable linear regression model, adjustments were made for demographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and cerebral infarcts.Participants with AF had lower total brain volume compared with those without AF (P<0.001). The association was stronger with persistent/permanent than paroxysmal AF and with increased time from the first diagnosis of the disease. Of the brain tissue volumes, AF was associated with lower volume of gray and white matter hyperintensities (P<0.001 and P = 0.008, respectively), but not of white matter hyperintensities (P = 0.49). Participants with AF scored lower on tests of memory.AF is associated with smaller brain volume, and the association is stronger with increasing burden of the arrhythmia. These findings suggest that AF has a cumulative negative effect on the brain independent of cerebral infarcts.Landspitali National University Hospital of Iceland Science Fund Helga Jonsdottir and Sigvaldi Kristjansson Memorial Fund National Institutes of Health/N01-AG-1-2100 National Institute on Aging Intramural Research Program Icelandic Heart Association Althingi (the Icelandic Parliament

Hundreds of variants clustered in genomic loci and biological pathways affect human height

Most common human traits and diseases have a polygenic pattern of inheritance: DNA sequence variants at many genetic loci influence the phenotype. Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified more than 600 variants associated with human traits, but these typically explain small fractions of phenotypic variation, raising questions about the use of further studies. Here, using 183,727 individuals, we show that hundreds of genetic variants, in at least 180 loci, influence adult height, a highly heritable and classic polygenic trait. The large number of loci reveals patterns with important implications for genetic studies of common human diseases and traits. First, the 180 loci are not random, but instead are enriched for genes that are connected in biological pathways (P = 0.016) and that underlie skeletal growth defects (P < 0.001). Second, the likely causal gene is often located near the most strongly associated variant: in 13 of 21 loci containing a known skeletal growth gene, that gene was closest to the associated variant. Third, at least 19 loci have multiple independently associated variants, suggesting that allelic heterogeneity is a frequent feature of polygenic traits, that comprehensive explorations of already-discovered loci should discover additional variants and that an appreciable fraction of associated loci may have been identified. Fourth, associated variants are enriched for likely functional effects on genes, being over-represented among variants that alter amino-acid structure of proteins and expression levels of nearby genes. Our data explain approximately 10% of the phenotypic variation in height, and we estimate that unidentified common variants of similar effect sizes would increase this figure to approximately 16% of phenotypic variation (approximately 20% of heritable variation). Although additional approaches are needed to dissect the genetic architecture of polygenic human traits fully, our findings indicate that GWA studies can identify large numbers of loci that implicate biologically relevant genes and pathways.

Association Between Interstitial Lung Abnormalities and All-Cause Mortality.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.Interstitial lung abnormalities have been associated with lower 6-minute walk distance, diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, and total lung capacity. However, to our knowledge, an association with mortality has not been previously investigated.To investigate whether interstitial lung abnormalities are associated with increased mortality.Prospective cohort studies of 2633 participants from the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; computed tomographic [CT] scans obtained September 2008-March 2011), 5320 from the AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility; recruited January 2002-February 2006), 2068 from the COPDGene Study (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; recruited November 2007-April 2010), and 1670 from ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints; between December 2005-December 2006).Interstitial lung abnormality status as determined by chest CT evaluation.All-cause mortality over an approximate 3- to 9-year median follow-up time. Cause-of-death information was also examined in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort.Interstitial lung abnormalities were present in 177 (7%) of the 2633 participants from FHS, 378 (7%) of 5320 from AGES-Reykjavik, 156 (8%) of 2068 from COPDGene, and in 157 (9%) of 1670 from ECLIPSE. Over median follow-up times of approximately 3 to 9 years, there were more deaths (and a greater absolute rate of mortality) among participants with interstitial lung abnormalities when compared with those who did not have interstitial lung abnormalities in the following cohorts: 7% vs 1% in FHS (6% difference [95% CI, 2% to 10%]), 56% vs 33% in AGES-Reykjavik (23% difference [95% CI, 18% to 28%]), and 11% vs 5% in ECLIPSE (6% difference [95% CI, 1% to 11%]). After adjustment for covariates, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a higher risk of death in the FHS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7 [95% CI, 1.1 to 6.5]; P = .03), AGES-Reykjavik (HR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4]; P < .001), COPDGene (HR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8]; P = .01), and ECLIPSE (HR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0]; P = .02) cohorts. In the AGES-Reykjavik cohort, the higher rate of mortality could be explained by a higher rate of death due to respiratory disease, specifically pulmonary fibrosis.In 4 separate research cohorts, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality. The clinical implications of this association require further investigation.National Institutes of Health (NIH) T32 HL007633 Icelandic Research Fund 141513-051 Landspitali Scientific Fund A-2015-030 National Cancer Institute grant 1K23CA157631 NIH K08 HL097029 R01 HL113264 R21 HL119902 K25 HL104085 R01 HL116931 R01 HL116473 K01 HL118714 R01 HL089897 R01 HL089856 N01-AG-1-2100 HHSN27120120022C P01 HL105339 P01 HL114501 R01 HL107246 R01 HL122464 R01 HL111024 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study contract N01-HC-2519.5 GlaxoSmithKline NCT00292552 5C0104960 National Institute on Aging (NIA) grant 27120120022C NIA Intramural Research Program, Hjartavernd (the Icelandic Heart Association) Althingi (the Icelandic Parliament) NIA 27120120022

Analysing the Large Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Icelandic Population Aged 25-74 between the Years 1981 and 2006

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s. We examined how much of the decrease between 1981 and 2006 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in cardiovascular risk factors. METHODOLOGY: The previously validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was applied to the Icelandic population. The data sources were official statistics, national quality registers, published trials and meta-analyses, clinical audits and a series of national population surveys. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Between 1981 and 2006, CHD mortality rates in Iceland decreased by 80% in men and women aged 25 to 74 years, which resulted in 295 fewer deaths in 2006 than if the 1981 rates had persisted. Incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) decreased by 66% and resulted in some 500 fewer incident MI cases per year, which is a major determinant of possible deaths from MI. Based on the IMPACT model approximately 73% (lower and upper bound estimates: 54%-93%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to risk factor reductions: cholesterol 32%; smoking 22%; systolic blood pressure 22%, and physical inactivity 5% with adverse trends for diabetes (-5%), and obesity (-4%). Approximately 25% (lower and upper bound estimates: 8%-40%) of the mortality decrease was attributable to treatments in individuals: secondary prevention 8%; heart failure treatments 6%; acute coronary syndrome treatments 5%; revascularisation 3%; hypertension treatments 2%, and statins 0.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Almost three quarters of the large CHD mortality decrease in Iceland between 1981 and 2006 was attributable to reductions in major cardiovascular risk factors in the population. These findings emphasize the value of a comprehensive prevention strategy that promotes tobacco control and a healthier diet to reduce incidence of MI and highlights the potential importance of effective, evidence based medical treatments

Changes in Dietary Fat Intake and Projections for Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Sweden: A Simulation Study.

OBJECTIVE: In Sweden, previous favourable trends in blood cholesterol levels have recently levelled off or even increased in some age groups since 2003, potentially reflecting changing fashions and attitudes towards dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA). We aimed to examine the potential effect of different SFA intake on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in 2025. METHODS: We compared the effect on future CHD mortality of two different scenarios for fat intake a) daily SFA intake decreasing to 10 energy percent (E%), and b) daily SFA intake rising to 20 E%. We assumed that there would be moderate improvements in smoking (5%), salt intake (1g/day) and physical inactivity (5% decrease) to continue recent, positive trends. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario which assumed that recent mortality declines continue, approximately 5,975 CHD deaths might occur in year 2025. Anticipated improvements in smoking, dietary salt intake and physical activity, would result in some 380 (-6.4%) fewer deaths (235 in men and 145 in women). In combination with a mean SFA daily intake of 10 E%, a total of 810 (-14%) fewer deaths would occur in 2025 (535 in men and 275 in women). If the overall consumption of SFA rose to 20 E%, the expected mortality decline would be wiped out and approximately 20 (0.3%) additional deaths might occur. CONCLUSION: CHD mortality may increase as a result of unfavourable trends in diets rich in saturated fats resulting in increases in blood cholesterol levels. These could cancel out the favourable trends in salt intake, smoking and physical activity

A large multi-country outbreak of monkeypox across 41 countries in the WHO European Region, 7 March to 23 August 2022

Following the report of a non-travel-associated cluster of monkeypox cases by the United Kingdom in May 2022, 41 countries across the WHO European Region have reported 21,098 cases and two deaths by 23 August 2022. Nowcasting suggests a plateauing in case notifications. Most cases (97%) are MSM, with atypical rash-illness presentation. Spread is mainly through close contact during sexual activities. Few cases are reported among women and children. Targeted interventions of at-risk groups are needed to stop further transmission. © 2022 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.The authors affiliated with the World Health Organization (WHO) are alone responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of the WHO. The co-author is a fellow of the ECDC Fellowship Programme, supported financially by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). The views and opinions expressed herein do not state or reflect those of ECDC. ECDC is not responsible for the data and information collation and analysis and cannot be held liable for conclusions or opinions drawn

Externalizing, internalizing and fostering commitment: the case of born-global firms in emerging economies

This paper examines the HR practices of mature born-global firms from twenty-nine emerging economies. Through an examination of large scale survey data the paper questions the extent to which firm size impacts the employment of temporary workers, the employment of skilled workers and the extent of employee training. Findings suggest that as firm size increases the use of temporary workers decreases, the number of skilled workers increases and the number of employees receiving training also increases. The paper highlights how born-global firms are able to shift away from externalized, market-based approaches towards more internalized, commitment-based approaches in order to survive, adapt and grow