A Bayesian partition modelling approach to resolve spatial variability in climate records from borehole temperature inversion

International audienceCollections of suitably chosen borehole profiles can be used to infer large-scale trends in ground-surface temperature (GST) histories for the past few hundred years. These reconstructions are based on a large database of carefully selected borehole temperature measurements from around the globe. Since non-climatic thermal influences are difficult to identify, representative temperature histories are derived by averaging individual reconstructions to minimize the influence of these perturbing factors. This may lead to three potentially important drawbacks: the net signal of non-climatic factors may not be zero, meaning that the average does not reflect the best estimate of past climate; the averaging over large areas restricts the useful amount of more local climate change information available; and the inversion methods used to reconstruct the past temperatures at each site must be mathematically identical and are therefore not necessarily best suited to all data sets. In this work, we avoid these issues by using a Bayesian partition model (BPM), which is computed using a trans-dimensional form of aMarkov chainMonte Carlo algorithm. This then allows the number and spatial distribution of different GST histories to be inferred from a given set of borehole data by partitioning the geographical area into discrete partitions. Profiles that are heavily influenced by non-climatic factors will be partitioned separately. Conversely, profiles with climatic information, which is consistent with neighbouring profiles, will then be inferred to lie in the same partition. The geographical extent of these partitions then leads to information on the regional extent of the climatic signal. In this study, three case studies are described using synthetic and real data. The first demonstrates that the Bayesian partition model method is able to correctly partition a suite of synthetic profiles according to the inferred GST history. In the second, more realistic case, a series of temperature profiles are calculated using surface air temperatures of a global climate model simulation. In the final case, 23 real boreholes from the United Kingdom, previously used for climatic reconstructions, are examined and the results compared with a local instrumental temperature series and the previous estimate derived from the same borehole data. The results indicate that the majority (17) of the 23 boreholes are unsuitable for climatic reconstruction purposes, at least without including other thermal processes in the forward model

Genetic overlap between psychotic experiences in the community across age and with psychiatric disorders

This study explores the degree to which genetic influences on psychotic experiences are stable across adolescence and adulthood, and their overlap with psychiatric disorders. Genome-wide association results were obtained for adolescent psychotic experiences and negative symptom traits (N = 6297–10,098), schizotypy (N = 3967–4057) and positive psychotic experiences in adulthood (N = 116,787–117,794), schizophrenia (N = 150,064), bipolar disorder (N = 41,653), and depression (N = 173,005). Linkage disequilibrium score regression was used to estimate genetic correlations. Implicated genes from functional and gene-based analyses were compared. Mendelian randomization was performed on trait pairs with significant genetic correlations. Results indicated that subclinical auditory and visual hallucinations and delusions of persecution during adulthood were significantly genetically correlated with schizophrenia (rg = 0.27–0.67) and major depression (rg = 0.41–96) after correction for multiple testing. Auditory and visual subclinical hallucinations were highly genetically correlated (rg = 0.95). Cross-age genetic correlations for psychotic experiences were not significant. Gene mapping and association analyses revealed 14 possible genes associated with psychotic experiences that overlapped across age for psychotic experiences or between psychotic experiences and psychiatric disorders. Mendelian randomization indicated bidirectional associations between auditory and visual hallucinations in adults but did not support causal relationships between psychotic experiences and psychiatric disorders. These findings indicate that psychotic experiences in adulthood may be more linked genetically to schizophrenia and major depression than psychotic experiences in adolescence. Our study implicated specific genes that are associated with psychotic experiences across development, as well as genes shared between psychotic experiences and psychiatric disorders

Numerical simulation of floods from multiple sources using an adaptive anisotropic unstructured mesh method

The coincidence of two or more extreme events (precipitation and storm surge, for example) may lead to severe floods in coastal cities. It is important to develop powerful numerical tools for improved flooding predictions (especially over a wide range of spatial scales - metres to many kilometres) and assessment of joint influence of extreme events. Various numerical models have been developed to perform high-resolution flood simulations in urban areas. However, the use of high-resolution meshes across the whole computational domain may lead to a high computational burden. More recently, an adaptive isotropic unstructured mesh technique has been first introduced to urban flooding simulations and applied to a simple flooding event observed as a result of flow exceeding the capacity of the culvert during the period of prolonged or heavy rainfall. Over existing adaptive mesh refinement methods (AMR, locally nested static mesh methods), this adaptive unstructured mesh technique can dynamically modify (both, coarsening and refining the mesh) and adapt the mesh to achieve a desired precision, thus better capturing transient and complex flow dynamics as the flow evolves. In this work, the above adaptive mesh flooding model based on 2D shallow water equations (named as Floodity) has been further developed by introducing (1) an anisotropic dynamic mesh optimization technique (anisotropic-DMO); (2) multiple flooding sources (extreme rainfall and sea-level events); and (3) a unique combination of anisotropic-DMO and high-resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM) data. It has been applied to a densely urbanized area within Greve, Denmark. Results from MIKE 21 FM are utilized to validate our model. To assess uncertainties in model predictions, sensitivity of flooding results to extreme sea levels, rainfall and mesh resolution has been undertaken. The use of anisotropic-DMO enables us to capture high resolution topographic features (buildings, rivers and streets) only where and when is needed, thus providing improved accurate flooding prediction while reducing the computational cost. It also allows us to better capture the evolving flow features (wetting-drying fronts)

Identification of genes and gene pathways associated with major depressive disorder by integrative brain analysis of rat and human prefrontal cortex transcriptomes

Despite moderate heritability estimates, progress in uncovering the molecular substrate underpinning major depressive disorder (MDD) has been slow. In this study, we used prefrontal cortex (PFC) gene expression from a genetic rat model of MDD to inform probe set prioritization in PFC in a human post-mortem study to uncover genes and gene pathways associated with MDD. Gene expression differences between Flinders sensitive (FSL) and Flinders resistant (FRL) rat lines were statistically evaluated using the RankProd, non-parametric algorithm. Top ranking probe sets in the rat study were subsequently used to prioritize orthologous selection in a human PFC in a case?control post-mortem study on MDD from the Stanley Brain Consortium. Candidate genes in the human post-mortem study were then tested against a matched control sample using the RankProd method. A total of 1767 probe sets were differentially expressed in the PFC between FSL and FRL rat lines at (qless than or equal to0.001). A total of 898 orthologous probe sets was found on Affymetrix?s HG-U95A chip used in the human study. Correcting for the number of multiple, non-independent tests, 20 probe sets were found to be significantly dysregulated between human cases and controls at qless than or equal to0.05. These probe sets tagged the expression profile of 18 human genes (11 upregulated and seven downregulated). Using an integrative rat?human study, a number of convergent genes that may have a role in pathogenesis of MDD were uncovered. Eighty percent of these genes were functionally associated with a key stress response signalling cascade, involving NF-?B (nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells), AP-1 (activator protein 1) and ERK/MAPK, which has been systematically associated with MDD, neuroplasticity and neurogenesis

Lead contamination in Australian game meat

Lead-based ammunition (gunshot and bullets) frequently leaves small lead fragments embedded in the meat of wild-shot game animals. Australia produces several commercial game meat products from wild animals harvested with lead-based ammunition and has a growing population of recreational hunters. However, no studies have previously investigated the frequency of lead fragments or lead concentrations in Australian game meat. We examined 133 Australian minced game meat items of four types for evidence of lead contamination. Samples were meat from kangaroos (Macropus and Osphranter spp.; n=36) and Bennett’s wallabies (Notamacropus rufogriseus; n=28) sold for human consumption, and deer (‘venison’; multiple spp.; n=32) and stubble quail (Coturnix pectoralis; n=37) harvested for private consumption by recreational hunters. All packages were studied by digital radiography to detect the presence of radio-dense fragments, assumed to be lead fragments from ammunition. Visible fragments were absent in commercially available kangaroo products, but were present in 4%, 28% and 35% of wallaby, venison and quail, respectively. Mean meat lead concentrations (mg/kg wet weight) were 0.01 ± 0.01 for kangaroo, 0.02 ± 0.01 for wallaby, 0.12 ± 0.07 for venison, and 1.76 ± 3.76 for quail. The Australian food standards threshold for livestock meat (0.1 mg/kg w.w.) was not exceeded by any kangaroo or wallaby products but was exceeded by 53% and 86% of venison and quail, respectively. Radiography only detected 35% of samples that were above the food safety threshold. While average lead concentrations in commercially available macropod (kangaroo and wallaby) meat were low, those in recreationally harvested game meat may pose health risks for hunters and associated consumers.publishedVersio

Experiences of living with chronic back pain: The physical disabilities

Purpose. Back-related functional limitations are largely assessed using lists of activities, each scored on a yes/no basis and the scores then summed. This provides little information about how chronic back pain (CBP) patients live with their condition. This study describes the consequences of living day-to-day with CBP and documents the 'insider' accounts of its impact on daily life. Method. Unstructured interviews, using the 'Framework' approach with topic guide, were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Subjects were sampled for age, sex, ethnicity and occupation from new referrals with back pain to a rheumatology outpatient clinic. Eleven subjects (5 male, 6 female) were interviewed either in English (n = 9) or their preferred language (n = 2). Interviews were read in-depth twice to identify the topics. Data were extracted in phrases and sentences using thematic content analysis. Results. Four themes emerged: sleep/rest, mobility, independence and leisure. All subjects reported issues about sleep and rest, nine about mobility, seven about independence and six on leisure. Most descriptions concerned loss and limitation in daily life. Strategies for coping with sleep disruption and physical limitations were described. Conclusions. Subjects provided graphic 'in-depth' descriptions of experiences living with CBP every day; expressed regret at the loss of capabilities and distress at the functional consequences of those losses. Facilitating 'adjustment' to 'loss' may be more helpful than inferring the potential for a life free of pain as a result of therapeutic endeavours

Lead contamination in Australian game meat

Lead-based ammunition (gunshot and bullets) frequently leaves small lead fragments embedded in the meat of wild-shot game animals. Australia produces several commercial game meat products from wild animals harvested with lead-based ammunition and has a growing population of recreational hunters. However, no studies have previously investigated the frequency of lead fragments or lead concentrations in Australian game meat. We examined 133 Australian minced game meat items of four types for evidence of lead contamination. Samples were meat from kangaroos (Macropus and Osphranter spp.; n=36) and Bennett's wallabies (Notamacropus rufogriseus; n=28) sold for human consumption, and deer ('venison'; multiple spp.; n=32) and stubble quail (Coturnix pectoralis; n=37) harvested for private consumption by recreational hunters. All packages were studied by digital radiography to detect the presence of radio-dense fragments, assumed to be lead fragments from ammunition. Visible fragments were absent in commercially available kangaroo products, but were present in 4%, 28% and 35% of wallaby, venison and quail, respectively. Mean meat lead concentrations (mg/kg wet weight) were 0.01 +/- 0.01 for kangaroo, 0.02 +/- 0.01 for wallaby, 0.12 +/- 0.07 for venison, and 1.76 +/- 3.76 for quail. The Australian food standards threshold for livestock meat (0.1 mg/kg w.w.) was not exceeded by any kangaroo or wallaby products but was exceeded by 53% and 86% of venison and quail, respectively. Radiography only detected 35% of samples that were above the food safety threshold. While average lead concentrations in commercially available macropod (kangaroo and wallaby) meat were low, those in recreationally harvested game meat may pose health risks for hunters and associated consumers

A Survey to Guide the Emerging Role of Allied Health Teams in a Regional Tertiary Hospital Emergency Department

ABSTRACT Purpose: A multidisciplinary allied health team has worked in The Townsville Hospital Emergency Department for seven years. Patients are referred to the allied health team by medical and nursing staff with the aim of reducing patient admission and improving patient outcomes. However, the type and number of referrals received by the allied health team suggest there is a lack of detailed interdisciplinary knowledge by the referrers. Therefore, the Emergency Department Allied Health Team surveyed other emergency department health professionals to ascertain their knowledge of allied health roles. The results will be used to develop education sessions to fill gaps in knowledge. Methods: A cross-sectional survey consisting of 22 true/false statements and demographic questions was developed by the Emergency Department Allied Health Team. Questions described some of the common triggers for referral to physiotherapy, occupational therapy, social work, and pharmacy staff in the emergency department at the Townsville Hospital. The survey was distributed opportunistically to nursing, medical and physician assistant staff at handover or education sessions. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the data and comparisons used chi squared tests. Results: The response rate for the survey was 63% (n=154), including 52 doctors (65%), 95 (59%) nursing staff, 3 physician assistants (100%), and 4 who did not state their discipline. Preferred responses were low for questions about occupational therapy’s ability to do home visits up to four weeks post emergency department discharge (37.7%), physiotherapists’ necessity to perform mobility assessments (24.7%), identifying APINCH acronym as mnemonic for high risk drugs (35.7%) and the correct application of “close the gap” prescriptions (27.9%). Staff with more experience and prescribers were more likely to give the preferred response. Conclusions: Some gaps exist in doctors’, nurses’, and physician assistants’ knowledge of the roles of allied health in an emergency department. The knowledge gap decreases as staff experience in emergency departments increases. Therefore, for the allied health team in our emergency department to work at full scope of practice, these knowledge gaps need to be addressed. Our challenge now is to provide sustainable education on the role of allied health in a busy emergency department full of shift working and rotating staff being pulled by a myriad of contrasting priorities

Toward a complete theory for predicting inclusive deuteron breakup away from stability

We present an account of the current status of the theoretical treatment of inclusive $(d,p)$ reactions in the breakup-fusion formalism, pointing to some applications and making the connection with current experimental capabilities. Three independent implementations of the reaction formalism have been recently developed, making use of different numerical strategies. The codes also originally relied on two different but equivalent representations, namely the prior (Udagawa-Tamura, UT) and the post (Ichimura-Austern-Vincent, IAV) representations. The different implementations have been benchmarked, and then applied to the Ca isotopic chain. The neutron-Ca propagator is described in the Dispersive Optical Model (DOM) framework, and the interplay between elastic breakup (EB) and non-elastic breakup (NEB) is studied for three Ca isotopes at two different bombarding energies. The accuracy of the description of different reaction observables is assessed by comparing with experimental data of $(d,p)$ on $^{40,48}$Ca. We discuss the predictions of the model for the extreme case of an isotope ($^{60}$Ca) currently unavailable experimentally, though possibly available in future facilities (nominally within production reach at FRIB). We explore the use of $(d,p)$ reactions as surrogates for $(n,\gamma)$ processes, by using the formalism to describe the compound nucleus formation in a $(d,p\gamma)$ reaction as a function of excitation energy, spin, and parity. The subsequent decay is then computed within a Hauser-Feshbach formalism. Comparisons between the $(d,p\gamma)$ and $(n,\gamma)$ induced gamma decay spectra are discussed to inform efforts to infer neutron captures from $(d,p\gamma)$ reactions. Finally, we identify areas of opportunity for future developments, and discuss a possible path toward a predictive reaction theory