Exploring the Implications of Monetary Policy Normalisation for Irish Mortgage Arrears. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 2019.

The current level of the monetary policy rate in the Eurozone is low both by international and historical standards and will likely rise over the coming years. In this Article we consider what the impact of a rise in ECB policy rates would mean for the Irish mortgage market. First, we examine the structure of the Irish mortgage market in terms of interest rate contract types and explore the link between the mortgage rate and the policy rate. Second, we draw out the results of policy modelling linking arrears and interest rates using a model put forward in Slaymaker et al. (2019). We then use this model to provide some further scenarios exploring the impact of interest rate rises on the arrears rate for particular groups of Irish households. Our findings suggest a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate would lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in new missed mortgage payments. While households are in a better economic position to withstand policy rate increases given the recovery in the labour market and in house prices, rate rises would lead to payments rising faster than long-term income growth. Younger, lower income households who are at an earlier stage in their mortgage contract are more at risk, as are households on tracker interest rates who have a contractual pass-through from the policy rate to the lending rate

Integrated regional vulnerability assessment of government services to climate change

© Emerald Group Publishing Limited. Purpose – This paper aims to describe the conduct and outcomes of an integrated assessment (IA) of the vulnerability to climate change of government service provision at regional scale in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment was co-designed with regional public sector managers to address their needs for an improved understanding of regional vulnerabilities to climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach – The study used IA of climate change impacts through a complex adaptive systems approach incorporating social learning and stakeholder-led research processes. Workshops were conducted with stakeholders from NSW government agencies, state-owned corporations and local governments representing the tourism, water, primary industries, human settlements, emergency management, human health, infrastructure and natural landscapes sectors. Participants used regional socioeconomic profiling and climate projections to consider the impacts on and the need to adapt community service provision to future climate. Findings – Many sectors are currently experiencing difficulty coping with changes in regional demographics and structural adjustment in the economy. Climate change will result in further impacts on already vulnerable systems in the forms of resource conflicts between expanded human settlements, the infrastructure that supports them and the environment (particularly for water); increased energy costs; and declining agricultural production and food security. Originality/value – This paper describes the application of meta-analysis in climate change policy research and frames climate change as a problem of environmental pollution and an issue of development and social equity

Discrimination of Disposable Vapes from Batteries Using the Magnetic Polarizability Tensor

Disposable vapes pose an environmental and fire hazard to waste streams when disposed of incorrectly. The lithium battery inside disposable vapes can produce an exothermic reaction when the lithium inside the battery is inadvertently exposed to air and moisture. New sensing technologies may be needed to screen waste streams for these vape hazards and this paper considers the potential of inductive techniques based on the magnetic polarisability tensor (MPT) representation. The MPT can be described by three complex components based on a target regardless of orientation. In this paper, the rank 2 MPT is measured and calculated for 10 vapes and 37 batteries for 28 logarithmically spaced frequencies from 119 Hz to 95.4 KHz. The 168 features of each object are reduced down to 2 features using principal component analysis (PCA) and linear discriminant analysis. The reduction of the features allows for the visualisation and grouping of the objects. Three clear groups of objects can be seen when the maximum feature scales the measurement and a two-component PCA transform is applied. The first group is the vapes, which are grouped away from the other batteries. The second is the batteries, which are grouped by size. Finally, zinc batteries are grouped away from the rest due to their case material.<br/

Observing Strategies for the Detection of Jupiter Analogs

To understand the frequency, and thus the formation and evolution, of planetary systems like our own solar system, it is critical to detect Jupiter-like planets in Jupiter-like orbits. For long-term radial-velocity monitoring, it is useful to estimate the observational effort required to reliably detect such objects, particularly in light of severe competition for limited telescope time. We perform detailed simulations of observational campaigns, maximizing the realism of the sampling of a set of simulated observations. We then compute the detection limits for each campaign to quantify the effect of increasing the number of observational epochs and varying their time coverage. We show that once there is sufficient time baseline to detect a given orbital period, it becomes less effective to add further time coverage-rather, the detectability of a planet scales roughly as the square root of the number of observations, independently of the number of orbital cycles included in the data string. We also show that no noise floor is reached, with a continuing improvement in detectability at the maximum number of observations N = 500 tested here.Peer reviewe

High-speed single-molecule tracking of CXCL13 in the B-Follicle

Soluble factors are an essential means of communication between cells and their environment. However, many molecules readily interact with extracellular matrix components, giving rise to multiple modes of diffusion. The molecular quantification of diffusion in situ is thus a challenging imaging frontier, requiring very high spatial and temporal resolution. Overcoming this methodological barrier is key to understanding the precise spatial patterning of the extracellular factors that regulate immune function. To address this, we have developed a high-speed light microscopy system capable of millisecond sampling in ex vivo tissue samples and sub-millisecond sampling in controlled in vitro samples to characterize molecular diffusion in a range of complex microenvironments. We demonstrate that this method outperforms competing tools for determining molecular mobility of fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) and fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) for evaluation of diffusion. We then apply this approach to study the chemokine CXCL13, a key determinant of lymphoid tissue architecture, and B-cell mediated immunity. Super-resolution single-molecule tracking of fluorescently labeled CCL19 and CXCL13 in collagen matrix was used to assess the heterogeneity of chemokine mobility behaviors, with results indicating an immobile fraction and a mobile fraction for both molecules, with distinct diffusion rates of 8.4 ± 0.2 µm2s-1 and 6.2 ± 0.3 µm2s-1 respectively. To better understand mobility behaviors in situ we analyzed CXCL13-AF647 diffusion in murine lymph node tissue sections and observed both an immobile fraction and a mobile fraction with a diffusion coefficient of 6.6 ± 0.4 µm2s 1, suggesting that mobility within the follicle is also multimodal. In quantitatively studying mobility behaviors at the molecular level, we have obtained an increased understanding of CXCL13 bioavailability within the follicle. Our high-speed single-molecule tracking approach affords a novel perspective from which to understand the mobility of soluble factors relevant to the immune system

Slowing down atomic diffusion in subdwarf B stars: mass loss or turbulence?

Subdwarf B stars show chemical peculiarities that cannot be explained by diffusion theory alone. Both mass loss and turbulence have been invoked to slow down atomic diffusion in order to match observed abundances. The fact that some sdB stars show pulsations gives upper limits on the amount of mass loss and turbulent mixing allowed. Consequently, non-adiabatic asteroseismology has the potential to decide which process is responsible for the abundance anomalies. We compute for the first time seismic properties of sdB models with atomic diffusion included consistently during the stellar evolution. The diffusion equations with radiative forces are solved for H, He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Fe and Ni. We examine the effects of various mass-loss rates and mixed surface masses on the abundances and mode stability. It is shown that the mass-loss rates needed to simulate the observed He abundances (10^{-14}<=Mdot [Msun/yr]<=10^{-13}) are not consistent with observed pulsations. We find that for pulsations to be driven the rates should be Mdot<=10^{-15} Msun/yr. On the other hand, weak turbulent mixing of the outer 10^{-6} Msun can explain the He abundance anomalies while still allowing pulsations to be driven. The origin of the turbulence remains unknown but the presence of pulsations gives tight constraints on the underlying turbulence model.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in MNRA

Exomoon simulations

We introduce and describe our newly developed code that simulates light curves and radial velocity curves for arbitrary transiting exoplanets with a satellite. The most important feature of the program is the calculation of radial velocity curves and the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in such systems. We discuss the possibilities for detecting the exomoons taking the abilities of Extremely Large Telescopes into account. We show that satellites may be detected also by their RM effect in the future, probably using less accurate measurements than promised by the current instrumental developments. Thus, RM effect will be an important observational tool in the exploration of exomoons.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures with 9 figure panels, accepted by EM&

Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat-Dependent, Biofilm-Specific Death of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Mediated by Increased Expression of Phage-Related Genes

The clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated (CRISPR/Cas) system is an adaptive immune system present in many archaea and bacteria. CRISPR/Cas systems are incredibly diverse, and there is increasing evidence of CRISPR/Cas systems playing a role in cellular functions distinct from phage immunity. Previously, our laboratory reported one such alternate function in which the type 1-F CRISPR/Cas system of the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain UCBPP-PA14 (abbreviated as P. aeruginosa PA14) inhibits both biofilm formation and swarming motility when the bacterium is lysogenized by the bacteriophage DMS3. In this study, we demonstrated that the presence of just the DMS3 protospacer and the protospacer-adjacent motif (PAM) on the P. aeruginosa genome is necessary and sufficient for this CRISPR-dependent loss of these group behaviors, with no requirement of additional DMS3 sequences. We also demonstrated that the interaction of the CRISPR system with the DMS3 protospacer induces expression of SOS-regulated phage-related genes, including the well-characterized pyocin operon, through the activity of the nuclease Cas3 and subsequent RecA activation. Furthermore, our data suggest that expression of the phage-related genes results in bacterial cell death on a surface due to the inability of the CRISPR-engaged strain to downregulate phage-related gene expression, while these phage-related genes have minimal impact on growth and viability under planktonic conditions. Deletion of the phage-related genes restores biofilm formation and swarming motility while still maintaining a functional CRISPR/Cas system, demonstrating that the loss of these group behaviors is an indirect effect of CRISPR self-targeting

Follow-up observations of pulsating subdwarf B stars: Multisite campaigns on PG 1618+563B and PG 0048+091

We present follow-up observations of pulsating subdwarf B (sdB) stars as part of our efforts to resolve the pulsation spectra for use in asteroseismological analyses. This paper reports on multisite campaigns of the pulsating sdB stars PG 1618+563B and PG 0048+091. Data were obtained from observatories placed around the globe for coverage from all longitudes. For PG 1618+563B, our five-site campaign uncovered a dichotomy of pulsation states: Early during the campaign the amplitudes and phases (and perhaps frequencies) were quite variable while data obtained late in the campaign were able to fully resolve five stable pulsation frequencies. For PG 0048+091, our five-site campaign uncovered a plethora of frequencies with short pulsation lifetimes. We find them to have observed properties consistent with stochastically excited oscillations, an unexpected result for subdwarf B stars. We discuss our findings and their impact on subdwarf B asteroseismology.Comment: 50 pages including 17 figures and 10 tables. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Planetary detection limits taking into account stellar noise. II. Effect of stellar spot groups on radial-velocities

The detection of small mass planets with the radial-velocity technique is now confronted with the interference of stellar noise. HARPS can now reach a precision below the meter-per-second, which corresponds to the amplitudes of different stellar perturbations, such as oscillation, granulation, and activity. Solar spot groups induced by activity produce a radial-velocity noise of a few meter-per-second. The aim of this paper is to simulate this activity and calculate detection limits according to different observational strategies. Based on Sun observations, we reproduce the evolution of spot groups on the surface of a rotating star. We then calculate the radial-velocity effect induced by these spot groups as a function of time. Taking into account oscillation, granulation, activity, and a HARPS instrumental error of 80 cm/s, we simulate the effect of different observational strategies in order to efficiently reduce all sources of noise. Applying three measurements per night of 10 minutes every three days, 10 nights a month seems the best tested strategy. Depending on the level of activity considered, from log(R'_HK)= -5 to -4.75, this strategy would allow us to find planets of 2.5 to 3.5 Earth masses in the habitable zone of a K1V dwarf. Using Bern's model of planetary formation, we estimate that for the same range of activity level, 15 to 35 % of the planets between 1 and 5 Earth masses and with a period between 100 and 200 days should be found with HARPS. A comparison between the performance of HARPS and ESPRESSO is also emphasized by our simulations. Using the same optimized strategy, ESPRESSO could find 1.3 Earth mass planets in the habitable zone of early-K dwarfs. In addition, 80 % of planets with mass between 1 and 5 Earth masses and with a period between 100 and 200 days could be detected.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in A&