Dealing with Time in Health Economic Evaluation: Methodological Issues and Recommendations for Practice

Time is an important aspect of health economic evaluation, as the timing and duration of clinical events, healthcare interventions and their consequences all affect estimated costs and effects. These issues should be reflected in the design of health economic models. This article considers three important aspects of time in modelling: (1) which cohorts to simulate and how far into the future to extend the analysis; (2) the simulation of time, including the difference between discrete-time and continuous-time models, cycle lengths, and converting rates and probabilities; and (3) discounting future costs and effects to their present values. We provide a methodological overview of these issues and make recommendations to help inform both the conduct of cost-effectiveness analyses and the interpretation of their results. For choosing which cohorts to simulate and how many, we suggest analysts carefully assess potential reasons for variation in cost effectiveness between cohorts and the feasibility of subgroup-specific recommendations. For the simulation of time, we recommend using short cycles or continuous-time models to avoid biases and the need for half-cycle corrections, and provide advic

Examining solution and solid state composition for the solution mediated polymorphic transformation of carbamazepine and piracetam

peer-reviewedSolution mediated polymorphic transformations (SMPT) of the pharmaceutical compounds carbamazepine and piracetam have been investigated. Seeded transformation experiments were performed, and the solution concentration was monitored by in situ infra-red spectroscopy using a calibration free method. Solid samples were also taken over time, and the percentage of metastable and stable polymorphic phases were determined using off line quantitative powder X-ray diffraction analysis. Solution and solid state data were compared for each compound. In the case of carbamazepine, the SMPT from FI to FIII was identified as being controlled by the growth of the stable FIII polymorph. For piracetam, the SMPT was also identified as being controlled by growth of the stable polymorph, but with a more considerable induction time for nucleation of the stable phase. This paper demonstrates how the rate determining steps of the SMPT can be identified if both solution and solid phase data are recorded. The results are compared with other studies reported in the literature and rationalized into four principal scenarios

Inflammation and Immune-Related Candidate Gene Associations with Acute Lung Injury Susceptibility and Severity: A Validation Study

Introduction: Common variants in genes related to inflammation, innate immunity, epithelial cell function, and angiogenesis have been reported to be associated with risks for Acute Lung Injury (ALI) and related outcomes. We tested whether previously-reported associations can be validated in an independent cohort at risk for ALI. Methods: We identified 37 genetic variants in 27 genes previously associated with ALI and related outcomes. We prepared allelic discrimination assays for 12 SNPs from 11 genes with MAF>0.05 and genotyped these SNPs in Caucasian subjects from a cohort of critically ill patients meeting criteria for the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) followed for development of ALI, duration of mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death. We tested for associations using additive and recessive genetic models. Results: Among Caucasian subjects with SIRS (n = 750), we identified a nominal association between rs2069832 in IL6 and ALI susceptibility (OR$_{adj}$ 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04–2.48, P = 0.03). In a sensitivity analysis limiting ALI cases to those who qualified for the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), rs61330082 in NAMPT was nominally associated with risk for ARDS. In terms of ALI outcomes, SNPs in MBL2 (rs1800450) and IL8 (rs4073) were nominally associated with fewer ventilator-free days (VFDs), and SNPs in NFE2L2 (rs6721961) and NAMPT (rs61330082) were nominally associated with 28-day mortality. The directions of effect for these nominal associations were in the same direction as previously reported but none of the associations survived correction for multiple hypothesis testing. Conclusion: Although our primary analyses failed to statistically validate prior associations, our results provide some support for associations between SNPs in IL6 and NAMPT and risk for development of lung injury and for SNPs in IL8, MBL2, NFE2L2 and NAMPT with severity in ALI outcomes. These associations provide further evidence that genetic factors in genes related to immunity and inflammation contribute to ALI pathogenesis

Issues and potential solutions when capturing health data in rural clinics in South Africa

This paper highlights the data and information required by various International bodies, including WHO, PEPFAR, World Bank and the South African Government regarding HIV and its associated programmes and comorbidities. It explores the current collection of data in South African rural clinics and reports on the results from in-depth interviews with nurses regarding the burden of data collection and the perceptions and attitudes to electronic solutions including smart phones and tablet computers.</span

A prospective study of placental growth factor in twin pregnancy and development of a dichorionic twin pregnancy specific reference range

Objective: To develop a dichorionic twin pregnancy specific reference range for placental growth factor (PlGF), and to compare gestation‐specific placental growth factor levels in twin pregnancies later complicated by pre‐eclampsia, hypertensive disorder of pregnancy or fetal growth restriction with control pregnancies. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Single large tertiary maternity unit in Ireland. Population or Sample: Women with a twin pregnancy. Methods: Consenting pregnant women, across a variety of gestations, had a single blood sample taken at one time‐point only during their pregnancy. The plasma was initially biobanked and PlGF was measured later in batches using the point of care Triage® PlGF test. Main outcome measures: Development of pre‐eclampsia, hypertensive disorder of pregnancy or fetal growth restriction. Results: Placental growth factor levels in uncomplicated dichorionic twin pregnancies were significantly lower in the women who later developed pre‐eclampsia than in the controls at all gestational intervals. In those that later developed any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy, median PlGF was lower only in those recruited before 24 weeks of gestation, whereas in infants with a customised birthweight below the third centile, PlGF was lower only in those sampled after 24 weeks of gestation. Conclusions: Placental growth factor levels in twin pregnancy differ significantly between those women with a pregnancy that will later be complicated by pre‐eclampsia and those that will not. This difference is present many weeks before clinical signs or symptoms of disease are present. Using cross‐sectional values from uncomplicated twin pregnancies, we have developed a dichorionic twin pregnancy specific reference range for PlGF

Morphological and Physiological Characteristics of Ruptured Plaques in Native Arteries and Neoatherosclerotic Segments: An OCT-Based and Computational Fluid Dynamics Study.

Background Intravascular imaging has been used to assess the morphology of lesions causing an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in native vessels (NV) and identify differences between plaques that ruptured (PR) and caused an event and those that ruptured without clinical manifestations. However, there is no data about the morphological and physiological characteristics of neoatherosclerotic plaques that ruptured (PR-NA) which constitute a common cause of stent failure. Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from patients admitted with an acute myocardial infarction that had optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging of the culprit vessel before balloon pre-dilation. OCT pullbacks showing PR were segmented at every 0.4 mm. The extent of the formed cavity, lipid and calcific tissue, thrombus, and macrophages were measured, and the fibrous cap thickness (FCT) and the incidence of micro-channels and cholesterol crystals were reported. These data were used to reconstruct a representative model of the native and neoatherosclerotic lesion geometry that was processed with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to estimate the distribution of the endothelial shear stress and plaque structural stress. Result Eighty patients were included in the present analysis: 56 had PR in NV (PR-NV group) and 24 in NA segments (PR-NA group). The PR-NV group had a larger minimum lumen area (2.93 ± 2.03 vs. 2.00 ± 1.26 mm2, p = 0.015) but similar lesion length and area stenosis compared to PR-NA group. The mean FCT (186 ± 65 vs. 232 ± 80 μm, p = 0.009) and the lipid index was smaller (16.7 ± 13.8 vs. 25.9 ± 14.1, p = 0.008) while the of calcific index (8.3 ± 9.5 vs. 2.2 ± 1.6%, p = 0.002) and the incidence of micro-channels (41.4 vs. 12.5%, p = 0.013) was higher in the PR-NV group. Conversely, there was no difference in the incidence of cholesterol crystals, thrombus burden or the location of the rupture site between groups. CFD analysis revealed higher maximum endothelial shear stress (19.1 vs. 11.0 Pa) and lower maximum plaque structural stress (38.8 vs. 95.1 kPa) in the PR-NA compared to the PR-NV model. Conclusion We reported significant morphological and physiological differences between culprit ruptured plaques in native and stented segments. Further research is needed to better understand the causes of these differences and the mechanisms regulating neoatherosclerotic lesion destabilization

Cardiac Screening of Young Athletes: a Practical Approach to Sudden Cardiac Death Prevention.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We aim to report on the current status of cardiovascular screening of athletes worldwide and review the up-to-date evidence for its efficacy in reducing sudden cardiac death in young athletes. RECENT FINDINGS: A large proportion of sudden cardiac death in young individuals and athletes occurs during rest with sudden arrhythmic death syndrome being recognised as the leading cause. The international recommendations for ECG interpretation have reduced the false-positive ECG rate to 3% and reduced the cost of screening by 25% without compromising the sensitivity to identify serious disease. There are some quality control issues that have been recently identified including the necessity for further training to guide physicians involved in screening young athletes. Improvements in our understanding of young sudden cardiac death and ECG interpretation guideline modification to further differentiate physiological ECG patterns from those that may represent underlying disease have significantly improved the efficacy of screening to levels that may make screening more attractive and feasible to sporting organisations as a complementary strategy to increased availability of automated external defibrillators to reduce the overall burden of young sudden cardiac death

Gut microbiota composition correlates with diet and health in the elderly

Alterations in intestinal microbiota composition are associated with several chronic conditions, including obesity and inflammatory diseases. The microbiota of older people displays greater inter-individual variation than that of younger adults. Here we show that the faecal microbiota composition from 178 elderly subjects formed groups, correlating with residence location in the community, day-hospital, rehabilitation or in long-term residential care. However, clustering of subjects by diet separated them by the same residence location and microbiota groupings. The separation of microbiota composition significantly correlated with measures of frailty, co-morbidity, nutritional status, markers of inflammation and with metabolites in faecal water. The individual microbiota of people in long-stay care was significantly less diverse than that of community dwellers. Loss of community-associated microbiota correlated with increased frailty. Collectively, the data support a relationship between diet, microbiota and health status, and indicate a role for diet-driven microbiota alterations in varying rates of health decline upon ageing

Cerebral microbleeds and intracranial haemorrhage risk in patients anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation after acute ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (CROMIS-2):a multicentre observational cohort study

Background: Cerebral microbleeds are a potential neuroimaging biomarker of cerebral small vessel diseases that are prone to intracranial bleeding. We aimed to determine whether presence of cerebral microbleeds can identify patients at high risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage when anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Methods: Our observational, multicentre, prospective inception cohort study recruited adults aged 18 years or older from 79 hospitals in the UK and one in the Netherlands with atrial fibrillation and recent acute ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, treated with a vitamin K antagonist or direct oral anticoagulant, and followed up for 24 months using general practitioner and patient postal questionnaires, telephone interviews, hospital visits, and National Health Service digital data on hospital admissions or death. We excluded patients if they could not undergo MRI, had a definite contraindication to anticoagulation, or had previously received therapeutic anticoagulation. The primary outcome was symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage occurring at any time before the final follow-up at 24 months. The log-rank test was used to compare rates of intracranial haemorrhage between those with and without cerebral microbleeds. We developed two prediction models using Cox regression: first, including all predictors associated with intracranial haemorrhage at the 20% level in univariable analysis; and second, including cerebral microbleed presence and HAS-BLED score. We then compared these with the HAS-BLED score alone. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02513316. Findings: Between Aug 4, 2011, and July 31, 2015, we recruited 1490 participants of whom follow-up data were available for 1447 (97%), over a mean period of 850 days (SD 373; 3366 patient-years). The symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage rate in patients with cerebral microbleeds was 9·8 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 4·0–20·3) compared with 2·6 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 1·1–5·4) in those without cerebral microbleeds (adjusted hazard ratio 3·67, 95% CI 1·27–10·60). Compared with the HAS-BLED score alone (C-index 0·41, 95% CI 0·29–0·53), models including cerebral microbleeds and HAS-BLED (0·66, 0·53–0·80) and cerebral microbleeds, diabetes, anticoagulant type, and HAS-BLED (0·74, 0·60–0·88) predicted symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage significantly better (difference in C-index 0·25, 95% CI 0·07–0·43, p=0·0065; and 0·33, 0·14–0·51, p=0·00059, respectively). Interpretation: In patients with atrial fibrillation anticoagulated after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleed presence is independently associated with symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage risk and could be used to inform anticoagulation decisions. Large-scale collaborative observational cohort analyses are needed to refine and validate intracranial haemorrhage risk scores incorporating cerebral microbleeds to identify patients at risk of net harm from oral anticoagulation. Funding: The Stroke Association and the British Heart Foundation