Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

Epidemiology of hepatitis B-associated hepatocellular carcinoma in Victoria

Background Chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and cirrhosis are major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The proportion and characteristics of cases with cirrhosis are not well documented. Aim Our aim was to compare demographic, viral and tumour characteristics of HBV‐associated HCC in an Australian cohort, in patients with and without cirrhosis. Methods Existing HCC databases at six Melbourne teaching hospitals were reviewed for cases associated with HBV. Patient demographics, HBV viral characteristics, presence of cirrhosis, serum alpha‐fetoprotein and tumour size were assessed. Mode of diagnosis was recorded through surveillance or symptoms, and treatment was either palliative, percutaneous or surgical. Results We identified 197 cases of HBV‐related HCC. The mean age was 57.9 ± 12.9 years; 83% were male, and 55.3% and 35.3% were of Asian and European descent respectively. Of 168 patient with available data, 146 (87%) had cirrhosis versus 22 (13%) without. Patients with cirrhosis tended to be older (median 60 vs 52 years, P = 0.078). Asian patients were more likely to have HCC without cirrhosis than Europeans (17% vs 6%, P = 0.04). There were no other differences identified between cirrhotic and non‐cirrhotic patients. Thirty‐four per cent of patients had tumours greater than 5 cm at diagnosis, and 47% were diagnosed after presenting with symptoms. Twelve patients with HBV‐HCC were outside current screening guidelines. Conclusion Most patients in Melbourne with HBV‐associated HCC have cirrhosis. HCC characteristics in non‐cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients were similar. The large number of patients detected through symptoms and with large tumours reinforces the need for vigilance in screening

Macrophage activation marker soluble CD163 may predict disease progression in hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Tumor associated macrophages are present in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and associated with a poor prognosis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the levels and dynamics of soluble (s)CD163, a specific macrophage activation marker, in patients with HCC. Methods: In a cohort from Australia, we studied 109 HCC patients, 116 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD), and 52 healthy controls. We examined associations between baseline sCD163 and parameters of HCC severity as well as overall and progression-free survival. In a cohort of 42 Danish HCC patients, we measured sCD163 at baseline and 1, 4 and 12 weeks after ablative treatment. Results: In the Australian cohort, median sCD163 was similarly increased in HCC (5.6[interquartile range 3.5–8.0] mg/L) and CLD (6.1[3.6–9.6] mg/L) patients as compared to controls (2.0[1.5–2.7] mg/L, p < 0.001). sCD163 correlated with Child-Pugh and MELD scores in both HCC and CLD patients. Patients with high sCD163 levels had shorter progression-free survival (p < 0.001), but not overall survival (p = 0.15). In the Danish cohort, patients with HCC progression at 12 weeks had an increase in sCD163. There was no association between sCD163 and HCC size, number, vascular invasion or metastasis in any of the cohorts. Conclusions: We confirmed increased sCD163 levels in CLD and HCC patients associated with Child-Pugh and MELD scores and portal hypertension, but not with HCC size and number, or metastasis. As a novel finding, baseline sCD163 appeared to predict a rapid HCC progression, as sCD163 increased during follow-up in HCC patients who showed progression

Circulating CD147 predicts mortality in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and Aim: The glycoprotein CD147 has a role in tumor progression, is readily detectable in the circulation, and is abundantly expressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Advanced HCC patients are a heterogeneous group with some individuals having dismal survival. The aim of this study was to examine circulating soluble CD147 levels as a prognostic marker in HCC patients. Methods: CD147 was measured in 277 patients (110 HCC, 115 chronic liver disease, and 52 non‐liver disease). Clinical data included etiology, tumor progression, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and treatment response. Patients with HCC were stratified into two groups based upon the 75th percentile of CD147 levels (24 ng/mL). Results: CD147 in HCC correlated inversely with poor survival (P = 0.031). Increased CD147 predicted poor survival in BCLC stages C and D (P = 0.045), and CD147 levels >24 ng/mL predicted a significantly diminished 90‐day and 180‐day survival time (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1–63.2; P = 0.0045 and HR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.2–12.6; P = 0.028, respectively). In BCLC stage C, CD147 predicted prognosis; levels >24 ng/mL were associated with a median survival of 1.5 months compared with 6.5 months with CD147 levels ≤24 ng/mL (P = 0.03). CD147 also identified patients with a poor prognosis independent from treatment frequency, modality, and tumor size. Conclusions: Circulating CD147 is an independent marker of survival in advanced HCC. CD147 requires further evaluation as a potential new prognostic measure in HCC to identify patients with advanced disease who have a poor prognosis