Burden of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus disease and potential effect of different immunisation strategies: a modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis for England.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines and prophylactic antibodies against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are in development and likely to be available in the next 5-10 years. The most efficient way to use these products when they become available is an important consideration for public health decision makers. METHODS: We performed a multivariate regression analysis to estimate the burden of RSV in children younger than 5 years in England (UK), a representative high-income temperate country, and used these results to assess the potential effect of different RSV immunisation strategies (targeting vaccination for infants, or pregnant women, or prophylactic antibodies for neonates). We did a cost-effectiveness analysis for these strategies, implemented either separately or concurrently, and assessed the effect of restricting vaccination to certain months of the year. FINDINGS: We estimated that RSV is responsible for 12 primary care consultations (95% CI 11·9-12·1) and 0·9 admissions to hospital annually per 100 children younger than 5 years (95% CI 0·89-0·90), with the major burden occurring in infants younger than 6 months. The most cost-effective strategy was to selectively immunise all children born before the start of the RSV season (maximum price of £220 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 208-232] per vaccine, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year). The maximum price per fully protected person that should be paid for the infant, newborn, and maternal strategies without seasonal restrictions was £192 (95% UI 168-219), £81 (76-86), and £54 (51-57), respectively. INTERPRETATION: Nearly double the number of primary care consultations, and nearly five times the number of admissions to hospital occurred with RSV compared with influenza. RSV vaccine and antibody strategies are likely to be cost-effective if they can be priced below around £200 per fully protected person. A seasonal vaccination strategy is likely to provide the most direct benefits. Herd effects might render a year-round infant vaccination strategy more appealing, although it is currently unclear whether such a programme would induce herd effects. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research

House-edge information yields lower subjective chances of winning than equivalent return-to-player percentages : new evidence from support forum participants

Information messages that communicate the average cost of play are a helpful consumer protection tool in gambling. In Australia and the United Kingdom, cost of play information is typically communicated via the “return-to-player” statistic, e.g., “This game has an average percentage payout of 90%.” Through a sample recruited through a gambling support forum (n = 49), this paper reports how house-edge information (e.g., “This game keeps 10% of all money bet on average”) is associated with lower perceived chances of winning, as opposed to equivalent return-to-player information. Accordingly, this study also extends the literature on optimal gambling messaging to a group of support forum users

Risk of venous thromboembolism in children after general surgery

Background/purpose: The purpose of the study was to determine absolute and relative rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following general surgical procedures in children compared to the general population. Methods: We analyzed data from all patients under the age of 18 years in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics from England (2001–2011) undergoing a general surgical procedure and population controls. Crude rates of VTE and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression. Results We identified 15,637 children who had a surgical procedure with 161,594 controls. Six children undergoing surgery had a VTE diagnosed in the year after compared to five children in the population cohort. The overall rate of VTE following surgery was 0.4 per 1000 person years (pyrs) (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15–0.88) compared to 0.04 per 1000 pyrs (95% CI 0.02–0.09) in the population cohort. This represented a 9 fold increase in risk compared to the population cohort (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 8.80; 95% CI 2.59–29.94). Conclusions Children are at increased risk for VTE following general surgical procedures compared to the general population however the absolute risk is small and given this the benefits of thromboprophylaxis need to be balanced against the risk of complications following its use

Creative destruction in science

Drawing on the concept of a gale of creative destruction in a capitalistic economy, we argue that initiatives to assess the robustness of findings in the organizational literature should aim to simultaneously test competing ideas operating in the same theoretical space. In other words, replication efforts should seek not just to support or question the original findings, but also to replace them with revised, stronger theories with greater explanatory power. Achieving this will typically require adding new measures, conditions, and subject populations to research designs, in order to carry out conceptual tests of multiple theories in addition to directly replicating the original findings. To illustrate the value of the creative destruction approach for theory pruning in organizational scholarship, we describe recent replication initiatives re-examining culture and work morality, working parents\u2019 reasoning about day care options, and gender discrimination in hiring decisions. Significance statement It is becoming increasingly clear that many, if not most, published research findings across scientific fields are not readily replicable when the same method is repeated. Although extremely valuable, failed replications risk leaving a theoretical void\u2014 reducing confidence the original theoretical prediction is true, but not replacing it with positive evidence in favor of an alternative theory. We introduce the creative destruction approach to replication, which combines theory pruning methods from the field of management with emerging best practices from the open science movement, with the aim of making replications as generative as possible. In effect, we advocate for a Replication 2.0 movement in which the goal shifts from checking on the reliability of past findings to actively engaging in competitive theory testing and theory building. Scientific transparency statement The materials, code, and data for this article are posted publicly on the Open Science Framework, with links provided in the article

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Impact of infection on proteome-wide glycosylation revealed by distinct signatures for bacterial and viral pathogens

Mechanisms of infection and pathogenesis have predominantly been studied based on differential gene or protein expression. Less is known about posttranslational modifications, which are essential for protein functional diversity. We applied an innovative glycoproteomics method to study the systemic proteome-wide glycosylation in response to infection. The protein site-specific glycosylation was characterized in plasma derived from well-defined controls and patients. We found 3862 unique features, of which we identified 463 distinct intact glycopeptides, that could be mapped to more than 30 different proteins. Statistical analyses were used to derive a glycopeptide signature that enabled significant differentiation between patients with a bacterial or viral infection. Furthermore, supported by a machine learning algorithm, we demonstrated the ability to identify the causative pathogens based on the distinctive host blood plasma glycopeptide signatures. These results illustrate that glycoproteomics holds enormous potential as an innovative approach to improve the interpretation of relevant biological changes in response to infection

Relationship between molecular pathogen detection and clinical disease in febrile children across Europe: a multicentre, prospective observational study

BackgroundThe PERFORM study aimed to understand causes of febrile childhood illness by comparing molecular pathogen detection with current clinical practice.MethodsFebrile children and controls were recruited on presentation to hospital in 9 European countries 2016-2020. Each child was assigned a standardized diagnostic category based on retrospective review of local clinical and microbiological data. Subsequently, centralised molecular tests (CMTs) for 19 respiratory and 27 blood pathogens were performed.FindingsOf 4611 febrile children, 643 (14%) were classified as definite bacterial infection (DB), 491 (11%) as definite viral infection (DV), and 3477 (75%) had uncertain aetiology. 1061 controls without infection were recruited. CMTs detected blood bacteria more frequently in DB than DV cases for N. meningitidis (OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.92-5.99), S. pneumoniae (OR: 3.89, 95% CI: 2.07-7.59), Group A streptococcus (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.13-6.09) and E. coli (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02-6.71). Respiratory viruses were more common in febrile children than controls, but only influenza A (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11-0.46), influenza B (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.37) and RSV (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.36) were less common in DB than DV cases. Of 16 blood viruses, enterovirus (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.72) and EBV (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.90) were detected less often in DB than DV cases. Combined local diagnostics and CMTs respectively detected blood viruses and respiratory viruses in 360 (56%) and 161 (25%) of DB cases, and virus detection ruled-out bacterial infection poorly, with predictive values of 0.64 and 0.68 respectively.InterpretationMost febrile children cannot be conclusively defined as having bacterial or viral infection when molecular tests supplement conventional approaches. Viruses are detected in most patients with bacterial infections, and the clinical value of individual pathogen detection in determining treatment is low. New approaches are needed to help determine which febrile children require antibiotics.FundingEU Horizon 2020 grant 668303

Genomic investigations of unexplained acute hepatitis in children

Since its first identification in Scotland, over 1,000 cases of unexplained paediatric hepatitis in children have been reported worldwide, including 278 cases in the UK1. Here we report an investigation of 38 cases, 66 age-matched immunocompetent controls and 21 immunocompromised comparator participants, using a combination of genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and immunohistochemical methods. We detected high levels of adeno-associated virus 2 (AAV2) DNA in the liver, blood, plasma or stool from 27 of 28 cases. We found low levels of adenovirus (HAdV) and human herpesvirus 6B (HHV-6B) in 23 of 31 and 16 of 23, respectively, of the cases tested. By contrast, AAV2 was infrequently detected and at low titre in the blood or the liver from control children with HAdV, even when profoundly immunosuppressed. AAV2, HAdV and HHV-6 phylogeny excluded the emergence of novel strains in cases. Histological analyses of explanted livers showed enrichment for T cells and B lineage cells. Proteomic comparison of liver tissue from cases and healthy controls identified increased expression of HLA class 2, immunoglobulin variable regions and complement proteins. HAdV and AAV2 proteins were not detected in the livers. Instead, we identified AAV2 DNA complexes reflecting both HAdV-mediated and HHV-6B-mediated replication. We hypothesize that high levels of abnormal AAV2 replication products aided by HAdV and, in severe cases, HHV-6B may have triggered immune-mediated hepatic disease in genetically and immunologically predisposed children