GPS observations of ionospheric TEC variations over Nepal during 22 July 2009 solar eclipse

As the study of ionospheric behavior during various solar activities is an important task, various studies of ionospheric changes during eclipse events have been widely performed in the different regions of the globe. This paper investigates the ionospheric responses to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 over Nepal using the total electron content (TEC) measured by dual-frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The time-averaged Vertical TEC (vTEC) of ten GPS stations from Nepal is analyzed and it is found that the value of ionospheric TEC decreases due to the reduction of ionizing radiation. In addition, the deviation in the TEC value on eclipse day from the mean vTEC value of the top five quietest days is found to lie in the range ~1–5 TECu at those regions which were associated with the partial eclipse shadow. On the other hand, the region with the total eclipse (BRN2 and RMTE) faced ~6–7 TECu on average reduction in the TEC value. Considering that the eclipse of 22 July 2009 occurred just at sunrise in the Nepalese zone, a maximum reduction of about 5 TECu is very significant. Higher deviation in TEC is therefore linked with the path of totality and the obscuration rate. This study reveals that the ionospheric TEC over Nepal was altered by wave-like energy and momentum transport, as well as obscuration of the solar disc due to the partial and total solar eclipse. Furthermore, the cross-correlation results presented similar type signatures of the eclipse-induced ionospheric modification over Nepal. This research work serves a crucial future reference for the comparative study of change of ionospheric TEC variability over the Nepal region during Eclipse event

Clinical Presentation in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients on Regular Haemodialysis Attending in Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital Emergency Services

Background: Chronic kidney disease is increasing day by day and so is condition of renal replacement therapy; mainly hemodialysis. Emergency visit of the patients under maintenance hemodialysis is frequent. The objective of the study is to study clinical parameters of these patients so that in future these deranged parameters can be focused during patient management and decrease their emergency visit. Methods: A prospective cross sectional study was conducted in emergency services of Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital from 1st May 2018 to 31st October 2018 among the adult chronic kidney disease patients under maintenance hemodialysis. Ethical approval was taken from Institutional review board, Institute of medicine, TribhuvanUniversity.Nonprobability sampling method was used. Total of 300 patients were enrolled in the study. Patients’ age, sex, causes, laboratory parameter during emergency visit, need of emergency hemodialysis, and need of blood transfusion were studied. Results: Out of total 300 patients, mean age was 45.64 years (S.D =17.15). 190 (63.3 %) were male and 110(36.70%) were female. 152(50.70%) of patients had hypertension. Diabetes and Glomerulonephritis both had equal prevalence of 63(21%). Mean hemoglobin was 6.52gm% (S.D = 1.93). Mean pH was 7.17 (S.D =0.154). Mean serum potassium and creatinine level were 5.77 mEq/L (S.D =0.76) and 1076.03 mmol/l (S.D =367.25) respectively. Area under the Receiver Operating Curve was 0.660 for potassium and 0.598 for serum creatinine. Conclusions: Causes of chronic kidney disease, decreased hemoglobin level, increased serum creatinine and potassium level and metabolic acidosis are causes of frequent emergency room visit among CKD patients.  So these conditions need to be addressed to decrease emergency visit of these patients. Keywords: chronic kidney disease; emergency presentation; mortality. DOI: http://doi.org/10.3126/jkahs.v2i2.2516

Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins

This study aimed to investigate the influence of hydrological model calibration/validation on discharge projections for three large river basins (the Rhine, Upper Mississippi and Upper Yellow). Three hydrological models (HMs), which have been firstly calibrated against the monthly discharge at the outlet of each basin (simple calibration), were re-calibrated against the daily discharge at the outlet and intermediate gauges under contrast climate conditions simultaneously (enhanced calibration). In addition, the models were validated in terms of hydrological indicators of interest (median, low and high flows) as well as actual evapotranspiration in the historical period. The models calibrated using both calibration methods were then driven by the same bias corrected climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). The hydrological changes of the indicators were represented by the ensemble median, ensemble mean and ensemble weighted means of all combinations of HMs and GCMs under each RCP. The results showed moderate (5–10%) to strong influence (> 10%) of the calibration methods on the ensemble medians/means for the Mississippi, minor to moderate (up to 10%) influence for the Yellow and minor (< 5%) influence for the Rhine. In addition, the enhanced calibration/validation method reduced the shares of uncertainty related to HMs for three indicators in all basins when the strict weighting method was used. It also showed that the successful enhanced calibration had the potential to reduce the uncertainty of hydrological projections, especially when the HM uncertainty was significant after the simple calibration. © 2020, The Author(s)

Variation of Total Electron Content (TEC) in the Quite and Disturbed days and their correlation with Geomagnetic Parameters of Lamjung Station in the year of 2015

Total Electron content is measured using a dual frequency GPS receiver in Lamgung (LMJG) Station located at 84.57° longitude and 28.17° latitude of the year 2015 as it is considered as geo-magnetically active year. In this study, diurnal variation of VTEC has been studied separately for quiet and disturbed days and, for the effective study of the case the PRN wise data of VTEC have been also used. The maximum VTEC is seen from 0700 LT to 1100 LT (LT=UT+5.45). PRN wise VTEC is studied taking the lower bound (LB) and upper bound (UB). The correlation of VTEC with Dst index, Kp index and Solar flux have been studied. Positive correlation has been found in disturbed days with Kp index and solar flux but negative correlation with Dst index. Dst index shows positive correlation in quiet days but Kp index shows negative correlation. BIBECHANA 17(2020) 123-13

Variation of Total Electron Content (TEC) in the Quite and Disturbed days and their correlation with Geomagnetic Parameters of Lamjung Station in the year of 2015

Total Electron content is measured using a dual frequency GPS receiver in Lamgung (LMJG) Station located at 84.57° longitude and 28.17° latitude of the year 2015 as it is considered as geo-magnetically active year. In this study, diurnal variation of VTEC has been studied separately for quiet and disturbed days and, for the effective study of the case the PRN wise data of VTEC have been also used. The maximum VTEC is seen from 0700 LT to 1100 LT (LT=UT+5.45). PRN wise VTEC is studied taking the lower bound (LB) and upper bound (UB). The correlation of VTEC with Dst index, Kp index and Solar flux have been studied. Positive correlation has been found in disturbed days with Kp index and solar flux but negative correlation with Dst index. Dst index shows positive correlation in quiet days but Kp index shows negative correlation. BIBECHANA 17(2020) 123-13

GPS TEC Scintillations and TEC depletion as seen from Hetauda and NAST, Nepal for 2016

We analyzed Global positing System Total Electron Content (GPS-TEC) data of stations Hetauda (27.414 0N and 85.051 0E) and NAST (27.656 0N and 85.327 0E), Nepal which are a part of UNAVCO.We obtained the variation of rate of TEC index (ROTI) and S4 index throughout the year 2016 for the two stations involved for the 32 all the Pseudo-Random Noise (PRN) numbers barring PRN number 4 which was inactive throughout the year. We chooses two stations data which are almost 40 km in distance and correlated the value of ROTI index with ROTI index and S4 index with S4 index and found that the ROTI index of Hetauda is well correlated with ROTI index of NAST with the highest being 94% for PRN 10 and the lowest being -13% for PRN 1. An extremely low correlation between S4 index of Hetauda and S4 index of NAST was observed with the highest correlation being 8% in PRN 3, 32 and the lowest correlation of -15% in PRN 12. BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 87-9

GPS TEC Scintillations and TEC depletion as seen from Hetauda and NAST, Nepal for 2016

We analyzed Global positing System Total Electron Content (GPS-TEC) data of stations Hetauda (27.414 0N and 85.051 0E) and NAST (27.656 0N and 85.327 0E), Nepal which are a part of UNAVCO.We obtained the variation of rate of TEC index (ROTI) and S4 index throughout the year 2016 for the two stations involved for the 32 all the Pseudo-Random Noise (PRN) numbers barring PRN number 4 which was inactive throughout the year. We chooses two stations data which are almost 40 km in distance and correlated the value of ROTI index with ROTI index and S4 index with S4 index and found that the ROTI index of Hetauda is well correlated with ROTI index of NAST with the highest being 94% for PRN 10 and the lowest being -13% for PRN 1. An extremely low correlation between S4 index of Hetauda and S4 index of NAST was observed with the highest correlation being 8% in PRN 3, 32 and the lowest correlation of -15% in PRN 12. BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 87-9

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030