Attribution: how is it relevant for loss and damage policy and practice?

Attribution has become a recurring issue in discussions about Loss and Damage (L&D). In this highly-politicised context, attribution is often associated with responsibility and blame; and linked to debates about liability and compensation. The aim of attribution science, however, is not to establish responsibility, but to further scientific understanding of causal links between elements of the Earth System and society. This research into causality could inform the management of climate-related risks through improved understanding of drivers of relevant hazards, or, more widely, vulnerability and exposure; with potential benefits regardless of political positions on L&D. Experience shows that it is nevertheless difficult to have open discussions about the science in the policy sphere. This is not only a missed opportunity, but also problematic in that it could inhibit understanding of scientific results and uncertainties, potentially leading to policy planning which does not have sufficient scientific evidence to support it. In this chapter, we first explore this dilemma for science-policy dialogue, summarising several years of research into stakeholder perspectives of attribution in the context of L&D. We then aim to provide clarity about the scientific research available, through an overview of research which might contribute evidence about the causal connections between anthropogenic climate change and losses and damages, including climate science, but also other fields which examine other drivers of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Finally, we explore potential applications of attribution research, suggesting that an integrated and nuanced approach has potential to inform planning to avert, minimise and address losses and damages. The key messages are In the political context of climate negotiations, questions about whether losses and damages can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change are often linked to issues of responsibility, blame, and liability. Attribution science does not aim to establish responsibility or blame, but rather to investigate drivers of change. Attribution science is advancing rapidly, and has potential to increase understanding of how climate variability and change is influencing slow onset and extreme weather events, and how this interacts with other drivers of risk, including socio-economic drivers, to influence losses and damages. Over time, some uncertainties in the science will be reduced, as the anthropogenic climate change signal becomes stronger, and understanding of climate variability and change develops. However, some uncertainties will not be eliminated. Uncertainty is common in science, and does not prevent useful applications in policy, but might determine which applications are appropriate. It is important to highlight that in attribution studies, the strength of evidence varies substantially between different kinds of slow onset and extreme weather events, and between regions. Policy-makers should not expect the later emergence of conclusive evidence about the influence of climate variability and change on specific incidences of losses and damages; and, in particular, should not expect the strength of evidence to be equal between events, and between countries. Rather than waiting for further confidence in attribution studies, there is potential to start working now to integrate science into policy and practice, to help understand and tackle drivers of losses and damages, informing prevention, recovery, rehabilitation, and transformation

A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved

Enhanced thylakoid photoprotection can increase yield and canopy radiation use efficiency in rice

High sunlight can raise plant growth rates but can potentially cause cellular damage. The likelihood of deleterious effects is lowered by a sophisticated set of photoprotective mechanisms, one of the most important being the controlled dissipation of energy from chlorophyll within photosystem II (PSII) measured as non-photochemical quenching (NPQ). Although ubiquitous, the role of NPQ in plant productivity remains uncertain because it momentarily reduces the quantum efficiency of photosynthesis. Here we used plants overexpressing the gene encoding a central regulator of NPQ, the protein PsbS, within a major crop species (rice) to assess the effect of photoprotection at the whole canopy scale. We accounted for canopy light interception, to our knowledge for the first time in this context. We show that in comparison to wild-type plants, psbS overexpressors increased canopy radiation use efficiency and grain yield in fluctuating light, demonstrating that photoprotective mechanisms should be altered to improve rice crop productivity

The extreme European summer 2012

The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes

Amifostine reduces the seminiferous epithelium damage in doxorubicin-treated prepubertal rats without improving the fertility status

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Amifostine is an efficient cytoprotector against toxicity caused by some chemotherapeutic drugs. Doxorubicin, a potent anticancer anthracycline, is known to produce spermatogenic damage even in low doses. Although some studies have suggested that amifostine does not confer protection to doxorubicin-induced testicular damage, schedules and age of treatment have different approach depending on the protocol. Thus, we proposed to investigate the potential cytoprotective action of amifostine against the damage provoked by doxorubicin to prepubertal rat testes (30-day-old) by assessing some macro and microscopic morphometric parameters 15, 30 and 60 days after the treatment; for fertility evaluation, quantitative analyses of sperm parameters and reproductive competence in the adult phase were also carried out.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty-day-old male rats were distributed into four groups: Doxorubicin (5 mg/kg), Amifostine (400 mg/kg), Amifostine/Doxorubicin (amifostine 15 minutes before doxorubicin) and Sham Control (0.9% saline solution). "Standard One Way Anova" parametric and "Anova on Ranks" non-parametric tests were applied according to the behavior of the obtained data; significant differences were considered when p < 0.05.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The rats killed 30 and 60 days after doxorubicin treatment showed diminution of seminiferous epithelium height and reduction on the frequency of tubular sections containing at least one type of differentiated spermatogonia; reduction of sperm concentration and motility and an increase of sperm anomalous forms where observed in doxorubicin-treated animals. All these parameters were improved in the Amifostine/Doxorubicin group only when compared to Doxorubicin group. Such reduction, however, still remained below the values obtained from the Sham Control group. Nevertheless, the reproductive competence of doxorubicin-treated rats was not improved by amifostine pre-administration.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results suggest that amifostine promotes a significant reduction of the doxorubicin long-term side effects on the seminiferous epithelium of prepubertal rats, which is reflected in the epidydimal fluid parameters in the adult phase. However, fertility status results suggest that such protection may not be effective against sperm DNA content damage. Further investigation of sperm DNA integrity must be carried out using amifostine and doxorubicin-treated experimental models.</p

Ecological Energetics of an Abundant Aerial Insectivore, the Purple Martin

We thank T. Fagin for help with estimating the seasonal range area occupied by Purple Martins. We thank an anonymous reviewer, Mark Brigham, and J Boyles for their comments on this manuscript.Conceived and designed the experiments: JFK ESB WFF PBC. Performed the experiments: JFK PBC. Analyzed the data: JFK PBC. Wrote the manuscript: JFK ESB WFF PBC. Developed the model in Matlab: JFK PBC.The atmospheric boundary layer and lower free atmosphere, or aerosphere, is increasingly important for human transportation, communication, environmental monitoring, and energy production. The impacts of anthropogenic encroachment into aerial habitats are not well understood. Insectivorous birds and bats are inherently valuable components of biodiversity and play an integral role in aerial trophic dynamics. Many of these insectivores are experiencing range-wide population declines. As a first step toward gaging the potential impacts of these declines on the aerosphere’s trophic system, estimates of the biomass and energy consumed by aerial insectivores are needed. We developed a suite of energetics models for one of the largest and most common avian aerial insectivores in North America, the Purple Martin (Progne subis). The base model estimated that Purple Martins consumed 412 (± 104) billion insects*y-1 with a biomass of 115,860 (± 29,192) metric tonnes*y-1. During the breeding season Purple Martins consume 10.3 (+ 3.0) kg of prey biomass per km3 of aerial habitat, equal to about 36,000 individual insects*km-3. Based on these calculations, the cumulative seasonal consumption of insects*km-3 is greater in North America during the breeding season than during other phases of the annual cycle, however the maximum daily insect consumption*km-3 occurs during fall migration. This analysis provides the first range-wide quantitative estimate of the magnitude of the trophic impact of this large and common aerial insectivore. Future studies could use a similar modeling approach to estimate impacts of the entire guild of aerial insectivores at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. These analyses would inform our understanding of the impact of population declines among aerial insectivores on the aerosphere’s trophic dynamics.Yeshttp://www.plosone.org/static/editorial#pee

Canagliflozin and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes and Nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to 300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m 2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years