Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone

The dynamics of marine systems at decadal scales are notoriously hard to predict—hence references to this timescale as the “grey zone” for ocean prediction. Nevertheless, decadal-scale prediction is a rapidly developing field with an increasing number of applications to help guide ocean stewardship and sustainable use of marine environments. Such predictions can provide industry and managers with information more suited to support planning and management over strategic timeframes, as compared to seasonal forecasts or long-term (century-scale) predic- tions. The most significant advances in capability for decadal-scale prediction over recent years have been for ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with some notable advances in ecological prediction skill. In this paper, we argue that the process of “lighting the grey zone” by providing im- proved predictions at decadal scales should also focus on including human dimensions in prediction systems to better meet the needs and priorities of end users. Our paper reviews information needs for decision-making at decadal scales and assesses current capabilities for meeting these needs. We identify key gaps in current capabilities, including the particular challenge of integrating human elements into decadal prediction systems. We then suggest approaches for overcoming these challenges and gaps, highlighting the important role of co-production of tools and scenarios, to build trust and ensure uptake with end users of decadal prediction systems. We also highlight opportunities for combining narratives and quantitative predictions to better incorporate the human dimension in future efforts to light the grey zone of decadal-scale prediction

Remarkable Reduction of MAP2 in the Brains of Scrapie-Infected Rodents and Human Prion Disease Possibly Correlated with the Increase of Calpain

Microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) belongs to the family of heat stable MAPs, which takes part in neuronal morphogenesis, maintenance of cellular architecture and internal organization, cell division and cellular processes. To obtain insight into the possible alteration and the role of MAP2 in transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), the MAP2 levels in the brain tissues of agent 263K-infected hamsters and human prion diseases were evaluated. Western blots and IHC revealed that at the terminal stages of the diseases, MAP2 levels in the brain tissues of scrapie infected hamsters, a patient with genetic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (G114V gCJD) and a patient with fatal familial insomnia (FFI) were almost undetectable. The decline of MAP2 was closely related with prolonged incubation time. Exposure of SK-N-SH neuroblastoma cell line to cytotoxic PrP106-126 peptide significantly down-regulated the cellular MAP2 level and remarkably disrupted the microtubule structure, but did not alter the level of tubulin. Moreover, the levels of calpain, which mediated the degradation of a broad of cytoskeletal proteins, were significantly increased in both PrP106-126 treated SK-N-SH cells and brain tissues of 263K prion-infected hamsters. Our data indicate that the decline of MAP2 is a common phenomenon in TSEs, which seems to occur at an early stage of incubation period. Markedly increased calpain level might contribute to the reduction of MAP2

Prolonged nursing in Cape fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus) at Cape Cross colony, Namibia

Extended nursing periods have been observed in some pinniped species. Here, we document multiple cases of such prolonged nursing in Cape fur seals in Namibia. Over three separate visits to the Cape Cross breeding colony, we observed five unusual nursing interactions. These included animals of estimated age from one to over three years suckling on awake and permitting females. One of these observations included two  individuals (juvenile and pup) suckling simultaneously. In three out of five cases, the female sniffed the large suckling animal, and the lack of aggression suggested mutual recognition. We suggest that the most likely scenario for these observations is that the larger animals might be the mothers’ offspring from the previous year maintaining contact over at least three years. Such prolonged nursing may occur in cases where the year’s pup is not born, dies or is outcompeted by older siblings, which can result in large energetic advantages for the offspring, by maintaining a feeding relationship with mothers over more than one year. We suggest that animals that extend suckling over more than one year may increase their overall success, although possibly inhibiting their mother’s pregnancy in a given year. Under poorer conditions, investing more in an older calf may also be more cost effective to the mother than risking a new pregnancy. However, further detailed investigation is necessary to explain  extended nursing in this socially complex mammal. Keywords: allosucklers, lactation, life history, maternal investment, nursing, parental care, pinnipe

Social calls of the little auk (Alle alle) reflect body size and possibly partnership, but not sex

Source–filter theory posits that an individual's size and vocal tract length are reflected in the parameters of their calls. In species that mate assortatively, this could result in vocal similarity. In the context of mate selection, this would mean that animals could listen in to find a partner that sounds—and therefore is—similar to them. We investigated the social calls of the little auk (Alle alle), a highly vocal seabird mating assortatively, using vocalizations produced inside 15 nests by known individuals. Source- and filter-related acoustic parameters were used in linear mixed models testing the possible impact of body size. A principal component analysis followed by a permuted discriminant function analysis tested the effect of sex. Additionally, randomization procedures tested whether partners are more vocally similar than random birds. There was a significant effect of size on the mean fundamental frequency of a simple call, but not on parameters of a multisyllable call with apparent formants. Neither sex nor partnership influenced the calls—there was, however, a tendency to match certain parameters between partners. This indicates that vocal cues are at best weak indicators of size, and other factors likely play a role in mate selection

Calls of the little auk (Alle alle) chicks reflect their behavioural contexts.

Animal vocalisations can often inform conspecifics about the behavioural context of production and the underlying affective states, hence revealing whether a situation should be approached or avoided. While this is particularly important for socially complex species, little is known about affective expression in wild colonial animals, and even less to about their young. We studied vocalisations of the little auk (Alle alle) chicks in the Hornsund breeding colony, Svalbard. Little auks are highly colonial seabirds, and adults convey complex behavioural contexts through their calls. We recorded chick calls during two contexts of opposite affective valence: handing by a human, and while they interact with their parents inside the nest. Using permuted discriminant function analysis and a series of linear mixed models, we examined the effect of the production context/associated affective valence on the acoustic parameters of those calls. Calls were reliably classified to their context, with over 97% accuracy. Calls uttered during handling had higher mean entropy, fundamental frequency, as well as lower spectral centre of gravity and a less steep spectral slope compared to calls produced during interactions with a parent inside the nest. The individuality of handling calls, assessed by information content, was lower than the individuality of calls uttered in the nest. These findings suggest that seabird chicks can effectively communicate behavioural/affective contexts through calls, conveying socially important messages early in development. Our results are mostly in line with emotional expression patterns observed across taxa, supporting their evolutionary continuity

Dynamics and Phase Transitions of 4-Bromobenzylidene-4'-pentyloxyaniline and 4-Bromobenzylidene-4'-hexyloxyaniline as Studied by Dielectric Spectroscopy

Significant differences in phase sequence and dynamics between 4-bromobenzylidene-4'-pentyloxyaniline (5BBA) and -bromobenzylidene-4'-heksyloxyaniline (6BBA) substances were detected by broadband dielectric spectroscopy. In the smectic A (6BBA), the smectic B (found in both substances) and the smectic E (5BBA) phases the relaxation was ascribed to reorientations of the molecules around the short axes. Slow dynamics detected in the smectic E and in two crystalline phases of 5BBA was ascribed to conformational changes of molecular chains. Coexistence of Cr(I) and Cr(II) conformationally disordered crystal (CONDIS) phases was observed and vitrification of Cr(II) was identified with help of polarizing microscopy

Volumetric, dielectric, calorimetric and X-ray studies of smectogenic 10PBO8 at atmospheric and elevated pressures

The synthesis and pressure–volume–temperature (PVT), differential thermal analysis (DTA), dielectric and X-ray diffraction data of 2-(4-octylcarbonyloxyphenyl)-5-decylpyrimidine (10PBO8) are presented. The substance exhibits two crystalline and smectic C (SmC) phases on heating and a SmC–monotropic crystalline smectic B (SmB_{cr}) SmB_{cr}–crystal sequence of phase transitions on cooling. Above ca. 15 MPa, the SmB_{cr} phase becomes enantiotropic (reversible polymorphism). The phase behaviour and molecular dynamics in the liquid crystalline phases are analysed and discussed, with the conformational component of the total entropy for the SmC–isotropic liquid transition estimated. We also calculate from the PVT results the potential parameter characterising the steepness of the interaction potential

Effect of the behavioural context on the acoustic parameters of the calls.

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