Analyzing Temperature Effects on Mortality Within the R Environment: The Constrained Segmented Distributed Lag Parameterization

Here we present and discuss the R package modTempEff including a set of functions aimed at modelling temperature effects on mortality with time series data. The functions fit a particular log linear model which allows to capture the two main features of mortality- temperature relationships: nonlinearity and distributed lag effect. Penalized splines and segmented regression constitute the core of the modelling framework. We briefly review the model and illustrate the functions throughout a simulated dataset.

Extinctions of aculeate pollinators in Britain and the role of large-scale agricultural changes

Pollinators are fundamental to maintaining both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, but habitat destruction, loss of flower resources, and increased use of pesticides are causing declines in their abundance and diversity. Using historical records we assessed the rate of extinction of bee and flower-visiting wasp species in Britain, from the mid 19th century to the present. The most rapid phase of extinction appears to be related to changes in agricultural policy and practice beginning in the 1920s, before the agricultural intensification prompted by the Second World War, often cited as the most important driver of biodiversity loss in Britain. Slowing of the extinction rate from the 1960s onwards may be due to prior loss of the most sensitive species and/or effective conservation programs

Global trends in infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface

The role and significance of wildlife–livestock interfaces in disease ecology has largely been neglected, despite recent interest in animals as origins of emerging diseases in humans. Scoping review methods were applied to objectively assess the relative interest by the scientific community in infectious diseases at interfaces between wildlife and livestock, to characterize animal species and regions involved, as well as to identify trends over time. An extensive literature search combining wildlife, livestock, disease, and geographical search terms yielded 78,861 publications, of which 15,998 were included in the analysis. Publications dated from 1912 to 2013 and showed a continuous increasing trend, including a shift from parasitic to viral diseases over time. In particular there was a significant increase in publications on the artiodactyls–cattle and bird–poultry interface after 2002 and 2003, respectively. These trends could be traced to key disease events that stimulated public interest and research funding. Among the top 10 diseases identified by this review, the majority were zoonoses. Prominent wildlife–livestock interfaces resulted largely from interaction between phylogenetically closely related and/or sympatric species. The bird–poultry interface was the most frequently cited wildlife–livestock interface worldwide with other interfaces reflecting regional circumstances. This review provides the most comprehensive overview of research on infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface to date

Growth curves of sorghum roots via quantile regression with P-splines

Plant roots are a major pool of total carbon in the planet and their dynamics are directly relevant to greenhouse gas balance. Composted wastes are increasingly used in agriculture for environmental and economic reasons and their role as a substitute for traditional fertilizers needs to be tested on all plant components. Here we propose a regression quantile approach based on P-splines to assess, quantify and compare the root growth patterns in two treatment groups respectively undergoing compost and traditional fertilization

Direct nitrous oxide emissions from oilseed rape cropping - a meta-analysis

Oilseed rape is one of the leading feedstocks for biofuel production in Europe. The climate change mitigation effect of rape methyl ester (RME) is particularly challenged by the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during crop production, mainly as nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils. Oilseed rape requires high nitrogen fertilization and crop residues are rich in nitrogen, both potentially causing enhanced N2O emissions. However, GHG emissions of oilseed rape production are often estimated using emission factors that account for crop-type specifics only with respect to crop residues. This meta-analysis therefore aimed to assess annual N2O emissions from winter oilseed rape, to compare them to those of cereals and to explore the underlying reasons for differences. For the identification of the most important factors, linear mixed effects models were fitted with 43 N2O emission data points deriving from 12 different field sites. N2O emissions increased exponentially with N-fertilization rates, but interyear and site-specific variability were high and climate variables or soil parameters did not improve the prediction model. Annual N2O emissions from winter oilseed rape were 22% higher than those from winter cereals fertilized at the same rate. At a common fertilization rate of 200 kg N ha−1 yr−1, the mean fraction of fertilizer N that was lost as N2O-N was 1.27% for oilseed rape compared to 1.04% for cereals. The risk of high yield-scaled N2O emissions increased after a critical N surplus of about 80 kg N ha−1 yr−1. The difference in N2O emissions between oilseed rape and cereal cultivation was especially high after harvest due to the high N contents in oilseed rape's crop residues. However, annual N2O emissions of winter oilseed rape were still lower than predicted by the Stehfest and Bouwman model. Hence, the assignment of oilseed rape to the crop-type classes of cereals or other crops should be reconsidered

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Free fatty acids link metabolism and regulation of the insulin-sensitizing fibroblast growth factor-21

OBJECTIVE—Fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-21 improves insulin sensitivity and lipid metabolism in obese or diabetic animal models, while human studies revealed increased FGF-21 levels in obesity and type 2 diabetes. Given that FGF-21 has been suggested to be a peroxisome proliferator–activator receptor (PPAR) –dependent regulator of fasting metabolism, we hypothesized that free fatty acids (FFAs), natural agonists of PPAR, might modify FGF-21 levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The effect of fatty acids on FGF-21 was investigated in vitro in HepG2 cells. Within a randomized controlled trial, the effects of elevated FFAs were studied in 21 healthy subjects (13 women and 8 men). Within a clinical trial including 17 individuals, the effect of insulin was analyzed using an hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp and the effect of PPAR activation was studied subsequently in a rosiglitazone treatment trial over 8 weeks. RESULTS—Oleate and linoleate increased FGF-21 expression and secretion in a PPAR-dependent fashion, as demonstrated by small-interfering RNA–induced PPAR knockdown, while palmitate had no effect. In vivo, lipid infusion induced an increase of circulating FGF-21 in humans, and a strong correlation between the change in FGF-21 levels and the change in FFAs was observed. An artificial hyperinsulinemia, which was induced to delineate the potential interaction between elevated FFAs and hyperinsulinemia, revealed that hyperinsulinemia also increased FGF-21 levels in vivo, while rosiglitazone treatment had no effect. CONCLUSIONS—The results presented here offer a mechanism explaining the induction of the metabolic regulator FGF-21 in the fasting situation but also in type 2 diabetes and obesity

Determining the effect of drying time on phosphorus solubilization from three agricultural soils under climate change scenarios

Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying–rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved 25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models