Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community

The Grizzly, November 17, 1998

Bring in the New Year with a New Problem • Airband: Still Searching for a Cause • Update: New Gym • Opinion: Opportunity to Gain a Degree Should be for Everyone • Full-time Students, Part-time Jobs • Is Anyone Listening?: WVOU • Swing Night at Ursinus • Eden Cinema: Paradise • Cross Country Sprints to End • Women\u27s Soccer Season Concludes • Seniors Step-Up on the Volleyball Court • UC Swimming Drops Home Opener • Ursinus Wrestlers Hungry to Regain Title • Field Hockey Struggles Through Rebuilding • UC Football Loses Final Battle of Season • UC Football Players Honored • Donahue and Bailey Represent UChttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1429/thumbnail.jp

A crossover randomised controlled trial of oral mandibular advancement devices for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO)

Rationale Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are used to treat obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical and cost-effectiveness in less severe disease. Objectives To compare clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a range of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAHS. Measurements and methods This open-label, randomised, controlled, crossover trial was undertaken at a UK sleep centre. Adults with Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) 5–<30/h and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score ≥9 underwent 6 weeks of treatment with three nonadjustable MADs: self-moulded (SleepPro 1; SP1); semi-bespoke (SleepPro 2; SP2); fully-bespoke MAD (bMAD); and 4 weeks no treatment. Primary outcome was AHI scored by a polysomnographer blinded to treatment. Secondary outcomes included ESS, quality of life, resource use and cost. Main results 90 patients were randomised and 83 were analysed. All devices reduced AHI compared with no treatment by 26% (95% CI 11% to 38%, p=0.001) for SP1, 33% (95% CI 24% to 41%) for SP2 and 36% (95% CI 24% to 45%, p<0.001) for bMAD. ESS was 1.51 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.29, p<0.001, SP1) to 2.37 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.22, p<0.001, bMAD) lower than no treatment (p<0.001 for all). Compliance was lower for SP1, which was the least preferred treatment at trial exit. All devices were cost-effective compared with no treatment at a £20 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. SP2 was the most cost-effective up to £39 800/QALY. Conclusions Non-adjustable MADs achieve clinically important improvements in mild to moderate OSAHS and are cost-effective

The Grizzly, October 27, 1998

Mischief and Mayhem Night • Big Brother\u27s in the Library • Rewind: Homecoming Alterations • Racism: One Piece of the Puzzle • The Democratic Dilemma of Legislating Hate • Are We Creatures of Habit? • A Look at What Ursinus Terms as Security • Students Voice Security Concerns • Borsdorf Spreads Fitness Message Over East Coast • Sculpture Depicts Trauma, Unity and Sacrifice of War Years • Ursinus Welcomes Savadove • Jeffrey Gaines Entertains Ursinus • Church on Film • McKellen Teaches Us a Thing or Two in Apt Pupil • The Big Fella\u27s Forum • Ursinus Destroys Gettysburg • Linebacker Vecchio Shines for Ursinus • Women\u27s Soccer Makes History • Cross Country Runs Over Competition • Soccer Falls Against Gettysburg • UC Volleyball Evens Out at .500 • Field Hockey Chalks Up First Victoryhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1991/thumbnail.jp

BMQ

BMQ: Boston Medical Quarterly was published from 1950-1966 by the Boston University School of Medicine and the Massachusetts Memorial Hospitals

Advancing Tests of Relativistic Gravity via Laser Ranging to Phobos

Phobos Laser Ranging (PLR) is a concept for a space mission designed to advance tests of relativistic gravity in the solar system. PLR's primary objective is to measure the curvature of space around the Sun, represented by the Eddington parameter $\gamma$, with an accuracy of two parts in $10^7$, thereby improving today's best result by two orders of magnitude. Other mission goals include measurements of the time-rate-of-change of the gravitational constant, $G$ and of the gravitational inverse square law at 1.5 AU distances--with up to two orders-of-magnitude improvement for each. The science parameters will be estimated using laser ranging measurements of the distance between an Earth station and an active laser transponder on Phobos capable of reaching mm-level range resolution. A transponder on Phobos sending 0.25 mJ, 10 ps pulses at 1 kHz, and receiving asynchronous 1 kHz pulses from earth via a 12 cm aperture will permit links that even at maximum range will exceed a photon per second. A total measurement precision of 50 ps demands a few hundred photons to average to 1 mm (3.3 ps) range precision. Existing satellite laser ranging (SLR) facilities--with appropriate augmentation--may be able to participate in PLR. Since Phobos' orbital period is about 8 hours, each observatory is guaranteed visibility of the Phobos instrument every Earth day. Given the current technology readiness level, PLR could be started in 2011 for launch in 2016 for 3 years of science operations. We discuss the PLR's science objectives, instrument, and mission design. We also present the details of science simulations performed to support the mission's primary objectives.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures, 9 table

The Grizzly, November 3, 1998

President\u27s Proposal Summons Bears to the Roundtable • Pay...Now or Later • Myrin Security a Necessity • Close of Olin\u27s Open Door Policy • Opinion: Random Rudeness and Senseless Acts of Destruction; Why This Election Matters; College Students: Get Out and Vote! • Group Helps Students Cope with Loss • Kicking the Habit, One Habit at a Time • New Course Tackles The Big Questions • A Night of Jazz • Intercollegiate Choir • Graffiti Tribe Returns • Men\u27s Soccer Dominates Swarthmore • Season High for UC Volleyball • Field Hockey Victorious Over Colgate • UC Swimmers Test the Water • Women\u27s Soccer Season Ends Its Third Year • Football Loses to Muhlenberg in Overtimehttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1427/thumbnail.jp

Modern rhodolith-dominated carbonates at Punta Chivato, Mexico

Rhodolith-dominated carbonate environments, characterized by high abundances of free-living coralline algae, have been described globally from a wide range of Recent and fossil shallow marine settings. In the present-day warm-temperate Gulf of California, Mexico, rhodolith-dominated systems are important contributors to carbonate production. One of the most prolific rhodolith factories is located on the Punta Chivato shelf, in the central Gulf of California, where due to a lack of input of terrigenous material from the arid hinterland, carbonate content averages 79%. Punta Chivato rhodoliths thrive above the shallow euphotic zone under normal saline, warm-temperate and meso- to eutrophic conditions. A detailed sedimentologic study combined with acoustic seafloor mapping indicates the presence of extensive rhodolith-dominated facies at subtidal water depth covering an area of \u3e17 km2. Additional facies, surrounding the rhodolith-dominated facies include a fine-grained molluscan, a transitional bivalve-rhodolith and a bivalve facies. While the Punta Chivato shelf yields average abundances of 38% rhodolith-derived coralline algal components in the gravel-sized sediment fraction, the rhodolith facies itself is characterized by more than 60% coralline algal components. Other important carbonate producers at Punta Chivato include bivalves (35%), bryozoa (11%) and gastropods (8%). The present study shows that acoustic sediment mapping yields highly resolved continuous coverage of the seafloor and can distinguish modern rhodolith facies from surrounding sediment. This has important implications for quantifying rhodolith-dominated settings globally, as well as for ecological and conservation studies. © Publications Scientifiques du Muséum national d\u27Histoire naturelle, Paris