Propagating uncertainty from catchment experiments to estimates of streamflow reduction by invasive alien plants in southwestern South Africa

Abstract Long-term catchment experiments from South Africa have demonstrated that afforestation of grasslands and shrublands significantly reduces surface-water runoff. These results have guided the country’s forestry policy and the implementation of a national Invasive Alien Plant (IAP) control programme for the past few decades. Unfortunately, woody IAP densities continue to increase, compounding existing threats to water security from population growth and climatic change. Decision makers need defensible estimates of the impacts of afforestation or invasions on runoff to weigh up alternative land use options, or guide investment of limited resources into ecosystem restoration through IAP clearing versus engineering-based water-augmentation schemes. Existing attempts to extrapolate the impacts observed in catchment afforestation experiments to broad-scale IAP impacts give no indication of uncertainty. Globally, the uncertainty inherent in the results from paired-catchment experiments is seldom propagated into subsequent analyses making use of these data. We present a fully reproducible Bayesian model that propagates uncertainty from input data to final estimates of changes in streamflow when extrapolating from catchment experiments to broader landscapes. We apply our model to South Africa’s catchment experiment data, estimating streamflow losses to plantations and analogous plant invasions in the catchments of southwestern South Africa, including uncertainty. We estimate that regional streamflow is reduced by 304 million m3 or 4.14% annually as a result of IAPs, with an upper estimate of 408 million m3 (5.54%) and a lower estimate of 267 million m3 (3.63%). Our model quantifies uncertainty associated with all parameters and their contribution to overall uncertainty, helping guide future research needs. Acknowledging and quantifying inherent uncertainty enables more defensible decisions regarding water resource management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

An Integrated TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource to Drive High-Quality Survival Outcome Analytics

For a decade, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) program collected clinicopathologic annotation data along with multi-platform molecular profiles of more than 11,000 human tumors across 33 different cancer types. TCGA clinical data contain key features representing the democratized nature of the data collection process. To ensure proper use of this large clinical dataset associated with genomic features, we developed a standardized dataset named the TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource (TCGA-CDR), which includes four major clinical outcome endpoints. In addition to detailing major challenges and statistical limitations encountered during the effort of integrating the acquired clinical data, we present a summary that includes endpoint usage recommendations for each cancer type. These TCGA-CDR findings appear to be consistent with cancer genomics studies independent of the TCGA effort and provide opportunities for investigating cancer biology using clinical correlates at an unprecedented scale. Analysis of clinicopathologic annotations for over 11,000 cancer patients in the TCGA program leads to the generation of TCGA Clinical Data Resource, which provides recommendations of clinical outcome endpoint usage for 33 cancer types

Driver Fusions and Their Implications in the Development and Treatment of Human Cancers.

Gene fusions represent an important class of somatic alterations in cancer. We systematically investigated fusions in 9,624 tumors across 33 cancer types using multiple fusion calling tools. We identified a total of 25,664 fusions, with a 63% validation rate. Integration of gene expression, copy number, and fusion annotation data revealed that fusions involving oncogenes tend to exhibit increased expression, whereas fusions involving tumor suppressors have the opposite effect. For fusions involving kinases, we found 1,275 with an intact kinase domain, the proportion of which varied significantly across cancer types. Our study suggests that fusions drive the development of 16.5% of cancer cases and function as the sole driver in more than 1% of them. Finally, we identified druggable fusions involving genes such as TMPRSS2, RET, FGFR3, ALK, and ESR1 in 6.0% of cases, and we predicted immunogenic peptides, suggesting that fusions may provide leads for targeted drug and immune therapy

Measurements of CO2 exchange over a woodland savanna (Cerrado Sensu stricto) in southeast Brasil

The technique of eddy correlation was used to measure the net ecosystem exchange over a woodland savanna (Cerrado Sensu stricto) site (Gleba Pé de Gigante) in southeast Brazil. The data set included measurements of climatological variables and soil respiration using static soil chambers. Data were collected during the period from 10 October 2000 to 30 March 2002. Measured soil respiration showed average values of 4.8 molCO2 m-2s-1 year round. Its seasonal differences varied from 2 to 8 molCO2 m-2s-1 (Q10 = 4.9) during the dry (April to August) and wet season, respectively, and was concurrent with soil temperature and moisture variability. The net ecosystem CO2 flux (NEE) variability is controlled by solar radiation, temperature and air humidity on diel course. Seasonally, soil moisture plays a strong role by inducing litterfall, reducing canopy photosynthetic activity and soil respiration. The net sign of NEE is negative (sink) in the wet season and early dry season, with rates around -25 kgC ha-1day-1, and values as low as 40 kgC ha-1day-1. NEE was positive (source) during most of the dry season, and changed into negative at the onset of rainy season. At critical times of soil moisture stress during the late dry season, the ecosystem experienced photosynthesis during daytime, although the net sign is positive (emission). Concurrent with dry season, the values appeared progressively positive from 5 to as much as 50 kgC ha-1day-1. The annual NEE sum appeared to be nearly in balance, or more exactly a small sink, equal to 0.1 0.3 tC ha-1yr-1, which we regard possibly as a realistic one, giving the constraining conditions imposed to the turbulent flux calculation, and favourable hypothesis of succession stages, climatic variability and CO2 fertilization

Comparative Molecular Analysis of Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinomas

We analyzed 921 adenocarcinomas of the esophagus, stomach, colon, and rectum to examine shared and distinguishing molecular characteristics of gastrointestinal tract adenocarcinomas (GIACs). Hypermutated tumors were distinct regardless of cancer type and comprised those enriched for insertions/deletions, representing microsatellite instability cases with epigenetic silencing of MLH1 in the context of CpG island methylator phenotype, plus tumors with elevated single-nucleotide variants associated with mutations in POLE. Tumors with chromosomal instability were diverse, with gastroesophageal adenocarcinomas harboring fragmented genomes associated with genomic doubling and distinct mutational signatures. We identified a group of tumors in the colon and rectum lacking hypermutation and aneuploidy termed genome stable and enriched in DNA hypermethylation and mutations in KRAS, SOX9, and PCBP1. Liu et al. analyze 921 gastrointestinal (GI) tract adenocarcinomas and find that hypermutated tumors are enriched for insertions/deletions, upper GI tumors with chromosomal instability harbor fragmented genomes, and a group of genome-stable colorectal tumors are enriched in mutations in SOX9 and PCBP1

The Immune Landscape of Cancer

We performed an extensive immunogenomic anal-ysis of more than 10,000 tumors comprising 33diverse cancer types by utilizing data compiled byTCGA. Across cancer types, we identified six im-mune subtypes\u2014wound healing, IFN-gdominant,inflammatory, lymphocyte depleted, immunologi-cally quiet, and TGF-bdominant\u2014characterized bydifferences in macrophage or lymphocyte signa-tures, Th1:Th2 cell ratio, extent of intratumoral het-erogeneity, aneuploidy, extent of neoantigen load,overall cell proliferation, expression of immunomod-ulatory genes, and prognosis. Specific drivermutations correlated with lower (CTNNB1,NRAS,orIDH1) or higher (BRAF,TP53,orCASP8) leukocytelevels across all cancers. Multiple control modalitiesof the intracellular and extracellular networks (tran-scription, microRNAs, copy number, and epigeneticprocesses) were involved in tumor-immune cell inter-actions, both across and within immune subtypes.Our immunogenomics pipeline to characterize theseheterogeneous tumors and the resulting data areintended to serve as a resource for future targetedstudies to further advance the field

The Cancer Genome Atlas Comprehensive Molecular Characterization of Renal Cell Carcinoma

Renal cell carcinoma(RCC) is not a single disease, but several histologically defined cancers with different genetic drivers, clinical courses, and therapeutic responses. The current study evaluated 843 RCC from the three major histologic subtypes, including 488 clear cell RCC, 274 papillary RCC, and 81 chromophobe RCC. Comprehensive genomic and phenotypic analysis of the RCC subtypes reveals distinctive features of each subtype that provide the foundation for the development of subtype-specific therapeutic and management strategies for patients affected with these cancers. Somatic alteration of BAP1, PBRM1, and PTEN and altered metabolic pathways correlated with subtype-specific decreased survival, while CDKN2A alteration, increased DNA hypermethylation, and increases in the immune-related Th2 gene expression signature correlated with decreased survival within all major histologic subtypes. CIMP-RCC demonstrated an increased immune signature, and a uniform and distinct metabolic expression pattern identified a subset of metabolically divergent (MD) ChRCC that associated with extremely poor survival

Somatic Mutational Landscape of Splicing Factor Genes and Their Functional Consequences across 33 Cancer Types

Hotspot mutations in splicing factor genes have been recently reported at high frequency in hematological malignancies, suggesting the importance of RNA splicing in cancer. We analyzed whole-exome sequencing data across 33 tumor types in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), and we identified 119 splicing factor genes with significant non-silent mutation patterns, including mutation over-representation, recurrent loss of function (tumor suppressor-like), or hotspot mutation profile (oncogene-like). Furthermore, RNA sequencing analysis revealed altered splicing events associated with selected splicing factor mutations. In addition, we were able to identify common gene pathway profiles associated with the presence of these mutations. Our analysis suggests that somatic alteration of genes involved in the RNA-splicing process is common in cancer and may represent an underappreciated hallmark of tumorigenesis