Forecasting volatility of Bitcoin

Since Bitcoin price is highly volatile, forecasting its volatility is crucial for many applications, such as risk management or hedging. We study which model is the most suitable for forecasting Bitcoin volatility. We consider several GARCH and two heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models and compare them. Since we utilize realized variance estimated from high frequency data as a proxy for true volatility, we can draw sharper conclusions than studies which use only daily data. We find that EGARCH and APARCH perform best among the GARCH models. HAR models based on realized variance perform better than GARCH models based on daily data. Superiority of HAR models over GARCH models is strongest for short-term volatility forecasts.publishedVersio

The grandchildren of the Ga'e ancestors : the Hoga Sara of Ngada in West-Central Flores

The thesis is based on eighteen months of fieldwork in the regency of Ngada on the eastern Indonesian island of Flores. It examines the system of organizing principles and symbolism of Hoga Sara society as is expressed in its social organization and cosmology. The people of the modem village and former village confederacy of the Sara Sedu, the Hoga Sara, are on a continuum with the Ngadha and Nage-Keo ethnic groups of the regency. They exhibit, however, their own unique cultural features as a group in their own right, and as a part of a larger grouping which encompasses the peoples of their neighbouring villages of Taka Tunga, Sanga Deto, and Rowa. The introduction situates the Hoga Sara in their ethnographic region and provides a brief literature and historical review of the regency. The first chapter of the thesis examines Hoga Sara identity in the context of contrasting themselves to the Ngadha on the one hand, and predicating commonality with the Hoga Taka, Are, and Rowa on the basis of common derivation from a ancestral pair and their offspring, the Ga'e siblings, on the other. Common ancestral derivation, ebu mogo, is also a basis of defining the identity of the Hoga Sara as a group, although composed of authochthonous and immigrant clans. Other aspects of group definition are connected with shared agricultural calendar and other collective ritual activities. The second chapter focuses on the individual traditional villages ( nua) which make up the territory of the former village confederacy of Sara Sedu. The composition of the nua and spatial orientation within it are examined. The third chapter deals with Hoga Sara organization of the individual clans (woe) that occupy the nua. The woe is composed of a number of named and supporting unnamed houses. The two eldest houses, sa'o pu'u (source houses) — sa'o saka pu'u and sa'o saka lobo (trunk and tip rider houses) -- form the major dual division within the clan. All named houses relate to each other and to their unnamed houses as elder-younger, ka'e-azi, based on the order of precedence of their establishment. The trunk and tip parts of the clan furthermore relate to each other as female and male. Structural differences between the clans of Sara and Sedu(Bodo) are also highlighted. Chapter four looks at the house as the basic unit of social organization. The house is a collectivity of a group of related families. The principles of membership, who is an ana ebu of the house, as well as the process of derivation from one named house from another are examined. Membership is based on a range of principles: payment of bridewealth, fulfilment of ritual obligations, tracing derivation through the father's houses and the house of origin of the mother, and marriage. Access to ancestral land is ultimately dependant on membership (ana ebu status). The named house ties together wide ranging social relations and is thus the basic unit of social organization of the Hoga Sara. The fifth chapter examines the significance of the named house (sa'o meze) and other physical objects emblematic of house and clan organization with regard to Hoga Sara concepts of identity and continuity. Social use of space, various symbolic aspects, and cosmological significance of the sa'o are explored. The buffalo sacrifice post (madhu or peo), the ancestral mother house (bhaga) and megalithic stone platforms (nabe and ture) are also considered with respect to identity. Chapter six continues to examine the significance of these physical structures of a clan in the context of Hoga Sara concepts of continuity. The cycle by which deceased members of a house become the specific protective ancestors of a clan and house are considered with a focus on the ancestral embodiment in the parts of the house, stone platforms, and sacrificial post. The ritual installation of these objects is thus essential in securing the continuity of a house or clan in the form of lifegenerative potential granted by the ancestors. Chapter Seven looks at the relationship of the Hoga Sara with their ancestors. The nature of the ritual interaction between the living and the ancestors is examined. A specific example, the ritual installation of the buffalo sacrifice post (madhu or peo) is considered in this regard. The conclusion provides an overview of Hoga Sara society with reference to current approaches of comparative studies of Austronesian societies. The comparative remarks highlight the presence of several wide-spread organizing and symbolic principles which the Hoga Sara share with other Indonesian groups, yet in their own unique configuration which is the result of local historical process of development

Climate Ready Great Lakes Cities

Rising out of the strategic alliance between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative (GLSLCI), the motivating goal of this 13- month project was to create a more resilient Great Lakes region by fostering climate adaptation planning. NOAA and GLSLCI recognize that municipalities across the Great Lakes Region will suffer economic, structural, health, and other impacts under a changing climate, and will need to engage in adaptation planning in order to mitigate and minimize these losses. The problem this project seeks to address is to surmount challenges in building adaptive capacity in a governance environment that is multi-level, crossjurisdictional and resource-limited. Our team focused on showcasing the ongoing efforts of Great Lakes cities to move the region towards a more resilient future, and our deliverables were designed to fill critical information gaps that may hinder robust action. We provided a suite of multimedia decision support tools that: 1) Support city officials’ efforts to increase Great Lakes-specific climate literacy within their municipalities 2) Disseminate descriptive climate adaptation “best practices” among Great Lakes municipal officialsMaster of ScienceNatural Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111046/1/Climate_read_Great_Lakes_2015.pd

Charm and beauty of the Large Hadron Collider

With the acceleration of lead nuclei in the LHC, heavy-ion physics will enter a new energy domain. One of the main novelties introduced by the 30-fold energy-jump from RHIC to the LHC is the abundant heavy-quark production. After discussing a few examples of physics issues that can be addressed using heavy quarks, we present a selection of results on the expected experimental capability of ALICE, the dedicated heavy-ion experiment at the LHC, in the open-heavy-flavour sector.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. Invited talk at Strangeness in Quark Matter (SQM) 2004, Cape Town, South Africa, 15-20 September 2004. Submitted to J. Phys.

Oxidative Stress-Related Parthanatos of Circulating Mononuclear Leukocytes in Heart Failure

Background: The present study aims to examine the oxidative stress related activation of poly(ADP-ribose)polymerase (PARP), signs of parthanatos in circulating mononuclear leukocytes of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) that was rarely investigated in the human setting yet. Methods: Patients with CHF (n=20) and age, body mass index matched volunteers (n=15) with normal heart function were enrolled. C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP), plasma total peroxide level (PRX), plasma total antioxidant capacity (TAC), oxidative stress index (OSI), leukocyte lipid peroxidation (4-hydroxynonenal; HNE), protein tyrosine nitration (NT), poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation (PARylation), and apoptosis inducing factor (AIF) translocation were measured in blood samples of fasting subjects. Results: Plasma PRX, leukocyte HNE, NT, PARylation and AIF translocation were significantly higher in the heart failure group. Pro-BNP levels in all study subjects showed significant positive correlation to PRX, OSI, leukocyte HNE, NT, PARylation and AIF translocation. Ejection fraction negatively correlated with same parameters. Among HF patients, positive correlation of pro-BNP with PRX, OSI and PARylation was still present. Conclusions: Markers of oxidative-nitrative stress, PARP activation and AIF translocation in blood components showed correlation to reduced cardiac function and the clinical appearance of CHF. These results may reinforce the consideration of PARP inhibition as a potential therapeutic target in CHF

Triaxiality and non-thermal gas pressure in Abell 1689

Clusters of galaxies are uniquely important cosmological probes of the evolution of the large scale structure, whose diagnostic power depends quite significantly on the ability to reliably determine their masses. Clusters are typically modeled as spherical systems whose intracluster gas is in strict hydrostatic equilibrium (i.e., the equilibrium gas pressure is provided entirely by thermal pressure), with the gravitational field dominated by dark matter, assumptions that are only rough approximations. In fact, numerical simulations indicate that galaxy clusters are typically triaxial, rather than spherical, and that turbulent gas motions (induced during hierarchical merger events) provide an appreciable pressure component. Extending our previous work, we present results of a joint analysis of X-ray, weak and strong lensing measurements of Abell 1689. The quality of the data allows us to determine both the triaxial shape of the cluster and the level of non-thermal pressure that is required if the intracluster gas is in hydrostatic equilibrium. We find that the dark matter axis ratios are 1.24 +/- 0.13 and 2.02 +/- 0.01 on the plane of the sky and along the line of sight, respectively, and that about 20% of the pressure is non-thermal. Our treatment demonstrates that the dynamical properties of clusters can be determined in a (mostly) bias-free way, enhancing the use of clusters as more precise cosmological probes.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Association of Tagging Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms on 8 Candidate Genes in Dopaminergic Pathway with Schizophrenia in Croatian Population

Aim To perform a comprehensive evaluation of association of common genetic variants in candidate genes in the dopaminergic pathway with schizophrenia in a sample from Croatian population. Methods A case-control association study was performed on 104 unrelated patients with schizophrenia recruited from a psychiatric hospital in Zagreb and 131 phenotypically normal Croatian subjects. Forty-nine tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) in 8 candidate genes in the dopaminergic pathway were identified from the HapMap database and tested for association. Genotyping was performed using the SNPlex platform. Statistical analysis was conducted to assess allelic and genotypic associations between cases and controls using a goodness of fit χ2 test and trend test, respectively; adjustment for multiple testing was done by permutation based analysis. Results Significant allele frequency differences between schizophrenia cases and controls were observed at 4 tag- SNPs located in the genes DRD5, HTR1B1, DBH, and TH1 (P < 0.005). A trend test also confirmed the genotypic association (P < 0.001) of these 4 tagSNPs. Additionally, moderate association (P < 0.05) was observed with 8 tagSNPs on SLC6A3, DBH, DRD4, SLC6A4, and COMT. Conclusions Common genetic variants in genes involved in the dopaminergic pathway are associated with schizophrenia in the populations of Caucasian descent