Sustainability of the US current account deficit: An econometric analysis of the impact of capital inflow on domestic economy

The purpose of this paper is to estimate, by using the recent econometric techniques of unit root testing and Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique (1990), the impact of foreign capital inflow on the volume and efficiency of domestic investment in the United States during the period, 1973-1999. A battery of diagnostic tests is employed to check the validity and robustness of the estimated results. Evidence suggests that capital inflows have had a significant positive effect on the volume of US investment, but the effect on the efficiency of investment has been minimal. These findings imply that, while achieving current account balance is important, it is equally important to sustain and augment the beneficial impact of capital inflow by creating a more conducive investment climate. Given our limited ability to influence current account balance, this seems to be a more pragmatic policy option for dealing with the US current account imbalance.current account, capital inflow

'I-V Characteristic and Crystal Structural Of a-As/c-Si Heterojunctions

In this research the a-As flims have been prepared by thermal evaporation with thickness 250 nm and rata of deposition r_d(1.04nm/sec) as function to annealing temperature (373 and 473K), from XRD analysis we can see that the degree of crystalline increase with T_a, and I-V characteristic for dark and illumination shows that forward bias current varieties approximately exponentially with voltage bias. Also we found that the quality factor and saturation current dependence on annealing temperatures

Critical Role of the Programmed Death-1 (PD-1) Pathway in Regulation of Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis

Experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) is mediated by autoantigen-specific T cells dependent on critical costimulatory signals for their full activation and regulation. We report that the programmed death-1 (PD-1) costimulatory pathway plays a critical role in regulating peripheral tolerance in murine EAE and appears to be a major contributor to the resistance of disease induction in CD28-deficient mice. After immunization with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) there was a progressive increase in expression of PD-1 and its ligand PD-L1 but not PD-L2 within the central nervous system (CNS) of mice with EAE, peaking after 3 wk. In both wild-type (WT) and CD28-deficient mice, PD-1 blockade resulted in accelerated and more severe disease with increased CNS lymphocyte infiltration. Worsening of disease after PD-1 blockade was associated with a heightened autoimmune response to MOG, manifested by increased frequency of interferon γ–producing T cells, increased delayed-type hypersensitivity responses, and higher serum levels of anti-MOG antibody. In vivo blockade of PD-1 resulted in increased antigen-specific T cell expansion, activation, and cytokine production. Interestingly, PD-L2 but not PD-L1 blockade in WT animals also resulted in disease augmentation. Our data are the first demonstration that the PD-1 pathway plays a critical role in regulating EAE

The prognostic significance of wild type isocitrate dehydrogenase 2 (IDH2) in breast cancer

Background: Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is a prerequisite step in breast cancer (BC) metastasis. We have previously identified wild type isocitrate dehydrogenase 2 (IDH2) as a key putative driver of LVI. Thus, we explored the prognostic significance of IDH2 at transcriptome and protein expression levels in pre-invasive and invasive disease.Methods: Utlising, tissue microarrays from a large well annotated BC cohort including ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer (IBC), IDH2 was assessed at the transcriptomic and proteomic level. The associations between clinicopathological factors including LVI status, prognosis and the expression of IDH2 were evaluated.Results: In pure DCIS and IBC, high IDH2 protein expression was associated with features of aggressiveness including high nuclear grade, larger size, comedo-necrosis and hormonal receptor negativity and LVI, higher grade, larger tumour size, high NPI, HER2 positivity, and hormonal receptor negativity, respectively. High expression of IDH2 either in mRNA or protein levels was associated with poor patient’s outcome in both DCIS and IBC.  Multivariate analysis revealed that IDH2 protein expression was an independent risk factor for shorter BC specific-survival.Conclusion: Further functional studies to decipher the role of IDH2 and its mechanism of action as a driver of BC progression and LVI are warranted

A six-year descriptive analysis of hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions among people born in refugee-source countries

Background: Hospitalisation for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSHs) has become a recognised tool to measure access to primary care. Timely and effective outpatient care is highly relevant to refugee populations given the past exposure to torture and trauma, and poor access to adequate health care in their countries of origin and during flight. Little is known about ACSHs among resettled refugee populations. With the aim of examining the hypothesis that people from refugee backgrounds have higher ACSHs than people born in the country of hospitalisation, this study analysed a six-year state-wide hospital discharge dataset to estimate ACSH rates for residents born in refugee-source countries and compared them with the Australia-born population. Methods: Hospital discharge data between 1 July 1998 and 30 June 2004 from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset were used to assess ACSH rates among residents born in eight refugee-source countries, and compare them with the Australia-born average. Rate ratios and 95% confidence levels were used to illustrate these comparisons. Four categories of ambulatory care sensitive conditions were measured: total, acute, chronic and vaccine-preventable. Country of birth was used as a proxy indicator of refugee status. Results: When compared with the Australia-born population, hospitalisations for total and acute ambulatory care sensitive conditions were lower among refugee-born persons over the six-year period. Chronic and vaccine-preventable ACSHs were largely similar between the two population groups. Conclusion: Contrary to our hypothesis, preventable hospitalisation rates among people born in refugee-source countries were no higher than Australia-born population averages. More research is needed to elucidate whether low rates of preventable hospitalisation indicate better health status, appropriate health habits, timely and effective care-seeking behaviour and outpatient care, or overall low levels of health care-seeking due to other more pressing needs during the initial period of resettlement. It is important to unpack dimensions of health status and health care access in refugee populations through ad-hoc surveys as the refugee population is not a homogenous group despite sharing a common experience of forced displacement and violence-related trauma

Do sugar-sweetened beverages cause adverse health outcomes in adults? A systematic review protocol

Background: Chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, impose significant burden to public health. Most chronic diseases are associated with underlying preventable risk factors, such as elevated blood pressure, blood glucose, and lipids, physical inactivity, excessive sedentary behaviours, overweight and obesity, and tobacco usage. Sugar-sweetened beverages are known to be significant sources of additional caloric intake, and given recent attention to their contribution in the development of chronic diseases, a systematic review is warranted. We will assess whether the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in adults is associated with adverse health outcomes and what the potential moderating factors are. Methods/Design: Of interest are studies addressing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, taking a broad perspective. Both direct consumption studies as well as those evaluating interventions that influence consumption (e.g. school policy, educational) will be relevant. Non-specific or multi-faceted behavioural, educational, or policy interventions may also be included subject to the level of evidence that exists for the other interventions/exposures. Comparisons of interest and endpoints of interest are pre-specified. We will include randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials, interrupted time series studies, controlled before-after studies, prospective and retrospective comparative cohort studies, case-control studies, and nested case-control designs. The MEDLINE®, Embase, The Cochrane Library, CINAHL, ERIC, and PsycINFO® databases

The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (–4·1% [–5·0 to –3·4]) than in incidence (–1·6% [–1·9 to –1·2]) and prevalence (–0·7% [–1·0 to –0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis

The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments. Methods: Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates. Findings: In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000\u2013456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally, of which 232 000 (210 000\u2013221 000; 51\ub79%) were in males. The age-standardised incidence rate was 5\ub70 (4\ub79\u20135\ub71) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5\ub77 (5\ub76\u20135\ub78) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. There was a 2\ub73 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000 (193 000\u2013200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000\u2013449 000) in 2017. There was a 2\ub71 times increase in DALYs due to pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4\ub74 million (4\ub73\u20134\ub75) in 1990 to 9\ub71 million (8\ub79\u20139\ub73) in 2017. The age-standardised death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17\ub74 [15\ub78\u201319\ub70] per 100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12\ub71 [10\ub79\u201313\ub75] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1\ub79 [1\ub75\u20132\ub73] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017, and S\ue3o Tom\ue9 and Pr\uedncipe (1\ub73 [1\ub71\u20131\ub75] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65\u201369 years for males and at 75\u201379 years for females. Age-standardised pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21\ub71% [18\ub78\u201323\ub77]), high fasting plasma glucose (8\ub79% [2\ub71\u201319\ub74]), and high body-mass index (6\ub72% [2\ub75\u201311\ub74]) in 2017. Interpretation: Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify