Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 11 Foodborne Parasitic Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis

We would like to acknowledge the assistance of the WHO Secretariat over the life of the FERG initiative, particularly Amy Cawthorne, Tim Corrigan, Tanja Kuchenmüller, Yuki Minato, Kurt Straif and Claudia Stein. We acknowledge the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Seattle, WA, USA) for providing data on the global burden of selected diseases.In this data synthesis, Paul Robert Torgerson and colleagues estimate the global and regional disease burden of 11 foodborne parasitic diseases.Yeshttp://www.plosmedicine.org/static/editorial#pee

Obstetrics and neonatal outcomes in pregnant women with covid-19: A systematic review

Background: Considering that the obstetricians and pediatricians need to comprehensive information about the obstetric and neonatal effect of COVID-19, this review study was conducted to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on obstetrics and neonatal outcomes. Methods: In this systematic review the international search databases following PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest and Embase and Google scholar were searched. All articles were reviewed by two independent research-ers until 10 April 2020. After quality assessment of included studies the finding reported in 2 sections obstetrics and neonatal outcomes. Results: The sixteen studies with a sample size of 123 pregnant women with a definitive diagnosis of COVID-19 and their neonates were evaluated. The range of gestational age was 25-40 weeks. There was no death associated with COVID-19 in pregnant women. The obstetric outcomes in pregnant women with COVID-19 include de-creased fetal movement, intrauterine fetal distress, anemia, PROM, preterm labor, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and etc. The most common delivery mode in women affect with COVID-19 was cesarean sec-tion. Expect for one case with MODS, in the majority of the studies reviewed, no severe morbidity or mortality occurred. The neonatal outcomes were stillbirth, prematurity, asphyxia, fetal distress, low birth weight, small for gestational age, large for gestational age, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, disseminated intravascular coagula-tion and neonatal death. In addition, five neonates born to mothers with COVID-19 were positive for SARS-CoV-2. However, the studies report these outcomes but the exact causes of theme are not known. Conclusion: In this systematic review, we summarize the diverse results of studies about the obstetrics and neonatal outcomes following COVID-19. This infection may cause negative outcomes in both mothers and neonates. However, there were evidence about neonate infected with COVID-19, but there is controversial information about the vertical transmission of COVID-19. © 2020, Iranian Journal of Public Health. All rights reserved

The global burden of foodborne parasitic diseases: an update

Foodborne diseases (FBDs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the human population. Accurate information on the burden of FBDs is needed to inform policy makers and allocate appropriate resources for food safety control and intervention. Consequently, in 2006 the WHO launched an initiative to estimate the global burden of FBDs in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). This review gives an update of the progress on evaluating the burden of foodborne parasitic diseases that has been generated by this study. Results to date indicate that parasitic diseases that can be transmitted through food make a substantial contribution to the global burden of disease

Molecular Characterization of Fasciola spp. from Some Parts of Iran

Background: Identification of liver flukes, Fasciola hepatica, and Fasciola gigantica by morphometric parameters is not always reliable due to the overlapping measurements. This study aimed to characterize the liver flukes of animals from different parts of Iran by the genetic markers, ITS1, and COXI. Methods: We collected flukes from infected livestock in six provinces of Iran from Sep to Nov 2016. The flukes were identified by amplification of a 680 bp sequence of ITS1 locus followed by a restriction fragment polymorphism (RFLP) assay. The genetic diversity among isolates was evaluated by amplification and sequencing of a 493 bp fragment of the COXI gene. Results: We obtained 38 specimens from Khuzestan, 22 from Tehran, 10 from Isfahan, 10 from Mazandaran, 4 from Kurdistan, and 3 from Ardabil provinces. PCR-RFLP analysis revealed two patterns, representing F. hepatica, and F. gigantica. Fifty specimens from cattle and sheep exhibited F. hepatica pattern and 37 from the cattle, sheep, buffalo, and goat that of F. gigantica. The phylogeny based on COXI revealed two distinct clades separating F. hepatica from F. gigantica. In our phylogeny, the Iranian F. gigantica isolates showed a distinct separation from the African flukes, while grouped with the East Asia specimens demonstrating a common ancestor. The F. hepatica isolates clustered with the flukes from different parts of the world, including East Asia, Europe, and South America. Conclusion: The present study revealed a substantial genetic difference between F. gigantica populations of Asia and Africa, while F. hepatica isolates from different parts of the world shared high similarities

Genetic diversity in merozoite surface protein (MSP)-1 and MSP-2 genes of Plasmodium falciparum in a major endemic region of Iran

Merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-1) and merozoite surface protein-2 (MSP-2) were used to develop vaccines and to investigate the genetic diversity in Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Iran. Nested polymerase chain reaction amplification was used to determine polymorphisms of block 2 of the MSP-1 and the central domain of MSP-2 genes. A total of 67 microscopically positive P. falciparum infected individuals from a major endemic region, southeast Iran, were included in this trial. Nine alleles of MSP-1 and 11 alleles of MSP-2 were identified. The results showed that amplified product from these surface antigen genes varied in size and there was specific pattern for each isolate. Besides, regarding this pattern, 23 multiple infections with at least 2 alleles were observed. While the endemic regions of malaria in Iran is classified in low to moderate group, but extensive polymorphism was observed for each marker and the MSP-2 central repeat was the most diverse that could be considered in designing malaria vaccine

A Machine Learning Approach for Walker Identification Using Smartphone Sensors

Nowadays, smartphones are equipped with MEMS sensors like accelerometers, gyroscopes, and magnetometers. In this work we exploited this kind of sensors to provide advanced information about the walker bringing the smartphone. In particular, smartphone sensors outputs are used to recognize the identity of the walker and the pose of the device during the walk. If the aforementioned information was known, it could be used to improve the functionalities of specific smartphones. For instance, the recognition of walker identity can be used for theft protection or the device pose can be used to improve the performance of the pedestrian navigation. In this paper, we adopted a decision tree classifier approach to recognize the previously described contexts using data produced by smartphone sensors, obtaining effective results