Investigating event-specific drought attribution using self-organizing maps

Previous studies evaluating anthropogenic influences on the meteorological drivers of drought have found mixed results owing to (1) the complex physical mechanisms which lead to the onset of drought, (2) differences in the characteristics and time scales of drought for different regions of the world, and (3) different approaches to the question of attribution. For a midlatitude, temperate climate like New Zealand, strongly modulated by oceanic influences, summer droughts last on the order of 3 months, and are less strongly linked to persistent temperature anomalies than continental climates. Here we demonstrate the utility of a novel approach for characterizing the meteorological conditions conducive to extreme drought over the North Island of New Zealand, using the January–March 2013 event as a case study. Specifically, we consider the use of self‐organizing map techniques in a multimember coupled climate model ensemble to capture changes in daily circulation, between two 41 year periods (1861–1901 and 1993–2033). Comparisons are made with seasonal pressure and precipitation indices. Our results demonstrate robust (>99% confidence) increases in the likelihood of observing circulation patterns like those of the 2013 drought in the recent‐climate simulations when compared with the early‐climate simulations. Best guess estimates of the fraction of attributable risk range from 0.2 to 0.4, depending on the metric used and threshold considered. Contributions to uncertainty in these attribution statements are discussed

Competition of charge, orbital, and ferromagnetic correlations in layered manganites

The competition of charge, orbital, and ferromagnetic interactions in layered manganites is investigated by magneto-Raman scattering spectroscopy. We find that the colossal magnetoresistance effect in the layered compounds results from the interplay of the orbital and ferromagnetic double-exchange correlations. Inelastic scattering by charge-order fluctuations dominates the quasiparticle dynamics in the ferromagnetic-metal state. The scattering is suppressed at low frequencies, consistent with the opening of a charge-density wave pseudogap.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

Curriculum in early childhood education: critical questions about content, coherence, and control

A continuing struggle over curriculum in early childhood education is evident in contemporary research and debate at national and international levels. This reflects the dominant influence of developmental psychology in international discourses, and in policy frameworks that determine approaches to curriculum, pedagogy, and assessment. Focusing on early childhood education, we argue that this struggle generates critical questions about three significant themes within curriculum theory: content, coherence, and control. We outline two positions from which these themes can be understood: Developmental and Educational Psychology and contemporary policy frameworks. We argue that within and between these positions, curriculum content, coherence, and control are viewed in different and sometimes oppositional ways. Following this analysis, we propose that a focus on ‘working theories’ as a third position offers possibilities for addressing some of these continuing struggles, by exploring different implications for how content, coherence, and control might be understood. We conclude that asking critical questions of curriculum in early childhood education is a necessary endeavour to develop alternative theoretical frameworks for understanding the ways in which curriculum can be considered alongside pedagogy, assessment, play, and learning

Common variants at 2q11.2, 8q21.3, and 11q13.2 are associated with major mood disorders

Bipolar disorder (BPD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) are primary major mood disorders. Recent studies suggest that they share certain psychopathological features and common risk genes, but unraveling the full genetic architecture underlying the risk of major mood disorders remains an important scientific task. The public genome-wide association study (GWAS) data sets offer the opportunity to examine this topic by utilizing large amounts of combined genetic data, which should ultimately allow a better understanding of the onset and development of these illnesses. Genome-wide meta-analysis was performed by combining two GWAS data sets on BPD and MDD (19,637 cases and 18,083 controls), followed by replication analyses for the loci of interest in independent 12,364 cases and 76,633 controls from additional samples that were not included in the two GWAS data sets. The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs10791889 at 11q13.2 was significant in both discovery and replication samples. When combining all samples, this SNP and multiple other SNPs at 2q11.2 (rs717454), 8q21.3 (rs10103191), and 11q13.2 (rs2167457) exhibited genome-wide significant association with major mood disorders. The SNPs in 2q11.2 and 8q21.3 were novel risk SNPs that were not previously reported, and SNPs at 11q13.2 were in high LD with potential BPD risk SNPs implicated in a previous GWAS. The genome-wide significant loci at 2q11.2 and 11q13.2 exhibited strong effects on the mRNA expression of certain nearby genes in cerebellum. In conclusion, we have identified several novel loci associated with major mood disorders, adding further support for shared genetic risk between BPD and MDD. Our study highlights the necessity and importance of mining public data sets to explore risk genes for complex diseases such as mood disorders

The Business Model: Recent Developments and Future Research

This article provides a broad and multifaceted review of the received literature on business models in which the authors examine the business model concept through multiple subject-matter lenses. The review reveals that scholars do not agree on what a business model is and that the literature is developing largely in silos, according to the phenomena of interest of the respective researchers. However, the authors also found emerging common themes among scholars of business models. Specifically, (1) the business model is emerging as a new unit of analysis; (2) business models emphasize a system-level, holistic approach to explaining how firms “do business”; (3) firm activities play an important role in the various conceptualizations of business models that have been proposed; and (4) business models seek to explain how value is created, not just how it is captured. These emerging themes could serve as catalysts for a more unified study of business models

Genome-wide association study identifies 30 Loci Associated with Bipolar Disorder

This paper is dedicated to the memory of Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) founding member and Bipolar disorder working group co-chair Pamela Sklar. We thank the participants who donated their time, experiences and DNA to this research, and to the clinical and scientific teams that worked with them. We are deeply indebted to the investigators who comprise the PGC. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of any funding or regulatory body. Analyses were carried out on the NL Genetic Cluster Computer (http://www.geneticcluster.org ) hosted by SURFsara, and the Mount Sinai high performance computing cluster (http://hpc.mssm.edu).Bipolar disorder is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder. We performed a genome-wide association study including 20,352 cases and 31,358 controls of European descent, with follow-up analysis of 822 variants with P<1x10-4 in an additional 9,412 cases and 137,760 controls. Eight of the 19 variants that were genome-wide significant (GWS, p < 5x10-8) in the discovery GWAS were not GWS in the combined analysis, consistent with small effect sizes and limited power but also with genetic heterogeneity. In the combined analysis 30 loci were GWS including 20 novel loci. The significant loci contain genes encoding ion channels, neurotransmitter transporters and synaptic components. Pathway analysis revealed nine significantly enriched gene-sets including regulation of insulin secretion and endocannabinoid signaling. BDI is strongly genetically correlated with schizophrenia, driven by psychosis, whereas BDII is more strongly correlated with major depressive disorder. These findings address key clinical questions and provide potential new biological mechanisms for BD.This work was funded in part by the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation, Stanley Medical Research Institute, University of Michigan, Pritzker Neuropsychiatric Disorders Research Fund L.L.C., Marriot Foundation and the Mayo Clinic Center for Individualized Medicine, the NIMH Intramural Research Program; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; the UK Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, NIHR, NRS, MRC, Wellcome Trust; European Research Council; German Ministry for Education and Research, German Research Foundation IZKF of Münster, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, ImmunoSensation, the Dr. Lisa-Oehler Foundation, University of Bonn; the Swiss National Science Foundation; French Foundation FondaMental and ANR; Spanish Ministerio de Economía, CIBERSAM, Industria y Competitividad, European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), Generalitat de Catalunya, EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme; BBMRI-NL; South-East Norway Regional Health Authority and Mrs. Throne-Holst; Swedish Research Council, Stockholm County Council, Söderström Foundation; Lundbeck Foundation, Aarhus University; Australia NHMRC, NSW Ministry of Health, Janette M O'Neil and Betty C Lynch

Reproducibility in the absence of selective reporting : An illustration from large-scale brain asymmetry research

Altres ajuts: Max Planck Society (Germany).The problem of poor reproducibility of scientific findings has received much attention over recent years, in a variety of fields including psychology and neuroscience. The problem has been partly attributed to publication bias and unwanted practices such as p-hacking. Low statistical power in individual studies is also understood to be an important factor. In a recent multisite collaborative study, we mapped brain anatomical left-right asymmetries for regional measures of surface area and cortical thickness, in 99 MRI datasets from around the world, for a total of over 17,000 participants. In the present study, we revisited these hemispheric effects from the perspective of reproducibility. Within each dataset, we considered that an effect had been reproduced when it matched the meta-analytic effect from the 98 other datasets, in terms of effect direction and significance threshold. In this sense, the results within each dataset were viewed as coming from separate studies in an "ideal publishing environment," that is, free from selective reporting and p hacking. We found an average reproducibility rate of 63.2% (SD = 22.9%, min = 22.2%, max = 97.0%). As expected, reproducibility was higher for larger effects and in larger datasets. Reproducibility was not obviously related to the age of participants, scanner field strength, FreeSurfer software version, cortical regional measurement reliability, or regional size. These findings constitute an empirical illustration of reproducibility in the absence of publication bias or p hacking, when assessing realistic biological effects in heterogeneous neuroscience data, and given typically-used sample sizes

The Anorexia Nervosa Genetics Initiative (ANGI): Overview and methods

Background: Genetic factors contribute to anorexia nervosa (AN); and the first genome-wide significant locus has been identified. We describe methods and procedures for the Anorexia Nervosa Genetics Initiative (ANGI), an international collaboration designed to rapidly recruit 13,000 individuals with AN and ancestrally matched controls. We present sample characteristics and the utility of an online eating disorder diagnostic questionnaire suitable for large-scale genetic and population research. Methods: ANGI recruited from the United States (US), Australia/New Zealand (ANZ), Sweden (SE), and Denmark (DK). Recruitment was via national registers (SE, DK); treatment centers (US, ANZ, SE, DK); and social and traditional media (US, ANZ, SE). All cases had a lifetime AN diagnosis based on DSM-IV or ICD-10 criteria (excluding amenorrhea). Recruited controls had no lifetime history of disordered eating behaviors. To assess the positive and negative predictive validity of the online eating disorder questionnaire (ED100K-v1), 109 women also completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID), Module H. Results: Blood samples and clinical information were collected from 13,363 individuals with lifetime AN and from controls. Online diagnostic phenotyping was effective and efficient; the validity of the questionnaire was acceptable. Conclusions: Our multi-pronged recruitment approach was highly effective for rapid recruitment and can be used as a model for efforts by other groups. High online presence of individuals with AN rendered the Internet/social media a remarkably effective recruitment tool in some countries. ANGI has substantially augmented Psychiatric Genomics Consortium AN sample collection. ANGI is a registered clinical trial: clinicaltrials.govNCT01916538; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01916538?cond=Anorexia+Nervosa&draw=1&rank=3