Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing

Funder: "Cosmic and electric effects on aerosols and clouds”; Grant(s): (MIS: 5049552)Funder: Villum Fonden; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008398Abstract: Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. We analyse a multi-model ensemble of idealized experiments and a set of simulations of the last millennium and we demonstrate similar global signatures and patterns of forced response in the tropical Pacific, of higher sensitivity for the solar forcing. In the idealized simulations, both solar and GHG forcing warm the equatorial Pacific, enhance precipitation in the central Pacific, and weaken and shift the Walker circulation eastward. Centennial variations in the solar forcing over the last millennium cause similar patterns of enhanced equatorial precipitation and slowdown of the Walker circulation in response to periods with stronger solar forcing. Similar forced patterns albeit of considerably weaker magnitude are identified for variations in GHG concentrations over the 20th century, with the lower sensitivity explained by fast atmospheric adjustments. These findings differ from previous studies that have typically suggested divergent responses in tropical precipitation and circulation between the solar and GHG forcings. We conclude that tropical Walker circulation and precipitation might be more susceptible to solar variability rather than GHG variations during the last-millennium, assuming comparable global mean surface temperature changes

Historical simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

We describe and evaluate historical simulations which use the third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) model and which form part of the UK's contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. These simulations, run at two resolutions, respond to historically evolving forcings such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, land use, and ozone concentrations. We assess the response of the simulations to these historical forcings and compare against the observational record. This includes the evolution of global mean surface temperature, ocean heat content, sea ice extent, ice sheet mass balance, permafrost extent, snow cover, North Atlantic sea surface temperature and circulation, and decadal precipitation. We find that the simulated time evolution of global mean surface temperature broadly follows the observed record but with important quantitative differences which we find are most likely attributable to strong effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols and a weak pattern of sea surface temperature response in the low to middle latitudes to volcanic eruptions. We also find evidence that anthropogenic aerosol forcings play a role in driving the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which are key features of the North Atlantic ocean. Overall, the model historical simulations show many features in common with the observed record over the period 1850–2014 and so provide a basis for future in-depth study of recent climate change

A new observational solar irradiance composite

International audienceVariations of the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) are an important driver for the chemistry, temperature and dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere and ultimately the Earth's climate. Due to the sparce and scattered SSI data sets it is important to establish tools to derive a consistent SSI dataset, including realistic uncertainties. We present the a new SSI composite based on the face values of SSI observations and applying a probabilistic method that takes into account the uncertainty of the data set scale-wise. We will present the data set and discuss its effects on the Earth's atmosphere in relation to SSI reconstruction models

A new observational solar spectral irradiance composite

International audienceVariations in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) are an important driver of the chemistry, temperature, and dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere and ultimately the Earth's climate. To investigate the detailed response of the Earth's atmosphere to SSI variations, a reliable SSI data set is needed. We present the recently published observational SSI composite data set that is based on 20 instruments and has been built by using probabilistic approach that takes into account the scale-dependent uncertainty of each available SSI observation. We compare the variability of this new composite with available SSI reconstructions and discuss the respective modeled responses in the Earth's atmosphere. Also, future work to further improve the dataset are discussed

A new observational solar spectral irradiance composite

International audienceVariations in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) are an important driver of the chemistry, temperature, and dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere and ultimately the Earth's climate. To investigate the detailed response of the Earth's atmosphere to SSI variations, a reliable SSI data set is needed. We present the recently published observational SSI composite data set that is based on 20 instruments and has been built by using probabilistic approach that takes into account the scale-dependent uncertainty of each available SSI observation. We compare the variability of this new composite with available SSI reconstructions and discuss the respective modeled responses in the Earth's atmosphere. Also, future work to further improve the dataset are discussed

Quadrio e la tradizione della pastorale nel Settecento

The 11 year solar‐cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP‐5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period ∼1850–2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP‐5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP‐5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high‐top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (∼70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short‐wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modelled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979–2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high‐pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high‐ and low‐top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.ISSN:0035-9009ISSN:1477-870