274 research outputs found
The motivating operation and negatively reinforced problem behavior. A systematic review.
The concept of motivational operations exerts an increasing influence on the understanding and assessment of problem behavior in people with intellectual and developmental disability. In this systematic review of 59 methodologically robust studies of the influence of motivational operations in negative reinforcement paradigms in this population, we identify themes related to situational and biological variables that have implications for assessment, intervention, and further research. There is now good evidence that motivational operations of differing origins influence negatively reinforced problem behavior, and that these might be subject to manipulation to facilitate favorable outcomes. There is also good evidence that some biological variables warrant consideration in assessment procedures as they predispose the person's behavior to be influenced by specific motivational operations. The implications for assessment and intervention are made explicit with reference to variables that are open to manipulation or that require further research and conceptualization within causal models
Aerosol-cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds - Part 1: Aerosol perturbations
Changes induced by perturbed aerosol conditions in moderately deep mixed-phase convective clouds (cloud top height 5 km) developing along sea-breeze convergence lines are investigated with high-resolution numerical model simulations. The simulations utilise the newly developed Cloud-AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) module for the Unified Model (UM), which allows for the representation of the two-way interaction between cloud and aerosol fields. Simulations are evaluated against observations collected during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) field campaign over the southwestern peninsula of the UK in 2013. The simulations compare favourably with observed thermodynamic profiles, cloud base cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), cloud depth, and radar reflectivity statistics. Including the modification of aerosol fields by cloud microphysical processes improves the correspondence with observed CDNC values and spatial variability, but reduces the agreement with observations for average cloud size and cloud top height. Accumulated precipitation is suppressed for higher-aerosol conditions before clouds become organised along the sea-breeze convergence lines. Changes in precipitation are smaller in simulations with aerosol processing. The precipitation suppression is due to less efficient precipitation production by warm-phase microphysics, consistent with parcel model predictions. In contrast, after convective cells organise along the sea-breeze convergence zone, accumulated precipitation increases with aerosol concentrations. Condensate production increases with the aerosol concentrations due to higher vertical velocities in the convective cores and higher cloud top heights. However, for the highest-aerosol scenarios, no further increase in the condensate production occurs, as clouds grow into an upper-level stable layer. In these cases, the reduced precipitation efficiency (PE) dominates the precipitation response and no further precipitation enhancement occurs. Previous studies of deep convective clouds have related larger vertical velocities under high-aerosol conditions to enhanced latent heating from freezing. In the presented simulations changes in latent heating above the 0°C are negligible, but latent heating from condensation increases with aerosol concentrations. It is hypothesised that this increase is related to changes in the cloud field structure reducing the mixing of environmental air into the convective core. The precipitation response of the deeper mixed-phase clouds along well-established convergence lines can be the opposite of predictions from parcel models. This occurs when clouds interact with a pre-existing thermodynamic environment and cloud field structural changes occur that are not captured by simple parcel model approaches
Gutenberg Richter and Characteristic Earthquake Behavior in Simple Mean-Field Models of Heterogeneous Faults
The statistics of earthquakes in a heterogeneous fault zone is studied
analytically and numerically in the mean field version of a model for a
segmented fault system in a three-dimensional elastic solid. The studies focus
on the interplay between the roles of disorder, dynamical effects, and driving
mechanisms. A two-parameter phase diagram is found, spanned by the amplitude of
dynamical weakening (or ``overshoot'') effects (epsilon) and the normal
distance (L) of the driving forces from the fault. In general, small epsilon
and small L are found to produce Gutenberg-Richter type power law statistics
with an exponential cutoff, while large epsilon and large L lead to a
distribution of small events combined with characteristic system-size events.
In a certain parameter regime the behavior is bistable, with transitions back
and forth from one phase to the other on time scales determined by the fault
size and other model parameters. The implications for realistic earthquake
statistics are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, RevTex, 6 figures (ps, eps
Aerosol–cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds – Part 2: Meteorological ensemble
The relative contribution of variations in meteorological and aerosol initial and boundary conditions to the variability in modelled cloud properties is investigated with a high-resolution ensemble (30 members). In the investigated case, moderately deep convection develops along sea-breeze convergence zones over the southwestern peninsula of the UK. A detailed analysis of the mechanism of aerosol–cloud interactions in this case has been presented in the first part of this study (Miltenberger et al. 2018).
The meteorological ensemble (10 members) varies by about a factor of 2 in boundary-layer moisture convergence, surface precipitation, and cloud fraction, while aerosol number concentrations are varied by a factor of 100 between the three considered aerosol scenarios. If ensemble members are paired according to the meteorological initial and boundary conditions, aerosol-induced changes are consistent across the ensemble. Aerosol-induced changes in CDNC (cloud droplet number concentration), cloud fraction, cell number and size, outgoing shortwave radiation (OSR), instantaneous and mean precipitation rates, and precipitation efficiency (PE) are statistically significant at the 5 % level, but changes in cloud top height or condensate gain are not. In contrast, if ensemble members are not paired according to meteorological conditions, aerosol-induced changes are statistically significant only for CDNC, cell number and size, outgoing shortwave radiation, and precipitation efficiency. The significance of aerosol-induced changes depends on the aerosol scenarios compared, i.e. an increase or decrease relative to the standard scenario.
A simple statistical analysis of the results suggests that a large number of realisations (typically > 100) of meteorological conditions within the uncertainty of a single day are required for retrieving robust aerosol signals in most cloud properties. Only for CDNC and shortwave radiation small samples are sufficient.
While the results are strictly only valid for the investigated case, the presented evidence combined with previous studies highlights the necessity for careful consideration of intrinsic predictability, meteorological conditions, and co-variability between aerosol and meteorological conditions in observational or modelling studies on aerosol indirect effects
Statistics of Earthquakes in Simple Models of Heterogeneous Faults
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are
studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical
effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point
whose properties yield power law scaling of earthquake statistics. Various
dynamical effects can change the behavior to a distribution of small events
combined with characteristic system size events. The studies employ various
analytic methods as well as simulations.Comment: 4 pages, RevTex, 3 figures (eps-files), uses eps
Static and Dynamic Properties of Inhomogeneous Elastic Media on Disordered Substrate
The pinning of an inhomogeneous elastic medium by a disordered substrate is
studied analytically and numerically. The static and dynamic properties of a
-dimensional system are shown to be equivalent to those of the well known
problem of a -dimensional random manifold embedded in -dimensions.
The analogy is found to be very robust, applicable to a wide range of elastic
media, including those which are amorphous or nearly-periodic, with local or
nonlocal elasticity. Also demonstrated explicitly is the equivalence between
the dynamic depinning transition obtained at a constant driving force, and the
self-organized, near-critical behavior obtained by a (small) constant velocity
drive.Comment: 20 pages, RevTeX. Related (p)reprints also available at
http://matisse.ucsd.edu/~hwa/pub.htm
Implementation of a double moment cloud microphysics scheme in the UK met office regional numerical weather prediction model
Cloud microphysics parametrizations control the transfer of water between phases and hydrometeor species in numerical weather prediction and climate models. As a fundamental component of weather modelling systems cloud microphysics can determine the intensity and timing of precipitation, the extent and longevity of cloud cover and its impact on radiative balance, and directly influence near surface weather metrics such as temperature and wind. In this paper we introduce and demonstrate the performance of a double moment cloud microphysical scheme (CASIM: Cloud AeroSol Interacting Microphysics) in both midlatitude and tropical settings using the same model configuration. Comparisons are made against a control configuration using the current operational single moment cloud microphysics, and CASIM configurations that use fixed in-cloud droplet number or compute cloud droplet number concentration from the aerosol environment. We demonstrate that configuring CASIM as a single moment scheme results in precipitation rate histograms that match the operational single moment microphysics. In the midlatitude setting, results indicate that CASIM performs as well as the single moment microphysics configuration, but improves certain aspects of the surface precipitation field such as greater extent of light (1 mm · hr⁻¹) rain around frontal precipitation features. In the tropical setting, CASIM outperforms the single moment cloud microphysics as evident from improved comparison with radar derived precipitation rates
Atmospheric Ice‐Nucleating Particles in the Dusty Tropical Atlantic
Desert dust is one of the most important atmospheric ice-nucleating aerosol species around the globe. However, there have been very few measurements of ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in dusty air close to desert sources. In this study we report the concentration of INPs in dust laden air over the tropical Atlantic within a few days' transport of one of the world's most important atmospheric sources of desert dust, the Sahara. These measurements were performed as part of the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Dust campaign based in Cape Verde, during August 2015. INP concentrations active in the immersion mode, determined using a droplet-on-filter technique, ranged from around 10² m⁻³ at -12°C to around 10⁵ m⁻³ at -23°C. There is about 2 orders of magnitude variability in INP concentration for a particular temperature, which is determined largely by the variability in atmospheric dust loading. These measurements were made at altitudes from 30 to 3,500 m in air containing a range of dust loadings. The ice active site density (n s ) for desert dust dominated aerosol derived from our measurements agrees with several laboratory-based parameterizations for ice nucleation by desert dust within 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. The small variability in n s values determined from our measurements (within about 1 order of magnitude) is striking given that the back trajectory analysis suggests that the sources of dust were geographically diverse. This is consistent with previous work, which indicates that desert dust's ice-nucleating activity is only weakly dependent on source
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Secondary Ice Production : Current State of the Science and Recommendations for the Future
Measured ice crystal concentrations in natural clouds at modest supercooling (temperature ~>-10°C) are often orders of magnitude greater than the number concentration of primary ice nucleating particles. Therefore, it has long been proposed that a secondary ice production process must exist that is able to rapidly enhance the number concentration of the ice population following initial primary ice nucleation events. Secondary ice production is important for the prediction of ice crystal concentration and the subsequent evolution of some types of clouds, but the physical basis of the process is not understood and the production rates are not well constrained. In November 2015 an international workshop was held to discuss the current state of the science and future work to constrain and improve our understanding of secondary ice production processes. Examples and recommendations for in situ observations, remote sensing, laboratory investigations, and modeling approaches are presented.Peer reviewe
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