Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Acknowledgments: This paper originates from the “Ecological Interactions and Range Evolution Under Environmental Change” and “RangeShifter” working groups, supported by the Synthesis Centre of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DFG-FZT-118), DIVERSITAS, and its core projects bioDISCOVERY and bioGENESIS. Supported by the Canada Research Chair, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science (A.G.); the University of Florida Foundation (R.D.H.); KU Leuven Research Fund grant PF/2010/07, ERA-Net BiodivERsA TIPPINGPOND, and Belspo IAP SPEEDY (L.D.M.); European Union Biodiversity Observation Network grant EU-BON-FP7-308454 (J.-B.M. and G.P.); KU Leuven Research Fund (J.P.); and NSF grants DEB-1119877 and PLR-1417754 and the McDonnell Foundation (M.C.U.).Peer reviewedPostprin

Spatially explicit poisoning risk affects survival rates of an obligate scavenger

Obligate scavengers such as vultures provide critical ecosystem services and their populations have undergone severe declines in Asia and Africa. Intentional poisoning is a major threat to vultures in Africa, yet the impact on vulture populations of where poisoned carcasses are positioned is not known. We used re-sightings of 183 African white-backed vultures captured and tagged in two regions of South Africa, some 200 km apart, to estimate spatial differences in relative survival rates across life stages. Juvenile survival rates were similar in the two regions, whilst subadult and adult survival rates differed significantly. Using agent-based modelling, we show that this pattern of relative survival rates is consistent between regions that differ in intensity of poisoning, despite the proximity of the two regions. This may have important consequences for vulture conservation and the targeting of conservation efforts, particularly with regard to the efficacy of “vulture safe zones” around vulture breeding populations

Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends

Conservation biologists often assume that rare (or less abundant) species are more likely to be declining under anthropogenic change. Here, the authors synthesise population trend data for ~2000 animal species to show that population trends cover a wide spectrum of change from losses to gains, which are not related to species rarity

A global biodiversity observing system to unite monitoring and guide action

The rate and extent of global biodiversity change is surpassing our ability to measure, monitor and forecast trends. We propose an interconnected worldwide system of observation networks — a global biodiversity observing system (GBiOS) — to coordinate monitoring worldwide and inform action to reach international biodiversity targets.acceptedVersio

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species

Effective monitoring of freshwater fish

Freshwater ecosystems constitute only a small fraction of the planet’s water resources, yet support much of its diversity, with freshwater fish accounting for more species than birds, mammals, amphibians, or reptiles. Fresh waters are, however, particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, including habitat loss, climate and land use change, nutrient enrichment, and biological invasions. This environmental degradation, combined with unprecedented rates of biodiversity change, highlights the importance of robust and replicable programmes to monitor freshwater fish assemblages. Such monitoring programmes can have diverse aims, including confirming the presence of a single species (e.g. early detection of alien species), tracking changes in the abundance of threatened species, or documenting long-term temporal changes in entire communities. Irrespective of their motivation, monitoring programmes are only fit for purpose if they have clearly articulated aims and collect data that can meet those aims. This review, therefore, highlights the importance of identifying the key aims in monitoring programmes, and outlines the different methods of sampling freshwater fish that can be used to meet these aims. We emphasise that investigators must address issues around sampling design, statistical power, species’ detectability, taxonomy, and ethics in their monitoring programmes. Additionally, programmes must ensure that high-quality monitoring data are properly curated and deposited in repositories that will endure. Through fostering improved practice in freshwater fish monitoring, this review aims to help programmes improve understanding of the processes that shape the Earth's freshwater ecosystems, and help protect these systems in face of rapid environmental change

Communal roosting sites are potential ecological traps: experimental evidence in a Neotropical harvestman

Situations in which animals preferentially settle in low-quality habitat are referred to as ecological traps, and species that aggregate in response to conspecific cues, such as scentmarks, that persist after the animals leave the areamay be especially vulnerable. We tested this hypothesis on harvestmen (Prionostemma sp.) that roost communally in the rainforest understory. Based on evidence that these animals preferentially settle in sites marked with conspecific scent, we predicted that established aggregation sites would continue to attract new recruits even if the animals roosting there perished. To test this prediction, we simulated intense predation by repeatedly removing all individuals from 10 established roosts, and indeed, these sites continued to attract new harvestmen. A more likely reason for an established roost to become unsuitable is a loss of overstory canopy cover caused by treefalls. To investigate this scenario, without felling trees, we established 16 new communal roosts by translocating harvestmen into previously unused sites. Half the release sites were located in intact forest, and half were located in treefall gaps, but canopy cover had no significant effect on the recruitment rate. These results support the inference that communal roost sites are potential ecological traps for species that aggregate in response to conspecific scent

Earlier breeding, lower success: does the spatial scale of climatic conditions matter in a migratory passerine bird?

Following over 20 years of research on the climatic effects on biodiversity we now have strong evidence that climate change affects phenology, fitness, and distribution ranges of different taxa, including birds. Bird phenology likely responds to changes in local weather. It is also affected by climatic year‐to‐year variations on larger scales. Although such scale‐related effects are common in ecology, most studies analyzing the effects of climate change were accomplished using climatic information on a single spatial scale. In this study, we aimed at determining the scale‐dependent sensitivity of breeding phenology and success to climate change in a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). For both annual broods, we investigated effects of local weather (local scale) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, large scale) on the timing of breeding and breeding success. Consistent with previous studies in migratory birds we found that barn swallows in Eastern Germany bred progressively earlier. At the same time, they showed reduced breeding success over time in response to recent climatic changes. Responses to climatic variation were observed on both local and large climatic scales, but they differed with respect to the ecological process considered. Specifically, we found that the timing of breeding was primarily influenced by large‐scale NAO variations and to a lesser extent by local weather on the breeding grounds. Conversely, climatic conditions on the local scale affected breeding success, exclusively. The observed decrease in breeding success over years is likely a consequence of scale‐related mismatches between climatic conditions during different breeding phases. This provides further evidence that a species' response of earlier breeding may not be enough to cope with climate change. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the response of ecological processes along different climatic scales in order to better understand the complexity of climate change effects on biodiversity

High long-term survival and asymmetric movements in a reintroduced metapopulation of Cinereous vultures

International audiencePost-release mortality and movements are top proximate factors of translocation failure. Yet, survival and movement reflect different demographic and behavioral processes and may therefore have contrasted responses to management, although they are often very difficult to disentangle in animal populations. To provide guidance in animal translocations, we discriminated the respective roles of survival and movement in the long-term dynamic of a translocated metapopulation of cinereous vultures (Aegypius monachus) in France using multi-event capture-recapture analyses of reintroduced (n=119) and wild-born individuals (n=163) observations. Annual apparent survival rates were high and structured in age (>0.8 for young and >0.9 for adults) and did not differ between individuals origin (wild-born or released), release methods (aviary or hacking) nor between regions (Alps and Causses), except for those released in the Alps experiencing a reduced survival for one year after release. In contrast, age structure movements differed between populations and origin status. Wild-born young from the Causses were more erratic than those from the Alps and older individuals, whereas vultures reintroduced in the Causses demonstrated restricted movements during their first year after release. Despite such asymmetric movements, we overall highlight a strong tropism of individuals whatever the region and their origin. Since movement and survival were respectively higher and lower in young compared to adults, we recommend to first release adults in the primary stage of metapopulation translocations for increasing the establishment success at the release site. Further releasing young and securing successful breeding into the wild would increase demographic growth and between population connections