Bottom-up drivers of future fire regimes in western boreal North America

Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fires. However, an increase in deciduous forest cover is also predicted across the region, potentially decreasing flammability. In this study, we use an individual tree-based forest model to test bottom-up (i.e. fuels) vs top-down (i.e. climate) controls on fire activity and project future forest and wildfire dynamics. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced is an individual tree-based forest model that has been successfully updated and validated within the North American boreal zone. We updated the model to better characterize fire ignition and behavior in relation to litter and fire weather conditions, allowing for further interactions between vegetation, soils, fire, and climate. Model output following updates showed good agreement with combustion observations at individual sites within boreal Alaska and western Canada. We then applied the updated model at sites within interior Alaska and the Northwest Territories to simulate wildfire and forest response to climate change under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Results suggest that changing climate will act to decrease biomass and increase deciduous fraction in many regions of boreal North America. These changes are accompanied by decreases in fire probability and average fire intensity, despite fuel drying, indicating a negative feedback of fuel loading on wildfire. These simulations demonstrate the importance of dynamic fuels and dynamic vegetation in predicting future forest and wildfire conditions. The vegetation and wildfire changes predicted here have implications for large-scale changes in vegetation composition, biomass, and wildfire severity across boreal North America, potentially resulting in further feedbacks to regional and even global climate and carbon cycling

Bottom-Up Drivers of Future Fire Regimes in Western Boreal North America

Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fires. However, an increase in deciduous forest cover is also predicted across the region, potentially decreasing flammability. In this study, we use an individual tree-based forest model to test bottom-up (i.e. fuels) vs top-down (i.e. climate) controls on fire activity and project future forest and wildfire dynamics. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced is an individual tree-based forest model that has been successfully updated and validated within the North American boreal zone. We updated the model to better characterize fire ignition and behavior in relation to litter and fire weather conditions, allowing for further interactions between vegetation, soils, fire, and climate. Model output following updates showed good agreement with combustion observations at individual sites within boreal Alaska and western Canada. We then applied the updated model at sites within interior Alaska and the Northwest Territories to simulate wildfire and forest response to climate change under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Results suggest that changing climate will act to decrease biomass and increase deciduous fraction in many regions of boreal North America. These changes are accompanied by decreases in fire probability and average fire intensity, despite fuel drying, indicating a negative feedback of fuel loading on wildfire. These simulations demonstrate the importance of dynamic fuels and dynamic vegetation in predicting future forest and wildfire conditions. The vegetation and wildfire changes predicted here have implications for large-scale changes in vegetation composition, biomass, and wildfire severity across boreal North America, potentially resulting in further feedbacks to regional and even global climate and carbon cycling

Patterns of Ecosystem Structure and Wildfire Carbon Combustion Across Six Ecoregions of the North American Boreal Forest

Increases in fire frequency, extent, and severity are expected to strongly impact the structure and function of boreal forest ecosystems. An important function of the boreal forest is its ability to sequester and store carbon (C). Increasing disturbance from wildfires, emitting large amounts of C to the atmosphere, may create a positive feedback to climate warming. Variation in ecosystem structure and function throughout the boreal forest is important for predicting the effects of climate warming and changing fire regimes on C dynamics. In this study, we compiled data on soil characteristics, stand structure, pre-fire C pools, C loss from fire, and the potential drivers of these C metrics from 527 sites distributed across six ecoregions of North America’s western boreal forests. We assessed structural and functional differences between these fire-prone ecoregions using data from 417 recently burned sites (2004–2015) and estimated ecoregion-specific relationships between soil characteristics and depth from 167 of these sites plus an additional 110 sites (27 burned, 83 unburned). We found that northern boreal ecoregions were generally older, stored and emitted proportionally more belowground than aboveground C, and exhibited lower rates of C accumulation over time than southern ecoregions. We present ecoregion-specific estimates of depth-wise soil characteristics that are important for predicting C combustion from fire. As climate continues to warm and disturbance from wildfires increases, the C dynamics of these fire-prone ecoregions are likely to change with significant implications for the global C cycle and its feedbacks to climate change

Predictive models of insulin resistance derived from simple morphometric and biochemical indices related to obesity and the metabolic syndrome in baboons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-human primates are valuable models for the study of insulin resistance and human obesity. In baboons, insulin sensitivity levels can be evaluated directly with the euglycemic clamp and is highly predicted by adiposity, metabolic markers of obesity and impaired glucose metabolism (i.e. percent body fat by DXA and HbA_1c). However, a simple method to screen and identify obese insulin resistant baboons for inclusion in interventional studies is not available.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied a population of twenty baboons with the euglycemic clamp technique to characterize a population of obese nondiabetic, insulin resistant baboons, and used a multivariate linear regression analysis (adjusted for gender) to test different predictive models of insulin sensitivity (insulin-stimulated glucose uptake = Rd) using abdominal circumference and fasting plasma insulin. Alternatively, we tested in a separate baboon population (n = 159), a simpler model based on body weight and fasting plasma glucose to predict the whole-body insulin sensitivity (Rd/SSPI) derived from the clamp.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the first model, abdominal circumference explained 59% of total insulin mediated glucose uptake (Rd). A second model, which included fasting plasma insulin (log transformed) and abdominal circumference, explained 64% of Rd. Finally, the model using body weight and fasting plasma glucose explained 51% of Rd/SSPI. Interestingly, we found that percent body fat was directly correlated with the adipocyte insulin resistance index (r = 0.755, p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In baboons, simple morphometric measurements of adiposity/obesity, (i.e. abdominal circumference), plus baseline markers of glucose/lipid metabolism, (i.e. fasting plasma glucose and insulin) provide a feasible method to screen and identify overweight/obese insulin resistant baboons for inclusion in interventional studies aimed to study human obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus.</p

Enabling Space Exploration Medical System Development Using a Tool Ecosystem

The NASA Human Research Program's (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element is utilizing a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to enhance the development of systems engineering products that will be used to advance medical system designs for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. In support of future missions, the team is capturing content such as system behaviors, functional decompositions, architecture, system requirements and interfaces, and recommendations for clinical capabilities and resources in Systems Modeling Language (SysML) models. As these products mature, SysML models provide a way for ExMC to capture relationships among the various products, which includes supporting more integrated and multi-faceted views of future medical systems. In addition to using SysML models, HRP and ExMC are developing supplementary tools to support two key functions: 1) prioritizing current and future research activities for exploration missions in an objective manner; and 2) enabling risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This paper will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, additional SysML models, a database of system component options, and data visualizations. It also includes a review of an initial Pilot Project focused on enabling medical system trade studies utilizing data that is coordinated across tools for consistent outputs (e.g., mission risk metrics that are associated with medical system mass values and medical conditions addressed). This first Pilot Project demonstrated successful operating procedures and integration across tools. Finally, the paper will also cover a second Pilot Project that utilizes tool enhancements such as medical system optimization capabilities, post-processing, and visualization of generated data for subject matter expert review, and increased integration amongst the tools themselves

Oxygen: A Fundamental Property Regulating Pelagic Ecosystem Structure in the Coastal Southeastern Tropical Pacific

Background: In the southeastern tropical Pacific anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) abundance have recently fluctuated on multidecadal scales and food and temperature have been proposed as the key parameters explaining these changes. However, ecological and paleoecological studies, and the fact that anchovies and sardines are favored differently in other regions, raise questions about the role of temperature. Here we investigate the role of oxygen in structuring fish populations in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem that has evolved over anoxic conditions and is one of the world's most productive ecosystems in terms of forage fish. This study is particularly relevant given that the distribution of oxygen in the ocean is changing with uncertain consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings: A comprehensive data set is used to show how oxygen concentration and oxycline depth affect the abundance and distribution of pelagic fish. We show that the effects of oxygen on anchovy and sardine are opposite. Anchovy flourishes under relatively low oxygen conditions while sardine avoid periods/areas with low oxygen concentration and restricted habitat. Oxygen consumption, trophic structure and habitat compression play a fundamental role in fish dynamics in this important ecosystem. Conclusions/Significance: For the ocean off Peru we suggest that a key process, the need to breathe, has been neglected previously. Inclusion of this missing piece allows the development of a comprehensive conceptual model of pelagic fish populations and change in an ocean ecosystem impacted by low oxygen. Should current trends in oxygen in the ocean continue similar effects may be evident in other coastal upwelling ecosystems

Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001-2019

Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadian boreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change, which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the region from a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically important to track the spatiotemporal changes in burned area and fire carbon emissions over time. Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001-2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m (meters) resolution that utilizes finer-scale 30 m Landsat imagery to account for land cover unsuitable for burning. This method strictly balances omission and commission errors at 500 m to derive accurate landscape- and regional-scale burned-area estimates. Using this new burned-area product, we developed statistical models to predict burn depth and carbon combustion for the same period within the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) core and extended domain. Statistical models were constrained using a database of field observations across the domain and were related to a variety of response variables including remotely sensed indicators of fire severity, fire weather indices, local climate, soils, and topographic indicators. The burn depth and aboveground combustion models performed best, with poorer performance for belowground combustion. We estimate 2.37×106 ha (2.37 Mha) burned annually between 2001-2019 over the ABoVE domain (2.87 Mha across all of Alaska and Canada), emitting 79.3 ± 27.96 Tg (±1 standard deviation) of carbon (C) per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 ± 1.17 kg C m-2. Mean combustion and burn depth displayed a general gradient of higher severity in the northwestern portion of the domain to lower severity in the south and east. We also found larger-fire years and later-season burning were generally associated with greater mean combustion. Our estimates are generally consistent with previous efforts to quantify burned area, fire carbon emissions, and their drivers in regions within boreal North America; however, we generally estimate higher burned area and carbon emissions due to our use of Landsat imagery, greater availability of field observations, and improvements in modeling. The burned area and combustion datasets described here (the ABoVE Fire Emissions Database, or ABoVE-FED) can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science

Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems

Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.Fil: Todd, Robert E.. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Estados UnidosFil: Chavez, Francisco. Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Clayton, Sophie. Old Dominion University; Estados UnidosFil: Cravatte, Sophie E.. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; Francia. Universite de Toulouse; FranciaFil: Goes, Marlos P.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Graco, Michelle I.. Instituto del Mar del Peru; PerúFil: Lin, Xiaopei. Ocean University of China; ChinaFil: Sprintall, Janet. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zilberman, Nathalie V.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Archer, Matthew. California Institute of Technology; Estados UnidosFil: Arístegui, Javier. Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria; EspañaFil: Balmaseda, Magdalena A.. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Bane, John M.. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Baringer, Molly O.. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory ; Estados UnidosFil: Barth, John A.. State University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Beal, Lisa M.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Brandt, Peter. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; AlemaniaFil: Calil, Paulo H.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande; BrasilFil: Campos, Edmo. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Centurioni, Luca R.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Chidichimo, María Paz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; ArgentinaFil: Cirano, Mauro. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Cronin, Meghan F.. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Curchitser, Enrique N.. Rutgers University; Estados UnidosFil: Davis, Russ E.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Dengler, Marcus. Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel; AlemaniaFil: DeYoung, Brad. Memorial University of Newfoundland; CanadáFil: Dong, Shenfu. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Escribano, Ruben. Universidad de Concepción; ChileFil: Fassbender, Andrea J.. Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; Estados Unido

Modulation of Cytochrome P450 Metabolism and Transport across Intestinal Epithelial Barrier by Ginger Biophenolics

Natural and complementary therapies in conjunction with mainstream cancer care are steadily gaining popularity. Ginger extract (GE) confers significant health-promoting benefits owing to complex additive and/or synergistic interactions between its bioactive constituents. Recently, we showed that preservation of natural ‘‘milieu’’ confers superior anticancer activity on GE over its constituent phytochemicals, 6-gingerol (6G), 8-gingerol (8G), 10-gingerol (10G) and 6-shogaol (6S), through enterohepatic recirculation. Here we further evaluate and compare the effects of GE and its major bioactive constituents on cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzyme activity in human liver microsomes by monitoring metabolites of CYPspecific substrates using LC/MS/MS detection methods. Our data demonstrate that individual gingerols are potent inhibitors of CYP isozymes, whereas GE exhibits a much higher half-maximal inhibition value, indicating no possible herb-drug interactions. However, GE’s inhibition of CYP1A2 and CYP2C8 reflects additive interactions among the constituents. In addition, studies performed to evaluate transporter-mediated intestinal efflux using Caco-2 cells revealed that GE and its phenolics are not substrates of P-glycoprotein (Pgp). Intriguingly, however, 10G and 6S were not detected in the receiver compartment, indicating possible biotransformation across the Caco-2 monolayer. These data strengthen the notion that an interplay of complex interactions among ginger phytochemicals when fed as whole extract dictates its bioactivity highlighting the importance of consuming whole foods over single agents. Our study substantiates the need for an indepth analysis of hepatic biotransformation events and distribution profiles of GE and its active phenolics for the design of safe regimens

Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Todd, R. E., Chavez, F. P., Clayton, S., Cravatte, S., Goes, M., Greco, M., Ling, X., Sprintall, J., Zilberman, N., V., Archer, M., Aristegui, J., Balmaseda, M., Bane, J. M., Baringer, M. O., Barth, J. A., Beal, L. M., Brandt, P., Calil, P. H. R., Campos, E., Centurioni, L. R., Chidichimo, M. P., Cirano, M., Cronin, M. F., Curchitser, E. N., Davis, R. E., Dengler, M., deYoung, B., Dong, S., Escribano, R., Fassbender, A. J., Fawcett, S. E., Feng, M., Goni, G. J., Gray, A. R., Gutierrez, D., Hebert, D., Hummels, R., Ito, S., Krug, M., Lacan, F., Laurindo, L., Lazar, A., Lee, C. M., Lengaigne, M., Levine, N. M., Middleton, J., Montes, I., Muglia, M., Nagai, T., Palevsky, H., I., Palter, J. B., Phillips, H. E., Piola, A., Plueddemann, A. J., Qiu, B., Rodrigues, R. R., Roughan, M., Rudnick, D. L., Rykaczewski, R. R., Saraceno, M., Seim, H., Sen Gupta, A., Shannon, L., Sloyan, B. M., Sutton, A. J., Thompson, L., van der Plas, A. K., Volkov, D., Wilkin, J., Zhang, D., & Zhang, L. Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2010); 423, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00423.Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.RT was supported by The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research at WHOI. FC was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. MGo was funded by NSF and NOAA/AOML. XL was funded by China’s National Key Research and Development Projects (2016YFA0601803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41490641, 41521091, and U1606402), and the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (2017ASKJ01). JS was supported by NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (Award NA15OAR4320071). DZ was partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063. BS was supported by IMOS and CSIRO’s Decadal Climate Forecasting Project. We gratefully acknowledge the wide range of funding sources from many nations that have enabled the observations and analyses reviewed here