Pathways Analysis for State Proliferators

A computational tool to assess the most likely path a state proliferator would take in making a nuclear weapon was created in a Bayesian network. The purpose of this work was to create a tool to facilitate analysts and policymakers in learning about state proliferation. In carrying out this work, a previous Bayesian network based on nuclear weapon proliferation was expanded to include dual-use export controlled technologies. The constant nodes in the network quantifying technical capability, international networking, and available infrastructure were developed to be based on pertinent characteristics that were appropriately weighted. To verify the network, nine historical cases of state proliferation were tested over time, and the enrichment and weapon pathways were graphed. The network sufficiently modeled the cases, so it was concluded that, while one can never truly being able to sufficiently validate a network of this type, sufficient verification was achieved. The tool was used to gain knowledge and insight concerning technology transfers with four countries in hypothetical cases. This exercise proved that the network can in fact be used to learn about state proliferation under different policies and conditions

Distilled: The Narrative Transformed (Exhibition Catalogue)

Inspired by place and process, Pinkney Herbert\u27s work is a spirited exploration in color and line derived from the sights, sounds, and energies of the two principal cities – Memphis and New York – in which this body of work was created. Graffiti-like gestures scrawl atop digital prints, which are collaged and integrated into his paintings. In this 30-year survey, we follow Pinkney Herbert on his transformative journey from the narrative into abstraction

3-(3-Chloro­anilino)-1-(3,5-dimethyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl)propan-1-one

In the mol­ecule of the title compound, C14H16ClN3O, the benzene and pyrazole rings are oriented at a dihedral angle of 3.50 (3)°. In the crystal structure, inter­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bonds link the mol­ecules into chains. A π–π contact between the benzene and pyrazole rings [centroid–centroid distance = 3.820 (3) Å] may further stabilize the structure

Temporary Bridging Agents for use in Drilling and Completion of Enhanced Geothermal Systems

CSI Technologies, in conjunction with Alta Rock Energy and the University of Utah have undergone a study investigating materials and mechanisms with potential for use in Enhanced Geothermal Systems wells as temporary diverters or lost circulation materials. Studies were also conducted with regards to particle size distribution and sealing effectiveness using a lab-scale slot testing apparatus to simulate fractures. From the slot testing a numerical correlation was developed to determine the optimal PSD for a given fracture size. Field trials conducted using materials from this study were also successful

Scope for Credit Risk Diversification

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian risk factors and explore the potential for risk diversification. Where possible the results are generalised to non-Gaussian distributions. The theoretical results indicate that if the firm parameters are heterogeneous but come from a common distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active portfolio management. However, if the firm parameters come from different distributions, then further risk reduction is possible by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk

Metabolic evolution and the self-organization of ecosystems

Metabolism mediates the flow of matter and energy through the biosphere. We examined how metabolic evolution shapes ecosystems by reconstructing it in the globally abundant oceanic phytoplankter Prochlorococcus To understand what drove observed evolutionary patterns, we interpreted them in the context of its population dynamics, growth rate, and light adaptation, and the size and macromolecular and elemental composition of cells. This multilevel view suggests that, over the course of evolution, there was a steady increase in Prochlorococcus' metabolic rate and excretion of organic carbon. We derived a mathematical framework that suggests these adaptations lower the minimal subsistence nutrient concentration of cells, which results in a drawdown of nutrients in oceanic surface waters. This, in turn, increases total ecosystem biomass and promotes the coevolution of all cells in the ecosystem. Additional reconstructions suggest that Prochlorococcus and the dominant cooccurring heterotrophic bacterium SAR11 form a coevolved mutualism that maximizes their collective metabolic rate by recycling organic carbon through complementary excretion and uptake pathways. Moreover, the metabolic codependencies of Prochlorococcus and SAR11 are highly similar to those of chloroplasts and mitochondria within plant cells. These observations lead us to propose a general theory relating metabolic evolution to the self-amplification and self-organization of the biosphere. We discuss the implications of this framework for the evolution of Earth's biogeochemical cycles and the rise of atmospheric oxygen.Simons Foundation (Grant SCOPE 329108)Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (Grant 3778)Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (Grant 495.01

The Initial Response to the Boston Marathon Bombing

We discuss the strengths of the medical response to the Boston Marathon bombings that led to the excellent outcomes. Potential shortcomings were recognized, and lessons learned will provide a foundation for further improvements applicable to all institutions

The Role of Industry, Geography and Firm Heterogeneity in Credit Risk Diversification

In theory the potential for credit risk diversification for banks could be substantial. Portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. We propose a model for exploring these dimensions of credit risk diversification: across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity matters a great deal for capturing differences in simulated credit loss distributions. Imposing homogeneity results in overly skewed and fat-tailed loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk factor shocks: increased parameter heterogeneity greatly reduces shock sensitivity. Allowing for regional parameter heterogeneity seems to better approximate the loss distributions generated by the fully heterogeneous model than allowing just for industry heterogeneity. The regional model also exhibits less shock sensitivity

Understanding, diagnosing, and treating Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome - State of the art: Report of the 2nd international meeting at the Charité fatigue center.

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) is a devastating disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Due to the 2019 pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we are facing a significant increase of ME/CFS prevalence. On May 11th to 12th, 2023, the second international ME/CFS conference of the Charité Fatigue Center was held in Berlin, Germany, focusing on pathomechanisms, diagnosis, and treatment. During the two-day conference, more than 100 researchers from various research fields met on-site and over 700 attendees participated online to discuss the state of the art and novel findings in this field. Key topics from the conference included: the role of the immune system, dysfunction of endothelial and autonomic nervous system, and viral reactivation. Furthermore, there were presentations on innovative diagnostic measures and assessments for this complex disease, cutting-edge treatment approaches, and clinical studies. Despite the increased public attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the subsequent rise of Long COVID-19 cases, and the rise of funding opportunities to unravel the pathomechanisms underlying ME/CFS, this severe disease remains highly underresearched. Future adequately funded research efforts are needed to further explore the disease etiology and to identify diagnostic markers and targeted therapies

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries