Influence of Fault System Geometry and Slip Rates on the Relative Role of Coseismic and Interseismic Stresses on Earthquake Triggering and Recurrence Variability

We model Coulomb stress transfer (CST) due to 30 strong earthquakes occurring on normal faults since 1509 CE in Calabria, Italy, including the influence of interseismic loading, and compare the results to existing studies of stress interaction from the Central and Southern Apennines, Italy. The three normal fault systems have different geometries and long‐term slip‐rates. We investigate the extent to which stress transfer can influence the occurrence of future earthquakes and what factors may govern the variability in earthquake recurrence in different fault systems. The Calabrian, Central Apennines, and Southern Apennines fault systems have 91%, 73%, and 70% of faults with mean positive cumulative CST in the time considered; this is due to fewer faults across strike, more across strike stress reductions, and greater along‐strike spacing in the three regions respectively. In regions with close along strike spacing or few faults across strike, such as Calabria and Southern Apennines, the stress loading history is mostly dominated by interseismic loading and most faults are positively stressed before an earthquake occur on them (96% of all faults that ruptured in Calabria; 94% of faults in Southern Apennines), and some of the strongest earthquakes occur on faults with the highest mean cumulative stress of all faults prior to the earthquake. In the Central Apennines, where across strike interactions are the predominant process, 79% of earthquakes occur on faults positively stressed. The results highlight that fault system geometry plays a central role in characterizing the stress evolution associated with earthquake recurrence

Temporally constant quaternary uplift rates and their relationship with extensional upper-plate faults in south Crete (Greece), constrained with 36Cl cosmogenic exposure dating

In order to investigate how active upper-plate faults in Crete influence uplift above the Hellenic subduction zone we mapped deformed Late Quaternary marine terraces along 17 profiles, across strike of the South Central Crete Fault (SCCF), identified and dated palaeoshorelines using in-situ 36Cl exposure dating on wave-cut platforms, correlated them with the Quaternary sea-level curve and calculated uplift rates. We identified 16 distinct palaeoshorelines from field observations and study of digital elevation models (DEMs), located along the footwall and hangingwall of the SCCF and the footwall of the offshore Ptolemy ‘trench’ fault. Cosmogenic dating constrains the ages of three palaeoshorelines as 76, 100 and 125 ka. We use these dates to guide a correlation of other mapped palaeoshorelines with Quaternary sea-level highstands between 200 and 980 ka with results implying that the uplift rate is constant through time at each of the 17 profile locations. Elastic half-space modelling implies that uplift in both the hangingwall and footwall of the SCCF is influenced by uplift related to offshore upper-plate faults, in addition to background regional uplift, perhaps from the subduction interface. By correlating palaeoshorelines across the active South Central Crete Fault, we derive a throw-rate of 0.41 mm/yr for this fault which can also be expressed as a slip rate of 0.58 mm/yr. The fault-specific earthquake recurrence interval, assuming repetition of 1.1 m slip events, is approximately 2700 years for the SCCF

Distributed normal faulting in the tip zone of the South Alkyonides Fault System, Gulf of Corinth, constrained using 36Cl exposure dating of late-Quaternary wave-cut platforms

The geometry, rates and kinematics of active faulting in the region close to the tip of a major crustal-scale normal fault in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece, are investigated using detailed fault mapping and new absolute dating. Fault offsets have been dated using a combination of 234U/230Th coral dates and in situ 36Cl cosmogenic exposure ages for sediments and wave-cut platforms deformed by the faults. Our results show that deformation in the tip zone is distributed across as many as eight faults arranged within ~700 m across strike, each of which deforms deposits and landforms associated with the 125 ka marine terrace of Marine Isotope Stage 5e. Summed throw-rates across strike achieve values as high as 0.3–1.6 mm/yr, values that are comparable to those at the centre of the crustal-scale fault (2–3 mm/yr from Holocene palaeoseismology and 3–4 mm/yr from GPS geodesy). The relatively high deformation rate and distributed deformation in the tip zone are discussed in terms of stress enhancement from rupture of neighbouring crustal-scale faults and in terms of how this should be considered during fault-based seismic hazard assessment

Slip on a mapped normal fault for the 28th December 1908 Messina earthquake (Mw 7.1) in Italy

The 28th December 1908 Messina earthquake (Mw 7.1), Italy, caused >80,000 deaths and transformed earthquake science by triggering the study of earthquake environmental effects worldwide, yet its source is still a matter of debate. To constrain the geometry and kinematics of the earthquake we use elastic half-space modelling on non-planar faults, constrained by the geology and geomorphology of the Messina Strait, to replicate levelling data from 1907 – 1909. The novelty of our approach is that we (a) recognise the similarity between the pattern of vertical motions and that of other normal faulting earthquakes, and (b) for the first time model the levelling data using the location and geometry of a well-known offshore capable fault. Our results indicate slip on the capable fault with a dip to the east of 70o and 5 m dip-slip at depth, with slip propagating to the surface on the sea bed. Our work emphasises that geological and geomorphological observations supporting maps of capable non-planar faults should not be ignored when attempting to identify the sources of major earthquakes

Spatial migration of temporal earthquake clusters driven by the transfer of differential stress between neighbouring fault/shear-zone structures

Uncertainty concerning the processes responsible for slip-rate fluctuations associated with temporal clustering of surface faulting earthquakes is a fundamental, unresolved issue in tectonics, because strain-rates accommodated by fault/shear-zone structures are the key to understanding the viscosity structure of the crust and seismic hazard. We constrain the timing and amplitude of slip-rate fluctuations that occurred on three active normal faults in central Italy over a time period of 20–30 kyrs, using in situ 36Cl cosmogenic dating of fault planes. We identify five periods of rapid slip on individual faults lasting a few millennia, separated time periods of up to 10 millennia with low or zero slip-rate. The rapid slip pulses migrated across the strike between the faults in two waves from SW to NE. We replicate this migration with a model where rapid slip induces changes in differential stress that drive changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that drive slip-rate variability on overlying brittle faults. Earthquakes increase the differential stress and strain-rate on underlying shear zones, which in turn accumulate strain, re-loading stress onto the overlying brittle fault. This positive feedback produces high strain-rate episodes containing several large magnitude surface faulting earthquakes (earthquake clusters), but also reduce the differential stress on the viscous portions of neighbouring fault/shear-zones slowing the occurrence of large-magnitude surface faulting earthquakes (earthquake anticlusters). Shear-zones on faults experiencing anticlusters continue to accumulate viscous strain at a lowered rate, and eventually this loads the overlying brittle fault to failure, initiating a period of rapid slip through the positive feedback process described above, and inducing lowered strain-rates onto neighbouring fault/shear-zones. We show that these patterns of differential stress change can replicate the measured earthquake clustering implied by the 36Cl data. The stress changes are related to the fault geometry in terms of distance and azimuth from the slipping structure, implying that (a) strain-rate and viscosity fluctuations for studies of continental rheology, and (b) slip-rates for seismic hazard purposes are to an extent predictable given knowledge of the fault system geometry

Surface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions

Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments

Out of phase Quaternary uplift-rate changes reveal normal fault interaction, implied by deformed marine palaeoshorelines

We have mapped and constrained the timing of tectonically deformed uplifted Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines in the Messina Strait, southern Italy, an area above a subduction zone containing active normal faults. The palaeoshorelines are preserved from up to thirteen Late Quaternary sea-level highstands, providing a record of the deformation over this timescale (~500 ka) for the Messina-Taormina Fault, the Reggio Calabria Fault and the Armo Fault. The palaeoshorelines reveal spatial patterns of uplift through time along the strike of these normal faults, and, given the across strike arrangement of the faults, also reveal how the contribution of each fault to the regional strain-rate progressed through time. The results reveal that the uplift rates mapped within the fault hangingwalls and footwalls were not constant through time, with a marked change in the location of strain accumulation at ~50 ka. The uplift rates, once converted into throw-rates, imply that the three faults comprised similar throw-rates prior to ~50 ka (in the range 0.77–0.96 mm/yr), with the Armo and Reggio Calabria faults then switching to lower rates (0.32 mm/yr and 0.33 mm/yr respectively), whilst the Messina-Taormina Fault accelerated to 2.34 mm/yr. The regional extension rate, gained by summing the implied heave rates across the three faults, was maintained through time despite this re-organisation of local strain accumulation at ~50 ka. We explain these out-of-phase fault throw-rate changes during the constant-rate regional extension conditions as due to interactions between these upper plate normal faults. We finally discuss how fault throw-rates changing through time may affect a long-term seismic hazard assessment within active normal fault systems

The relationships between regional Quaternary uplift, deformation across active normal faults and historical seismicity in the upper plate of subduction zones: The Capo D’Orlando Fault, NE Sicily

In order to investigate deformation within the upper plate of the Calabrian subduction zone we have mapped and modelled a sequence of Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines tectonically-deformed by the Capo D’Orlando normal fault, NE Sicily, which forms part of the actively deforming Calabrian Arc. In addition to the 1908 Messina Strait earthquake (Mw 7.1), this region has experienced damaging earthquakes, possibly on the Capo D’Orlando Fault, however, it is not considered by some to be a potential seismogenic source. Uplifted Quaternary palaeoshorelines are preserved on the hangingwall of the Capo D’Orlando Fault, indicating that hangingwall subsidence is counteracted by regional uplift, likely because of deformation associated with subduction/collision. We attempt to constrain the relationship between regional uplift, crustal extensional processes and historical seismicity, and we quantify both the normal and regional deformation signals. We report uplift variations along the strike of the fault and use a synchronous correlation technique to assign ages to palaeoshorelines, facilitating calculation of uplift rates and the fault throw-rate. Uplift rates in the hangingwall increase from 0.4 mm/yr in the centre of the fault to 0.89 mm/yr beyond its SW fault tip, suggesting 0.5 mm/yr of fault related subsidence, which implies a throw-rate of 0.63 ± 0.02 mm/yr, and significant seismic hazard. Overall, we emphasise that upper plate extension and related vertical motions complicate the process of deriving information on the subduction/collision process, such as coupling and slip distribution on the subduction interface, parameters that are commonly inferred for other subduction zones without considering upper plate deformation

Regional deformation and offshore crustal local faulting as combined processes to explain uplift through time constrained by investigating differentially-uplifted Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines: the foreland Hyblean Plateau, SE Sicily.

Quaternary uplift is well documented in SE Sicily, a region prone to damaging seismic events, such as the 1693 “Val di Noto” Earthquake (Mw 7.4), the largest seismic event reported within the Italian Earthquake Catalogue, whose seismogenic source is still debated and, consequently, the long-term seismic hazard is poorly-understood. However, the spatial variation in the timing and rates of uplift are still debated, so it is difficult to link the dominant tectonic process(es) responsible for the uplift and the location of seismogenic sources. To better constrain the uplift rate, we have refined the dating of Late Quaternary marine terraces, using a synchronous correlation approach, driven by both published and newly obtained numerical age controls (234U/230Th dating on corals). This has allowed re-calculation of uplift rates along a N-S oriented transect within the Hyblean Plateau (HP) foreland region. Consequently, we have mapped the geometry of palaeoshorelines along a coastline-parallel transect, and hence the rates of uplift. The results suggest increasing uplift rate from south to north across the HP, and that uplift rates have remained constant through the late Quaternary. This spatially-changing but temporally constant uplift places constraints on the proportion of uplift produced by regional geodynamic processes versus produced by local faults, such as an offshore E-dipping active normal fault. We discuss these new findings in terms of the long-term seismic hazard for one of the most seismically-active regions in the Mediterranean Basin